Sunday, 16 September 2012

Arc Trials Day - Prix Niel

Longchamp 2.40
Qatar Prix Niel (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner €74,374

Advice: 1 pt win Last Train (9/4 Stan James)

Owner detailsLast Train: Unraced at two and progressing hand over fist, just like his close relations in Rail Link and Powerscourt; Took his time to get going hen an unlucky-ish second in the Grand Prix De Paris but that form stil the best in the field and will take some catching anyway.; One to beat.

Owner detailsBayir: Made it four from 5 in impressive style when quickening away smarty to land to land the Secratariat Stakes at Arlington, adding to the Prix Eugene Adam, both races over 1m2f; Imagine that speed will stand him in very good stead for what’s likely to be a slowly run race today and connections know exactly how to prepare for this race, so high on shortlist.

Owner detailsKesampour: Always been highly rated (Derby was said to be high on agenda at one point) and lost no castle when giving away his unbeaten record in the Prix Du Jockey Club, coming wide when fourth behind Saonis; Is bred to improve for the extra two furlongs today amongst other things although big worry that slow pace will curtail his chances.
Owner detailsSmoking Sun: Looked as if he needed longer tip when staying on fifth in Deavuille Group 2 when last seen but this not likely to be all out test of stamina and well behind on form too.

Owner detailsSaonois: Triple winner on AW before collecting first turf win in 1m2f Group 3 in April and then reversed form with Kesmapour to take the Jockey Club in controversial circumstances at Chantilly; Can’t fault attitude but many others badly blocked in their run that day so this a real acid test of his credentials for bigger prizes; Not underestimated here but others preferred.
Owner detailsRemus De La Tour: Made all to win Group 3 at Deavuille which suddenly looks very attractive when you see that Masterstroke was behind in second but unwise t take that form too seriously even with the fact that he’s likely to get an easy lead in this race; One or two should be at least two strong.

VERDICT: An interesting race not just for Arc purposes, with the Prix Du Jockey Club winner Saonois making his reappearance after winning in such controversial circumstances in one of the roughest recent renewals. It remains to be seen if he can confirm the form with Kesampour (who is bred to enjoy a longer trip, although both should run well and give a bold bid of themselves, but ready preference is for LAST TRAIN to carry on emulating his sire Rail Link and take another step towards Paris with victory in this, which is so often used by Fabre for his No.1 arc contender – 5 since 1994 have been won by a Fabre 3yo. If the pace isn’t too slow, then he should be the one to beat today. 

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