The Road to Brazil has already started in South America and
many other places but the 5 home nations – I don’t believe Ireland shouldn’t be
counted - take their first big steps towards Rio today with the prospects of
making it looking bleak for some and bright for others. A lot has passed in the
last two years for all 5 sides, some good and bad, but it’s arguable that gradual
personnel changes have made the likes of Wales and Ireland – who made their first
major tournament for eight years when going through to Euro 2012 – a lot
stronger than at the beginning of the century while Scotland’s Craig Levein has
often said that he feels his team are much closer to the finished project.
However, there are a few setbacks in those plans. Ireland
have not only drawn Germany – all but unbeatable in qualifying - but Also
Sweden, who themselves are rated more likely to snab the second spot. Wales were
on a serious upwards curve two years ago but the untimely death of Gary Speed
has had a serious effect on them and it remains to be seen if they and Scotland
can cope with a group that contains Croatia, Serbia and Belgium all fighting
for a spot. Belgium have come across an exceptional crop of players over the
past two years which give them a first team with such talents as Thibaut
Courtois, Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen, Steven Defour, Axel Witsel, Moussa
Dembélé, Eden Hazard and Marouane Fellaini. It was a disappointment to many not
to see them make Euro 2012 although they were in a strong group with Germany
and Turkey, but they should have learned a lot since and Marc Willmots can lead
his side to victory in the Group at a fair looking 9/4, with Serbia not as
strong upfront as they are defensively and Croatia having lost Billic since the
Euros.
Speaking of young, progressive, talented teams, Italy marked
themselves down as back in the big time when storming to the final of Euro
2012, and with a side hopefully not scarred by their below par performance in
the final when thrashed by a Spain side marking their place in history. Age has
often been the question with the Azzuri but a roll call of forwards which reads
Lorenzo Insigne, Matia Destro, Stephan Al Sharaawy, Fabio Borini and Mario
Balotelli is a seriously talented one and they may well be just as strong in
two years’ time, if not better.
The fight for second behind them in the group is sure to be
tight but while the Cezch Republic were very fortunate to make the quarter finals
of Euros 2012 in a weak group, Denmark held their own in the Group of Death at
Euro 2012, beating a lacklustre Netherlands and running Portugal and Germany
close, so their tenth place in the world rankings is no fluke and the 6/5 on
them making the top 2 - effectively a
match bet with the Czechs – just has to be hovered up straight away and looks
to be the best available bet of the qualifiers.
There was also a temptation to back Turkey – put up as quite
a shrewd bet – to overturn Holland in Group D, but their record in qualifying
is too strong to properly ignore and there’s no value in any of the other
groups at all from an outright perspective, so look to Uruguay to top the
CONEMBOL section of qualifying. The only unbeaten team so far in the group, lying
a point behind Chile with a game in hand, Uruguay have at times looked a class
apart from the rest – they’ve scored 14 goals so far in just 5 games – and look
value to topple Argentina in the race to Brazil.
Advice
4 pts Denmark to finish in top 2 of Group B (6/5 Bet Victor)
2 pts Belgium to win Group A (9/4 general)
1 pt Uruguay to win CONEMBOL Section (40/17 Bwin)
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