Today's Racing - 30th November 2011

2 pts win Escortmen, 1.25 Hereford

A very talented horse but a notably hard puller over hurdles, when he was super impressive when landing Dovecote by 14 lengths on bridle. That race fell in front of him to an extent, having been a strongly run affair on soft ground but it was still an impressive win which marked hum as a sersious prospect. He wasn’t shown to his best light by fast ground at Aintree later that year and proved he’s got guts to go with class when landing competitive limited handicap on first start this season (recovered from terrible mistake at last) before his Christmas Hurdle disappointment.

Fences haven’t been that great for him, getting turned over on his debut before falling at Kempton last time, but he’s worth a chance and 2 miles – having not gotten further than the third on his first try at 2 miles over fences – should suit him.

Kumbeshwar will be popular for many here but it’s a slight worry that he’s not shown the form he did as a juvenile in two runs this season, and that’s only just enough to shift a tight vote in what could turn into a match if the speed shown over hurdles comes to light over fences.

1 pt each/way Grand Vision, 1.55 Hereford

Another strong contest for the track with plenty holding chances, which could feasibly make Colin Tizzard’s Grand Vision a bigger price than he should be on form. Having kept on for a good second behind an impressive winner at Chepstow, he was third behind two more good types at Exeter last time, messing up his chances with a poor round of jumping. That form has been let down by the winner (who might well have been amiss when running like a drain at Newcastle) but it’s been well backed up enough by those in behind and he should be upto placing here.

Gullinbursti’s debut win makes him the one to beat but a big penalty for that takes a lot of the appeal from him, and it’s the same for Forgotten Gold,  who is stepped up in class following on from an easy win at Ludlow.

10 length pointing winner Final Gift must be respected for Paul Nicholls on his rules debut although it seems that form isn’t special and Godsmejudge was beaten at odds on last time out, so neither makes a huge amount of appeal. 

Monksfield Novice Hurdle 2011

12.45 Navan

Irish Form Book 'Monksfield' Novice Hurdle (grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €24,375

Advice: 2 pts win Texas Jack (9/4 Hills)

Rebel Fitz: Good bumper performer, winning twice before Grade 2 fourth; Buzzy character not stopped his progress over hurdles, winning three out of 5 starts, notably impressive in drawing away from useful opponent at Cork; Has to concede 3lbs to useful rivals but looked good so far.

Jetson: Useful in bumpers and over hurdles for Noel Meade, showing good form when runner up twice; Won nicely enough on reappearance when using that experience to good effect; That form gotten a boost from second and not hard to see him going nicely.

Just For Joe: Followed up his Cork bumper win with ease in maiden hurdle at Roscommon , couldn’t give the weight to useful next time out winner at Galway last time out; Has plenty on his plate here again.

Make A Track: Looked to have a promising future when unbeaten in two bumpers for David Arbuthnot and progressed when beaten two next time out winners in good style, shaping as if he’d improve for step up in trip; No real match for Texas Jack when doing so and must improve again to win.

Mount Benbullen: Made fast progress in bumpers, his most impressive performance being his 8 length win over subsequent Punchestown Champion Bumper winner Lovethehigherlaw in impressive fashion at Limerick; Going well when slipping up at Galway but none the worse for that when winning in a hack canter last time; Should go well.

Texas Jack: Made a really taking debut when quickening up well to land valuable Goffs Bumper at Punchestown Festival on debut, and taken that form to hurdles, 2-2 with the minimum of fuss; Stable won this race in 2008 and 2010 and may be big pointer that he’s sent here.

 

Tullaintain: Dual winner over fences who’s rated 120 but failed to complete twice this season and likely to be too slow.

VERDICT: A good looking renewal of this race with more than a few useful prospects running. Many will fancy Mount Benbulben heavily based on his impressive bumper win and easy hurdle win last time, but it’s hard to say that TEXAS JACK doesn’t have the same potential, having taken his unbeaten record to three with a contentiously easy win over previous maiden hurdle winner Make A Track at Clonmel last time. Both can take advantage of the 3lbs they get from Rebel Fitz. 

Japan Cup 2011

6.20 Tokyo

Japan Cup (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) Winner £2,000,663

Advice: 1 pt each/way Tosen Jordan,(12/1 Ladbrokes), Pelusa (12/1 Paddy Power, Hills, Boylesports)

Jaguar Mail: Last year’s fourth who found the drop back to 10f too short in the Tenno Sho last time out (real stayer, as shown by his Grade 1 win over 2 miles); Should be ready to run for his life (this his second run after decent comeback) but might lack the pace for a test like this.

Buena Vista: The winner by right (disqualified) of this last year, although she’s not run to the same form since; Probably not suited by dropping right down to a mile when beaten at long odds on by Anapane, and then finding trouble in Tarazuka Kinen/Tenno Shon; Should go as well as ever although some doubts now about how good she is.

Rose Kingdom: Benefitted from a controversial stewarding decision to win this last season, and first win since Group Two Kyoto Daishoten on return to the track to advertise his well-being; Tenno Sho disappointment leaves him with a  lot to find and others readily preferred.

 

Oken Bruce Lee: Saves his best for this event, having been fifth, second (by just a nose) and seventh in this three tries at the Cup; Very encouraging effort when beaten giving 8lbs to Trailblazer last time and that form makes him interesting, for all he’ll need to improve on all other efforts this season.

Trailblazer: Biggest win of carrer when taking Grade 2 Copa Republica Argentina but getting 8lbs from Oken Bruce Lee on that occasions and readily swerved here on that basis.

To The Glory: Steady improver throughout last year, finishing little more than quarter of a length behind Victoire Pisa and Buena Vista last year; Had started in same form this season but since lost his way a little; Big chance at his best following encouraging run behind Tosen Jordan latest, although still to reverse form with him and others behind him from that day.

Pelusa: Fifth in this last year following second to Buena Vista from last year, coming late on both occasions; Proven a little below par this year based on that form but ran a cracker when third in Tenno Sho, recording the fastest closing split from wide out of any horse in the race; Can run a big race with a good passage and high on any shortlist.

Victoire Pisa: Third in this last year but just not looked back since, winning Arima Kinen before being brilliantly ridden to win the Dubai World Cup; Has form that’s as good as any of these but so hard to recommend of a 246 day absence, despite his class.

Sarah Lynx: Enjoys testing ground, and used conditions to good effect when romping away with Canadian International, coming clear in straight after being given excellent ride by Cristophe Soumillion; This far tougher and won’t have the advantage that she did over some of her rivals last time.

King Top Gun: Very versatile, competing Grade 2 handicap double over 13 furlongs and a mile, receiving 11lbs from Heart Beat Song on one occasion; Shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough.

Mission Approved: Made Gio Ponti pull out all the stops when allowed to dictate a steady pace in last year’s renewal, and got away with it when gives same amount of rope on seasonal reappearance when pinching the  Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap; reversed with Gio Ponti on level terms next and then unplaced in Arlington Million; Hard to fancy.

Win Variation: Only member of Japanese classic generation here; Winner of the Aoba Sho Stakes before coming second to Triple Crown winner Orfevre on three occasions; Can’t be ruled out safely given that only that horse stood between him and 2 legs of Triple Crown; Interesting.

Danedream: Supplemented for Arc breathtaking victory in September 4 in Germany's top race, the Grosser Preis von Baden, where she beat the 2010 winner Night Magic by six lengths in very soft ground; Followed that with superb display in Arc De Triomphe, winning easily in course record time; Massive chance if literally repeating that form but been on the go since April and is short (despite it being deservedly so) for race of this nature; Best European performance was Alkaseed’s third in 2005.

Shareta: Was only having her second run when bumping into Galikova on seasonal debut, and has since improved quite a deal, gaining easy win before being third in Vermille; Grabbed second in Arc thanks to great trip and shouldn’t reverse form with Danedream.

Eishin Flash: Holds Rose Kingdom, Victoire Pisa, Pleusa, and To The Glory on last year’s Japanese Derby win and decent efforts afterwards, fast closing second on Hiruno D’Amour in 2m Grade 1 before chasing a ridiculously fast pace in Tenno Sho and ending up sixth; Could go well here with more restrained ride.

Tosen Jordan: Rapid improver this year, winning three of his four starts in 2011, including when brilliantly ridden to take the Tenno Sho, breaking the record for the 1m2f trip (a staggeringly quick time of 1:56); Should get a similarly strong pace to run at again and while others could have good claims to reversing the form, big chance if able to repeat that stretch run.

VERDICT: One of the most open renewals in a good while, although it’s not missing out on quality in any way, shape or form. A repeat of Dandedream’s superb Arc effort would see her take a major hand in this but there’s a possible worry about how long she’s been on the go for (she did start her season in April) and she’s a short price a just 9/4 to win the race, so each/way value can be found elsewhere. Star mare and rightful winner of this event last year Buena Vista is also given major respect despite the fact she’s not won since landing the last renewal, as circumstances have generally gone against her since. She’s just 5/1 (only with Hills) however, and more each/way value is offered by PELUSA, who was coming home with a wet sail in the Tenno Sho and should be able to repeat his effort given a strong pace early on here. Exactly the same reasoning makes the winner that day, TOSEN JORDAN, who’s hold up style negates the widest draw here. There are many fascinating outsiders, including Win Variation, who’s form with Orfvere makes a top price of 33/1 look very big, while Eishin Flash also deserves a mention having chased an extraordinarily strong pace in the Tenno Sho.

Hennessy Gold Cup 2011

3.10 Newbury

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £85,425

Advice: 1 pt each/way Great Endeavour (6/1 Bet365, Paddy Power*), Wymott (10/1 Paddy Power)

Neptune Collonges: One of the top jumpers of recent years, often overshadowed by Denman and Kauto Star; Showed he still has it when winning Argento Chase last season before respectable efforts in Gold Cup (not good enough) and Scottish National (too much weight) but should still give Harry Derham a good spin even if not good enough.

Planet Of Sound: Arrived as a top class staying chaser when winning Punchestown Gold Cup; Good reappearance when third in Betfair Chase before being held up by breathing problem; Very interesting on best form and one to watch.

Sarando: Made a poor start over fences when sixth at Plumpton but found his preferred style of running when a wide margin winner of 4 runner novice chase and even better when close second to now Gold Cup contender Quito De La Roque; Reappearance win deeply impressive and shouldn’t go without consideration for all that this is far tougher.

Aiteenthirtythree: Unbeaten in two starts over fences at Newbury, trashing decent opponents by 17 and 50 lengths respectively in a promising start to life over fences; RSA Chase (pulled up) came too soon for him and warmed up with an adequate second to Somserby over trip half a mile too short at Kempton; Feeling that he’s got potential to outstrip his mark by far and clearly had only this race in mind for a long time, but worry about how he’ll cope with big and high quality field.

Blazing Bailey: Looked as if he was starting to get back to his best when pulling off a handicap chase double at Cheltenham and Ffos Las but failed to go on from that and far more progressive/classier sorts in this field.

Great Endeavour: Picked up where he left off from 2 seasons ago (when he won the Bryne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival) after a below par season when bolting up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, having enjoyed a perfect trip; Some have raised questions about him in this test but looked as if he’d stay three miles when unlucky faller (given poor, overly aggressive ride) in 3 mile handicap chase at last season’s Festival, and 10lbs rise for his win last time (must be remembered that this could be last chance to get a good mark) is more than fair; Track like Newbury should see him stay three miles and of obvious interest.

Beshabar: Continued the progression he’d made over hurdles with a strong chase campaign last season, following his second in the National Hunt Chase to then winning Scottish National; This test should suit and of major interest here.

Wayward Prince: As solid a chasing campaign as you’d hope for last season, when winning three chases in impressive fashion before flying home late in the RSA Chas; Over the top at Aintree but still got plenty of mileage in his mark and one of the better contenders here.

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Not reached that form since but respectable runs since and nearly 10lbs lower than when sixth in this last year; Possible with a run behind him.

Muirhead: Top class hurdler in his time but looked to have lots to offer over fences when cantering all over rivals to win the Munster National; Disappointing when just eighth in United House Gold Cup and after that, passed over in better race.

Michel Le Bon: Created a good impression when winning two of his three novice hurdles (one by 21 lenghths) as a prelude to chasing, which started in exceptional style when cantering around Newbury unopposed; Leg trouble kept him out since then but kept in the highest regard by his trainer and not impossible that he can take a big hand after long absence; Interesting although there are still question marks over him.

 The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when winning on trials day; Shaped well over hurdles at Chepstow when fourth in Silver Trophy and should go well off the back of that, although jumping mistakes are a worry (saw him unseat at the first in Paddy Power Gold Cup).

Wymott: Grade 2 winner over hurdles last season (with a Grade 1 winner behind in Wayward Prince) who has made perfect start to fencing this year, beating useful field with ease at Bangor and then winning strong events at Exeter (next 4 home have since won) and Bangor; Pulled up in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham but injured himself there; 4lbs reprieve from handicap potentially lenient and of major interest.

Fair Along: Much loved stalwart who was second best in bid for hat trick of John Smith’s Hurdles at Wetherby and seemed to be exposed when sixth in similar event at Cheltenham last time out; Others preferred and may have to work too hard for the lead.

Balthazar King: Looked to have plenty to offer when winning handicap Chase at Cheltenham in October but disappointed twice since when fifth at Ascot and pulled up in long distance event at Cheltenham; Exposed.

Tullamore Dew: Ran a screamer to take third under topweight in the Centenary Chase (behind Divers and Quantativeeasing) at the Festival and solid run at Chepstow on reappearance over hurdles; Up 5lbs on chase mark for that and interesting upped to three miles.

Bille Magern: As game as they come, competing a 4 timer in weak novice events last year but holding his head high when pitched into better company; Won well last month at Cheltenham but held in Paddy Power and this similarly tough.

Qhilimar: Useful staying handicap chaser of late, winning twice in his last four starts and running a solid race in defeat at Carlile last time; Good but probably not good enough for such exalted company.

VERDICT: A race which betting wise revolves around two unexposed Paul Nicholls chasers in Aiteenthritythree and Michael Le Bon. Aiteenthirtythree’s sure to be popular having had only this race in mind for a year and then a nice prep run around Kempton, but there’s still a worry about his form of his two wins and how well he’ll cope with being taken on for the lead, the same circumstances which saw his poor run in the RSA Chase at the Festival. He could still be well ahead of his mark but he’ll need to be and it remains to be seen how he copes with this test. Michel Le Bon is seen by some as good enough to go to the Gold Cup and it would be no surprise to see him run a massive race here on only his second chase start but the absence and lack of experience leaves two question marks as well, and he’s seen as more of a watching brief despite his obvious talent and reputation. The Paddy Power Gold Cup winner GREAT ENDAVOUR has stamina questions to answer for some but he wasn’t finished when falling in at the Cheltenham Festival (having been given a very poor ride) over 3 miles and this track, combined with waiting tactics, should see him go very nicely in a bid to evoke memories of Celestial Gold, who won both races – being the last horse to do attempt the double – in 2004. Of the large brigade of second season chasers, the one who makes most appeal is WYMOTT, clearly amiss at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen, an effort which has seen him get a lenient drop in the handicap. He’s very unexposed over fences as one would want for this race, and good ground would not be the end of the world for his challenge despite connections concerns. Beshabar and Wayward Prince, for obvious reasons, made the most appeal of the others and the best big price contender would appear to be Tullamore Dew. 




*Paddy Power and Bet365 are going 1/4 the odds 5 places, which is why the shorter price is advised on Great Endeavour 

Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle 2011

2.35 Newbury

Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £17,085

Advice: 3 pts Sparky May w/o Big Bucks (15/8 Hills), 1 pt Sparky May to beat Pettifour (8/11 Ladbrokes)

Big Buck’s: Unbeaten on all 11 starts since switching back to hurdles, having won this race twice and taken just about every single major staying hurdle inbetween; Made easy work of beating inferior rivals in the Long Walk Hurdle but absolutely superb when beating Grands Crus at Cheltenham and Liverpool, winning well both times; Shouldn’t be beaten.

Sparky May: Took off over hurdles last season, winning at this meeting by 27 lengths before impressive Grade 2 win at Ascot; Lost no caste in defeat (very keen both times) against Quevega and when beaten in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle as favourite at Aintree, and should be second best here.

 

Cerium: Beaten in many top class races and should be the same again.

Duc De Regniere: Classy hurdler (palced behind Big Bucks on a few occasions, including last season in this race before running well below par in Long Walk Hurdle; Since moved to new yard but no reason why he can’t run a respectable race.

Five Dream: Ran his best race for some time when second to stablemate at Exeter on soft ground last time out, but that against far ineferior rivals than this. 

Pettifour: Formerly useful hurdler (once rated 155, Grade 1 winner and then second in Grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown) who made excellent return from year off with injury to when second, beaten just a head, in Cheltenham handicap hurdle; Interesting if coming back to his best.

VERDICT: Sparky May looks like the only horse in the field with the talent to bustle up Big Bucks but even then he’ll need to be some way below par for the race to be close. Thankfully, there’s a market in betting without the favourite, which makes her a strong selection to beat Pettifour and Duc De Reginere. 

Fighting Fifth Hurdle 2011

2.20 Newcastle

StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £58,521

Advice: 1 pt win Binocular (11/10 Hills)

Binocular: 2010 Champion Hurdle winner who never reached peak when it mattered last year after impressive Christmas Hurdle win; Would win this impressively at best and may not need to run to peak to do so (beaten by two better hurdlers in this last year); The one to beat.

Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who lost confidence after chasing didn’t work out for him; Appeared to have lost a step over hurdles despite strong showing in pair of Grade 2 hurdles last year and should also have come on for his fortunate win in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton; Can go a good gallop and hard to pass but others preffered.

Kosta Brava: Hard to see him getting within a furlong of the front three.

Overturn: Game front runner who made a real name for himself in graded company over hurdles last season, coming second in Christmas Hurdle after winning Galway Hurdle; Handicap mark caught upto him on flat but impressive when winning limited handicap hurdle with plenty to spare from General Miller and deserved winner of Ascot Hurdle (left infront after main rival fell at last); Big chance here.

Stormy Weather: Surely won’t be up to this class.

VERDICT: For the last two years BINOCULAR has been well below par when running in this, and with the consistent and solid Overturn and Celestial Halo on their side, the layers must fancy their chances. However Binocular still has at least 4lbs in hand of Overturn based on his Christmas Hurdle form, while Celestial Halo isn’t as tempting as he would have been two years ago in this. The intial value – he was once as big as 7/4 – has gone from Nicky Henderson’s charge, but he’s still the most persuasive call.