Barcelona and Atleico Madrid haven’t been as closely matched
for many years and tonight they kick off what could be one of the closest of
the four Champions League quarter finals this evening.
Barcelona, semi finalists in the last seven seasons and winners
three times in that period, are yet again towards the head off affairs at home,
in the Copa Del Rey final, and are considered to be one of the favourites for
European glory. There has been little in the way of a post Guardiola slump,
with a wide margin league win last year going some way to covering for the spectacular
collapse that they suffered against Bayern Munich last season when the Bavarian side showed their class on their way to their treble.
Things have changed drastically for Barcelona with Tata
Martino now providing real management and the emotional disruption coming from the
serious illnesses that Tito Villanova, Guardiola’s number 2, suffered last
season and they come here emboldened by a recent spike in form following their
roughest patch of the season. They came into their second clasico of the season
against Real Madrid having failed to win their last 5 away games but edged one
of the games of the season 4-3 after an end-to-end thriller to bring themselves
back into the title race and they warmed up for this weekend in exemplary style
with a hard fought 1-0 win against Espanyol to keep the pressure on tonight’s
rivals at Atletico.
Atleico’s incredibly intense gameplan combined with a small
squad has seen their league form be negatively affected in the second half of
the season, especially after the turn of the year, and heavy defeats against
Almeria and Osasuna seemed to suggest a hitting of the physical wall but since
a resurgent 2-2 draw with Madrid has since seen them win 5 games on the bounce
and their 2-1 win at Altieoc Bilbao was one of their performance of the season,
becoming only the second side to win at San Mames, a feat that has surpassed
even Barcelona and Real Madrid this year.
Atleico also have a fast improving
record against Barcelona as well. Their last three meetings in the league have
seen them lose, 3-0, 5-0 and 4-1, but in the Supercopa Diego Simeone’s side
drew at the Calerdon before holding tonight’s hosts to a 0-0 and losing only on
supergoals, another record to add to an impressive knockout record that
includes a Copa Del Rey title from last year and 2 Europa League titles in
recent years; Put simply Madrid are very experienced and very good at two
legged football.
Barcelona’s recent improvement in
form and overall class makes them deserving favourites for tonight’s game and a
semi final place but our initial faith in Madrid remains undimmed and they are
not beyond getting a result tonight to take back to Madrid, and if they are in
the game going into the second leg Barcelona will be going to a venue where
theyhave twice tried and failed to win in two attempts this season. The 4/7 for
the home side and what some will perceive as fairly generous odds on a one goal
handicap will tempt plenty for the home side but we’ll sit this one out and
hope Atletico can take a result back to Madrid.
Advice
No bet
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