This is Argentina’s first appearance in the Rugby
Championship but the only thing we’re asking is why that’s the case after their
impressive performances against South Africa in Mendoza and New Zealand and their
chances of winning are significantly bigger than odds of 11/2 would suggest for
today’s crunch encounter at the Gold Coast.
The Pumas have generally been superb barring a heavy defeat
away to South Africa, holding the Boks in Mendoza and then pushing New Zealand
a lot harder than a score of 21-5 suggested, having led 6-5 for a long period
of the game before drawing away steadily in the second half. Argentina's
aggression at the breakdown and in defence gave New Zealand a whole host of
problems and while the conditions in Wellington – wet and windy – helped them
no end for the first period, they were still in the game before the sin-binning
of blindside flanker Julio Farias Cabello for slapping the ball down, and they
had an attacking spell of their own before the end too which may have gone
unnoticed.
Put simply, Australia aren’t in the same parish as New
Zealand and a similar test could really give them problems this time around.
Robbie Deans has a strong winning record in his brief time but that could so
easily be different, with Wales unlucky not to have won all three tests in
midsummer while they were roundly hammered by New Zealand on an even larger
scale than they were In the World Cup semi. They did rally from 7 points down
to beat South Africa but were flattered by the scoreline given the string of
missed penalties that the Boks had after failing to make the best of their
first half dominance, and they have yet another crushing injury blow with Will
Genia will miss the remainder of the Rugby Championship and will be sidelined
for at least six months after rupturing the ACL in his right knee last week.
With Pocock and Howill absent, Genia was the best creative influence left in
the side and his absence could have a big effect upon the performance of Quade
Cooper especially, which in turn hurts the creative spine of a team that has scored
just five tries in their past five matches.
They may be outgunned upfront, as they have been by many top
international sides in recent years, with Lobbe (arguably one of the best
players of the Championship so far) and Roncero giving huge grunt to the pack
and the scrums, while better conditions should help them to be more effective
in the lineout. Berrick Barnes’s superb boot should see them come home infront according to the layers, but it might
be a very testing affair for them and a handicap of 14 points looks to be an
excellent start for the visitors, along with the first half start of 6 also
looking like value given how strongly the pumas tend to start. And last but not
least, Australia to win by 1-5 points looks far too big at a tasty 8/1 to
ignore.
Advice
4 pts Argentina +14 (10/11 Stan James)
1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (8/1 Sportingbet)
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