Sunday, 2 September 2012

Belgian Grand Prix Preview 2012


F1 is back with us after a long summer break and back in massive style at one of the most famous circuits in the history of motorsport, Spa Francochamps. With Fernando Alonso a handy 40 points clear going into the second half of the season but presumably not in the fastest car and certainly not far clear enough to call it his own, there’s absolutely everything to play for and it should make for some thrills and spills throughought the day.

Jenson ButtonMcLaren had been showing steady improvement after a dire mid-season – initially they had set the pace – and an upgraded rear wing saw Jenson Button smash his opponents in the pole position race with a stunning lap almost three tenths of a second faster than the rest of the field. The most notable thing (barring the fact that Button's pole position time was three-tenths quicker than his nearest rival, along with Lewis Hamilton not having the upgrade) would be that Button was consistently amongst the best times through all 3 sessions, and that his pole was never in doubt from the end of Q2. Button – who worked his way to sixth in Hungary despite a botched strategy – is a rightful favourite at 7/5, but others may catch up to the McLaren in race conditions and Spa is one of the most conducive tracks to overtaking.

The hilly, twisting and fast lay-out is what has made it a favourite for drivers and fans alike while  the area also seems to have a climate of its own – it's been known to be bucketing it down at one part of the track, while completely dry at another section. Straight-line speed and aerodynamicism are all important – explaining how Button’s lower downforce set-up gave him the edge in qualifying – but the race could prove to be a different story. Button has the race in the palm of his hand with the pace he showed on Saturday, and may well win, but it might pay to side with two teams who have cars that excel on the long sweeping straights and corners here.

It’s one of the biggest injustices in sport that Lotus haven’t won a Grand Prix so far this season – namely due to errors at the beginning of the season, and poor qualifying, but they’ve had few circuits that will suit as much as this and their duo of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean can improve upon their initial positions of third and eighth respectively.

Raikkonen – who is one of 5 drivers that can still be called a title contender on 116 points – has a second here that is second to none. He has won every single race that he’s finishes here, and it would be 5-5 had rain not come down to with two laps to go in 2008. He won on a Ferrari devoid of pace in 2009, and won from 10th in 2004, which tells us all we need to know about his proficiency from any spot in this grid. An excellent second in Hungary from fifth, he is the clear choice at the prices, and the 3/1 makes great appeal.  

Pastor Maldonado is incredibly infuriating but does a real job when he gets the chance and while his recklessness demoted him to sixth, it was still an excellent performance for a car that really excels over race distance. Long, sweeping tracks suit the Williams with its steady pace and high average speeds, and over the 44 laps here he can be expected to throw down a big challenge. He can make the top 6. *

And last but not least, a double points Finish is not out of the question for the solid and consistent Force India team, both of whom seem to excel upon long straights. 9/2 with Ladbrokes is certainly an oversight.

Advice

2 pts Kimi Rakkonen (3/1 general)

1 pt Force India double finish (9/2 Ladbrokes)

*This was written before Pastor, being his usual self, decided that he would jump start. Future world champion. When he screws that head on. 

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