Ryder Cup 2012

They key decisions involved in the choice making of seeing who wins or loses at this year’s Ryder Cup have never been so varied or wide ranging. Approaching the start of today’s epic battle at Medinah, exceptionally strong cases can be made for both the USA and Europe in what has to be one of the closest Ryder Cups on paper ever seen in the modern era.

Do you go with the home advantage of the Americans – not forgetting the small statistic that six of the last seven Ryder Cups have been won by the hosts - who have a combined world ranking of 146,(81 spots better than the Europeans), seven major champions, Woods, Mickelson, Watson, Bradley, Simpson, Zach Johnson and Furyk), 5 of the top 10 in the PGA Tour's Birdie or Better Conversation percentage stats over this season, have lost only once at home in 15 years, an extremely proficient captaining setup – Davis Love Jr has already wasted no time in using many of Paul Azinger’s winning methods and Fred Couples has seen the USA Team to victory in the last two renewals of the Presidents Cup – and to boot, the whole of the Medinah course and it’s 50,000 strong Chicago galleries behind them.

Likewise, do you go with the experienced and strong Europeans, who can boast eight winning records in the tournament - win percentage is over 50 percent – with even the three who aren’t in that bracket (Rory McIlroy, Peter Hanson and Francesco Molinari) all having contributed to Europe's victory at Celtic Manor. World No.1 Rory Mcilroy Luke Donald (No. 3 overall world ranking), Lee Westwood (No. 4), Justin Rose (No. 5), Graeme McDowell (No. 18), Sergio Garcia (No. 19), Peter Hanson (No. 25), Ian Poulter (No. 26), Paul Lawrie (No. 28), Francesco Molinari (No. 31), Martin Kaymer (No. 32) and Nicolas Colaserts (No. 35), all give them just as strong a team as the US on the work rankings – even if there is a gap of 81 spots in the accumulative rankings?

 

As has been noted by many, playing in the US is also far from a new thing for the Europeans. McIlroy had always been tipped for big things but made his name in the US and was clearly the Fed Ex Cup’s best player despite missing out on the overall victory, something that will matter little to him with this motivation, Westwood, Rose, McDowell, Kaymer and especially Garcia and Luke Donald (more on them later) have excellent US records, large fan bases and even homes in the case of Westwood, who has moved to try and capture an elusive major triumph. The Europeans have the better matchplay records, more senior figures, have won 6 of the last 8, and have a combined record of 60 wins, 32 losses, and 18 halved matches compared to 41 wins, 59 losses and 16 halves for their counterparts.

Admittedly one would say the Americans have the better players for Medinah – which has been completely changed from the tough course that greeted Tiger Woods on his way to two major triumphs in 1999 and 2006 at the request of Davis Love Jr – but the European’s foursomes (they lead 37-27) and fourballs (36-28) records may give them the fast start they need and with momentum in the Ryder Cup being such a crucial element of success, it’s very tempting to back the Europeans at a big 13/8 considering that their one hammering here can be explained in large part to Nick Faldo’s awful captaincy. If they can get into an early lead and nullify the crowds then the chances of victory become very immediate and significantly greater than the odds suggest, and just 8 years ago Europe claimed a record 18.5 points here when hammering the home team after a strong start. If the visitors get a lead again then it might not be long before the galleries are quietened down. From that perspective Europe might make appeal at 13/8 in the long run for the Trophy, but whatever happens this should be desperately close and with half of the last ten Ryder Cups have finished with a score of 14 ½ - 13 ½, then both sides to win by that scoreline makes great appeal on value terms.  

I couldn’t put anyone off backing either side to win the trophy – at the prices the Europeans represent value but the USA only went down by a point at a raucous Celtic Manor and will fancy their chances of turning things around on their own turf – but the strongest selection offered here is the 4/5 on the USA winning the Sunday singles, an event in which they have an extremely strong record (they have 43.5 points to Europe’s 40.5) despite two thrashings in recent cups and 3 thrashings in recent years. This is one of the best squad of putters that they’ve had, and regardless of the situation heading into the final day, their class should shine on extremely sharp greens with the course basically made for the likes of Watson, Dufner, and Woods to shine while giving generous helping hands to Phil Mickleson and Zach Johnson.

Advice

1 pt USA to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (10/1 general)

1 pt Europe to win 14 ½ - 13 ½ (11/1 general)

4 pts USA to win Singles (4/5 Ladbrokes)