Thursday, 13 September 2012

Today's Racing - 13th September 2012


Aidan and Joseph O’Brien have one of the biggest days of their career on Saturday when Camelot goes for the Triple Crown but they both have a strong chance of getting their time on Town More off to the best possible start when Parliament Square goes in the Weatherbys Insurance £300,000 2-y-o Stakes today (2.20). Thought of highly enough to be pitched in against the likes of Dawn Approach first time out, he finally fulfilled the promise that he showed when fifth in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes on just his second start when winner of a Tipperary Listed event in ground that he wouldn’t have enjoyed – the same surface he got turned over at ¼ on just two starts previously – and he then posted a big career best when third in the Prix Morny last time behind stablemate George Vancouver and Reckless Abandon, regarded as one of the best juveniles seen this season. He’s got to give weight all round today, but if showing his best form, he has to have a big chance and can defy topweight today.

Hototo, winner of the Listed Windsor Castle that saw Parliament Square (far left) back in fifth, has since gone from strength to strength and paid his way when landing the DBS Premier Yearling Stakes at York last time, having benefitted from the step up to 6 furlongs after finding the Molecomb too quick for him at Goodwood – naturally so given the nature of the track. In a similar contest today there should be no reason not for him to give another bold effort, so 7/1 looks more than reasonable.


Others who got a good look in were Flyman, who comes from a yard that has a great record here especially in these kinds of races - Richard Fahey supplied the winner, third and fifth two years ago – while Indian Jade is better off with Hototo for his eighth towards him last time. Both are fairly priced at 6 and 14/1 respectively, while   The Gold Cheongsam – underlining the claims of how strong a race the Albany was this year - has strong claims on the form of her latest improved win in a decent Newmarket fillies´ nursery, receives weight all round here, and should improve further, but this too is a step up in class from that and at nearly double the price I’d prefer to go with two group horses.

Speaking of group horses, Senatril is well worth another chance in the Sceptre Stakes (1.50). A major flop latest at York – a track which many horses fail to handle for one reason or another – one imagines that you wouldn’t be getting 4/1 if she came here off the back of her Royal Ascot effort, where she was a very unlucky looking second in a strong renewal of the Jersey Stakes. Aljamaheer – just behind her – has since franked the form by coming a desperately unlucky third at Goodwood and then a respectable fourth in the Totesport Mile, and William Haggas filly holds the best form chance of the lot based on her Ascot run.


Wild Coco, Goodwood 2.8.12
The feature race of the Day – the Park Hill Stakes (2.55) looks likely to come down to Wild Coco (left) and Estimate (far right) on recent form, unless Kaliani can find her best form from earlier in the season. If she does so, 8/1 will be a huge price, but Wild Coco should once again take the beating following her successful return in the Lillie Langtry Stakes where she beat the Queen’s filly Estimate convcingly. This track should suit the Queen’s Vase winner more, but there’s a sense that she needs 2 miles at least and a 42 day break will allow for Sir Henry Cecil’s filly to recover in good time. Ambivalent is another to consider but I get the feeling Wild Coco is a step up on Set To Music, which leaves us with the favourite.

Advice

1 pt each/way Parliament Square, 2.20 Doncaster (7/1 Sportingbet)

1 pt win Hototo, 2.20 Doncaster (7/1 general)

2 pts win Sentaril, 1.50 Doncaster (7/2 general)

1 pt win Wild Coco, 2.55 Doncaster (15/8 general)




  

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