F1 is back with us after a long summer break and back in massive
style at one of the most famous circuits in the history of motorsport, Spa
Francochamps. With Fernando Alonso a handy 40 points clear going into the
second half of the season but presumably not in the fastest car and certainly
not far clear enough to call it his own, there’s absolutely everything to play
for and it should make for some thrills and spills throughought the day.
McLaren had been showing steady improvement after a dire mid-season
– initially they had set the pace – and an upgraded rear wing saw Jenson Button
smash his opponents in the pole position race with a stunning lap almost three
tenths of a second faster than the rest of the field. The most notable thing
(barring the fact that Button's pole position time was three-tenths quicker
than his nearest rival, along with Lewis Hamilton not having the upgrade) would
be that Button was consistently amongst the best times through all 3 sessions,
and that his pole was never in doubt from the end of Q2. Button – who worked
his way to sixth in Hungary despite a botched strategy – is a rightful
favourite at 7/5, but others may catch up to the McLaren in race conditions and
Spa is one of the most conducive tracks to overtaking.
The hilly, twisting and fast lay-out is what has made it a
favourite for drivers and fans alike while
the area also seems to have a climate of its own – it's been known to be
bucketing it down at one part of the track, while completely dry at another
section. Straight-line speed and aerodynamicism are all important – explaining how
Button’s lower downforce set-up gave him the edge in qualifying – but the race
could prove to be a different story. Button has the race in the palm of his
hand with the pace he showed on Saturday, and may well win, but it might pay to
side with two teams who have cars that excel on the long sweeping straights and
corners here.
It’s one of the biggest injustices in sport that Lotus haven’t
won a Grand Prix so far this season – namely due to errors at the beginning of
the season, and poor qualifying, but they’ve had few circuits that will suit as
much as this and their duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean can improve
upon their initial positions of third and eighth respectively.
Raikkonen – who is one of 5 drivers that can still be called
a title contender on 116 points – has a second here that is second to none. He
has won every single race that he’s finishes here, and it would be 5-5 had rain
not come down to with two laps to go in 2008. He won on a Ferrari devoid of
pace in 2009, and won from 10th in 2004, which tells us all we need
to know about his proficiency from any spot in this grid. An excellent second
in Hungary from fifth, he is the clear choice at the prices, and the 3/1 makes
great appeal.
Pastor Maldonado is incredibly infuriating but does a real
job when he gets the chance and while his recklessness demoted him to sixth, it
was still an excellent performance for a car that really excels over race
distance. Long, sweeping tracks suit the Williams with its steady pace and high
average speeds, and over the 44 laps here he can be expected to throw down a
big challenge. He can make the top 6. *
And last but not least, a double points
Finish is not out of the question for the solid and consistent Force India
team, both of whom seem to excel upon long straights. 9/2 with Ladbrokes is certainly
an oversight.
Advice
2 pts Kimi Rakkonen (3/1 general)
1 pt Force India double finish (9/2 Ladbrokes)
*This was written before Pastor, being his usual self, decided
that he would jump start. Future world champion. When he screws that head on.
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