Champions League 2012/13 - Verdict

They’ve only got 4 points in 4 games, lie 8 points off the lead at home with their manager calling their latest performance clueless and haven’t won the trophy for 10 years, so it will surprise some to see me calling Real Madrid fantastic value for Champions League glory, but the trophy’s not won in September and there’s a ton of reasons to think Jose Mourinho can seal his place in footballing legend and take the Champions League with a third different club this year.

A run of 5 defeats at the last 16 stage had represented a significant mental hurdle for Los Blancos to pass but the return of Jose Mourinhio has changed everything and in the last two season they’ve won a trophy alongside a semi-final, beating arch rivals Barcelona on both occasions to seal triumphs in the Copa Del Rey and La Liga respectively. The merit of those triumphs is massive considering the mental importance that beating Barcelona in this competition represents – since 2006/07 any team that has beaten Barcelona over two legs has gone onto win the competition – and they finally look ready to take the glory for themselves. Too stoic and defensive when Pepe’s red card turned the tie in Barcelona’s favour two years ago, and a touch too wasteful when going down to an excellent Bayern side last year only on penalties, it can be third time lucky for a team that has only improved since the arrival of The Special one.

Having the manager is one thing but the personnel is a crucial part and only Barcelona can claim to having an equally talented squad. Iker Casillas, Sergio Ramos and Pepe were three of the outstanding players at Euro 2012 for teams that reached at least the semi-finals (Spain didn’t let a goal in past the Group stage for the third successive tournament), while Alvaro Arbeloa too played his part in the Spainsh triumph. Marcelo divides opinion but he’s a class act going forward and his wing back qualities are essential to the team’s attacking depth.

Their midfield can now arguably be put on the same level as Barcelona with Xabi Alonso, Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira usually operating in a triangle which now has Luka Modric fighting for a place, highlighting the depth in the squad. Michael Essien may also be a shrewd free signing to provide backup cover – certainly he’s not totally finished yet – and Kaka still has something to offer if they should give him a chance to shine that he’s been denied for so very long.  An attack which centres around the phenomenal Cristiano Ronaldo can also boast Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain, while Jose Callejon is a phenomenal talent who can’t even get a game in such a talented side and Angel Di Maria is as good as anyone in world football cutting in from the wings.

Madrid last won in 2002 – who’d have thought that would be the last time they’d get their hands on the trophy? – when Zidane, Luis Figo and Roberto Carlos were lighting up the world stage before the barren period between 2005-2010 where they fell at the elusive hurdle that was be the last 16 in five straight seasons, but after 2 successive semi-finals in the last two years they now look ready to finally take the stage and make it a glorious 10 titles this year. A tough group with Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax has seen them drift a little but there’s less of a gap between them and Barcelona than ever before – they romped La Liga in no uncertain terms and could have had at least 3 more in the second leg of the Supercup when they overturned a 1^st leg deficit to win on away goals and they’re the clear choice at 9/2.

Barcelona have to be hugely respected and I couldn’t’ put anyone off them at 11/4. Widely considered to be one of the greatest sides of all time, they have won the competition three times and also got into three semi-finals since 2006 and any team that’s beaten them has gone onto win it, underlining their dominance on the European stage. They should have beaten Chelsea home and away last year but were only just edged out due to a combination of poor finishing and bad luck on their part and look sure to be at least at the semis once again.

At full flow they’re one of the best sights in sport and they’ve won the competition each year after failing to win it since 2007-08 (when the eventual winners United knocked them out), while the departure of Pep Guardiola isn’t too big a concern for a squad of such talent. Tito Villanova’s record in La Liga reads 4 wins from 4 games so far and the same key names which have made them famous are still there at their peak. Messi – who scored an incredible 72 times for club and country last season and has started off with six goals already- Iniesta and Xavi are still as good as ever and the little tweaks that are Alex Song and Jordi Alba should help keep things ticking over nicely at the Camp Nou.

The return of David Villa after nearly a year off with a broken leg is a heartening sight not just for football coinsessurs but also the Catalan faithful as his out and out striking ability gives them the touch of extra dimension needed to break down stubborn sides and they couldn’t have him back soon enough. We like Madrid much more than them but the 11/10 on any Spainish winner could prove to be a very smart way of covering our backs given the tournament record, while it also has Malaga and Valencia as “free bets” so to speak.

If the big two turn up on form then challenging them should be almost impossible but Serie A Champions Juventus might be the smart call at a whopping 20/1, back on the big stage for the first time since 2008/09. Not only have they kept the same squad that took them towards last season’s title, butThe arrival of Udinese startlets Mauricio Isla and Kwadwo Asamoah is a huge boost for them not only in terms of potential goals but also the quality of service in attack that the Biaconeri have. They drew a staggering 15 games last year on their way to the title but have tons more firepower this time around with those two on the wings and Nicklas Bendnter upfront. Some may laugh, but when the Dane shows his best form he can be a headache for anyone, as he showed at the Euros, and if motivated then it’s not hard to see him being the focal point of their attack, or at least better than Alessandro Matri, who scored just 10 goals last year.

But the real highlight of Juve is their defence. They conceded a staggering 20 goals last season thanks to an uber solid back 4 of Leonardo Bonucci, Giogio Chillni, Andrea Barzagil and Stefan Lichensteiner, ably protected by the stoic and solid Sebastian Giovinco,and with the wily old Gianlugigi Buffon still in goal, they are as hard as any side to break down in Europe, and we all know how solid defences are so important against the European elite in the latter stages of the competition these days.

Getting out of a group which contains Chelsea and Shaktar Donesk will be no easy matter but the way in which they’ve stormed to three straight Serie A wins suggests that they can handle themselves at the top level and are playing at least as well as last season. With the attacking threat from last season at least doubled, and confidence at a real high, there looks to be a ton of mileage in a price of 20/1.

No country has as strong a recent record as England in this competition but they may just fall short this season. Chelsea lucked out in winning the competition last year but people foreget that they’d been more than owed a few breaks after the last few years – Tom Henning Overbo’s name is still considered blasphemy around Stamford Bridge – and they’re in the strange position of trying to retain their title with a stronger side (at the very least in an attacking sense) having embarked upon one of the biggest spending sprees they’ve had in a long while, bringing in Eden Hazard for £32 million, Oscar for £24 million, and Marko Marin for what could prove to be a relatively cheap looking £7 million if he lives upto his earlier potential from Werder Bremen.

Hazard – often seen as one of the world’s most promising players at Lille – scored 20 goals for Lille last season (just one less than Giroud) and also chipped in with a sensational 15 assists – while he’s able to play as winger or a second striker, which is immensely important in terms of versatility. Oscar looked exceptional at times during the Olympics and will be crucial figure in the centre of midfield. Juan Mata is one of the best midfielders in the Premiership already – his figure of 13 assists last season was one behind David Silva – so he should be mightily relieved to have two other players on his level to share responsibilities for distribution to a happier Fernando Torres than last season at the least.

However there’s no questioning that they were lucky winners and it’s hard to see them beating either Spanish giant again over two legs while it will be interesting to see how a more open tactical side deals with the latter stages from a defensive point of view. They should launch a bold bid but find one or two good at least.

The Manchester Clubs were dominant like never before in the Premiership last season when finishing 19 points clear but both have significant problems holding them back this season. United have signed Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie to give tremendous firepower to an already attacking team that just loves to get forward but a leaky defence cost them badly last year and those problems haven’t been addressed this season, with a lack of balance in midfield and between defence and attack likely to leave them incredibly vulnerable during the latter stages of the competition.

For many – on paper at least – City have the stronger first XI and squad, and their spine of Yaya Toure, David Silva, Vincent Kompany, Joe Hart and Sergio Aguero is arguably the strongest in England, and a brutal combination of players for any team to possess. While Mancini was lucky with injuries last year, he can still count on a number of strong additions, with his striking power unrivalled given how Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, and the rejuvenated Carlos Tevez.

Yaya Toure is a bulldozer of a midfielder who has sublime skill for his size and was crucial in breaking down defences last season – his importance will be heightened with so many teams sure to play for a point at Eastlands this season – David Silva is as good as any midfielder outside of Spain’s big two at the moment, with his 15 assists and 6 goals from last season proving just as crucial as Aguero’s strikes.

Their defence is the best in the division with Kompany – one of the world’s outstanding centre backs – at the heart of a rock solid team, and for all that nobody in the back 4 can call themselves on his level, Lescott and Zabaleta are not at all bad and even Gael Clichy seems an improved player on the model that cost Arsenal so often, so it’s easy to see why they’re just 10/1 for glory. However they were lacking when upto this level last season and have landed a group that’s just as bad once again, so will have to be at their best from day. If they out of the group they have to be feared but I’d much rather take a reduced price on them after the group stages. They should have improved from their first outing in this division last year but there’s not going to be a Villarreal in this group for them to get 4 points from with ease and they had the luxury of Bayern Munich resting players on the last matchday.

Arsenal have a wonderful midfield headed by the brilliant Santi Cazorla – who has been simply superb so far – while Lukas Podolski’s two goals are a massive boost for a midfielder who can be world class on his day but has struggled away from Cologne in the past. Jack Wilshere will be present for the last 16 if they make it there and Abou Diaby has been in top form of late but there’s a worry that they just aren’t good enough against the elite of Europe as was shown last year by AC Milan.

Milan did that demolition job with the services of Zaltan Ibrahimovic and Thaigo Silva, but both have now been sold to PSG, who in turn have been chopped into just 20/1 off the back of yet more heavy spending. Milan lack the firepower upfront to deliver a proper challenge –while their defence may leak later in the competition – and PSG might need another year or two before they can think of winning it, and the same goes for Zenit, who have a diabolical record on the road in this competition.

Borussia Dortmund are interesting because we know they’re just so much better than last year’s dreadful showing and they have the tools to back up their talent – Mats Hummels and Neven Subortic are a top quality pair of defenders – while Mario Gotze, Marco Reus, Ivan Persic and Jackub Blascikowski are top quality players, although I feel much the same way about them as I do Manchester City – they have to get through the group first of all.

Rivals Bayern Munich might be value at 14/1 to right the wrongs of last year, where they came agonisingly close to winning the trophy only to deny themselves glory through a string of missed Mario Gomez chances last year when they dominated the final after knocking out Real Madrid. Convincing winners of the group of death last year when brushing aside Napoli and Manchester City in style, they were undoubtedly the most impressive side barring the big two last year and have one again splashed the cash in a bid to make it a special 5 European Cups.

The arrival of Swiss winger Xherdan Shaqiri, Brazilian defender Danté from Gladbach and the two strikers Claudio Pizarro from Werder and Mario Mandzukic from Wolfsburg just bolster up and already attacking rich squad which already boasted the core of the German national side that has made the semi-finals at least of their last three major tournaments.

Less reliance on Mario Gomez – who suffered big time stage freeze in the final after such a successful tournament during which he scored 12 goals – can only be a good thing and Sahiqiri can fill in for one of Robben or Ribery, two of the world’s best wingers on their day. Javi Martinez was an eyewatering amount of money from Bilbao but you can’t deny his talents bolster their midfield as well and everything looks set for yet another big run at this competition.

Advice

5 pts Real Madrid (9/2 general)

6 pts Any Spanish winner (11/10 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Bayern Munich (14/1 Bet Victor)

1 pt Juventus (20/1 Hills, Ladbrokes)