Irish Oaks 2010

Curragh 3.40
Darley Irish Oaks (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €246,500 - 15 run
Pick: Mezzenah (win)
Akdarena: Performed at a useful level last year but step up in trip and visor have been the making of her this season, leading all the way to hold off 99 rated Unity before routing good field of high class older fillies in Blue Wind Stakes, galloping field into the ground; Unable to do same in Epsom Oaks, fading into sixth, and may have been benefitted by overly generous lead when third last time in Pretty Polly Stakes.

Awe Inspring: Useful filly although she has taken some time to come to hand; Hacked up in Gowran Park race but has been down the field in Oaks at Epsom and Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot since; No reason to think she'll make any greater impact in this.

Brazilan Beauty: Needed drop to 7f and blinkers in order to win a maiden at sixth attempt; This likely to be too much.

Crystal Gal: Hasn’t really progressed as expected from her maiden win first time out and is likely to find this too much based on her form behind Adkerena and Remember When, despit being bred to stay.

Dance On By: Has struggled when tried at listed/Group 3 level and her to make good pace.

Desert Sage: 4th in listed event at Newbury underlines she has plenty to find on form; Not exposed fully and idled when landing Chepstow maiden, so while not impossible outsider in open race, unlikely winner.

Eldalil: Typical Stoute improver who is making rapid strides, coming wide and from the back when well beaten second to Hibaayeb in Ribblesdale at Ascot last time; Can only get better on just fourth start, and hugely encouraging that she comes her off the back of extremely impressive workout.

Hibaayeb: Improved all the time and is still rather unexposed on the basis of her 4 runs as a 2 year old, which included a Fillies’ Mile win on her last start as a 2 year old; Run in 1,000 Guineas can be forgiven and effort in Prix Saint Alary was up to this grade; Romped home in Ribblesdale Stakes and every chance on that form, so well worth her high position at top of market.

Ice Empress: Consistent but at a markedly lower level than this, winning a maiden at tenth attempt at Killarney; Here to ensure pace.
King’s Vintage: Daughter of Vintage Tipple (2003 Irish Oaks winner) but seemingly nowhere near that league based on her win on Tuesday.

Lady Lupus: Pacemaker here as well.

Meezenah: Behind 2 pattern winners on her two juvenile starts and improved no end for step up to 12 furlongs when trashing maiden field by 9 lengths; Stepped up hugely on that when an unlucky second in the Epsom Oaks, having been all at sea on track and meeting trouble in running; May well be helped by likely furious pace here and more galloping track, so huge chance.

Miss Jean Brodie: Built on debut third at Kempton in June to win steadily-run Doncaster maiden; Obviously useful if she’s being put into this race, but worrying that she could be just here on a fact-finding mission.
posted very promising efforts on all her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Took form to new level when close fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas, and maybe built on that again when 3rd in Epsom Oaks, but didn’t seem to stay that day and looked poor when laboured fourth in Pretty Polly last time; Although she was well beaten, she was left with 10 lengths to make up on the breakaway 1-2-3 but still has lot to do.

Snow Fairy: Improved for step up to 10 furlongs when showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes, beating the previous Oaks hope Pipette; Made mockery of her price when coming with powerful burst under brilliant ride form Ryan Moore to land Oaks, even with troubled passage; Obvious claims although there was only a neck between her and Meezenah and thigns could easily change.

VERDICT: A fascinating Irish Oaks even having had a lot of the interest ripped out of it by the failure of Rosanara (who would have had a great chance given the muddling formlines and her change of speed) to appear. In my mind the Epsom Oaks (predictably) is the race to concentrate on. Snow Fairy had the race set up for her when winning the Oaks and MEZZENAH, from a stronger pace and more galloping track (and less trouble) can overturn positions. Hibbayeb and Eldiaili are also fascinating contenders, especially the former as she has held her own easily in Group 1 company before. If the ground wee to soften, then it would be a fascinating spectacle.