The Grand National 2014

4.15 Aintree

Crabbie's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (7YO plus)

Winner £561,300

Distance: 4m3f Runners: 40

Advice: 1 pt each/way Long Run (14/1 BetVictor, 16/1 Hills, Sportingbet), Pineau De Re (28/1 BetVictor, 25’s general), Prince Du Beauchene (20/1 Bet Victor), 1 pt each/way Teaforthree (10/1 BetVictor)

Tidal Bay: Resurgent veteran; Unseated in this in 2011 when on a comeback trail but has since improved form vastly, second in Hennessy, winner of Lexus Chase, winner of Graded hurdle and then an extremely close third in Welsh National off topweight before second in Irish Hennessey; If showing up in same form nothing says he can’t go close here but worry is if come from behind tactics will prove as useful on quicker ground around a course that now favours the front runner; If so, few likely to close better.

Long Run: Another class act, a winner of two King George Chases and a Gold Cup in last two seasons; Clear that he’s not the same horse that won those races but clearly in need of an extreme test of stamina now and no shame in his defeats in Grade 1 chases this season, ahead of Long Run in Betfair Chase when three of best stayers around drew clear; Warmup run was a solid effort, front running likely to suit around this course and fencing nothing like as shaky as the horse of old here while rider knows course inside out; Set for a big run.

Hunt Ball: Rose to prominence for Antony Knott when landing novices handicap at Cheltenham and then third in the Bowl 2 years ago; Ownership dispute saw him try US racing which didn’t work out but since coming back for Henderson yard, ran two fine races over 2m5f in Grade 1’s; Stamina the worry for a horse who faded badly in Bowl two seasons back over three miles.

Triolo D’Alene: Imagine this race was in mind as soon as he won the Topham last year and has since made into a very progressive horse, winner of Hennessy in November in clear cut style from Rocky Creek, who is here again; Gamble in Gold Cup went astray but that only a tuneup and one of the better chances here.

Rocky Creek: Disappointing here as novice but had jumped and stayed well beforehand in novice season and came back with second in Hennessey (best horse at weights) in Hennessy in November; Faded late when favourite for Gold Cup trial but that form well underlined with Giant Bolster’s third in Gold Cup (he gave 5lbs to him) and interesting here even with little experience.

Quito De La Roque: Grade 2 novice chase winner here in 2011 but not in the same form since stepping up to all age company and nothing on show apart from Punchestown Grand National Trial;

Colbert Station: Went off rather short for this last year and was still in it when unseating at the chair but hasn’t made much hay since barring third in Troytown chase; Possible that on his best form he could have made impact last year but jumping has to be a huge concern here and best to look elsewhere.

Walkon: Good second in the Topham behind Triolo D’Alene but not shown much at all in two runs since and then has the major stamina over going this far, having looked ill at ease going 3 miles in the past.

Balthazar King: Cross country specialist who went too fast in this last year and paid the price in home straight but has won all four of his starts over the banks this year, super tough to defy Any Currency giving over a stone at Cheltenham with Big Shu in third; Has all the attributes for this race and if he gets home, hard to keep out of the shakeup; Rain must stay away for his chances but contender.

Wayward Prince: Has two wins here and retains plenty of talent based on his second giving 4lbs to Harry Topper in Charlie Hall at Wetherby but couldn’t raise a gallop when asked in SkyBet Chase latest; Off 150, interesting at very best but impossible to sure that he can give that performance.

Mr Moonshine: Represents the connections of Aurors Encore who won this last year and if anything, a far more realistic type for it this time round, having rallied for third in the Becher Chase here in December and then won at Musselburgh and Warwick in fine style before wamrup run at Kelso over 3 miles latest; Didn’t put a foot wrong there, hasn’t put a foot wrong all season, and no reason why big run can’t be forecoming.

Teaforthree: Jumped splendidly all the way, hit the front two out, and faded late to be third in this last year when very well fancied, having been touched off in Welsh National (felt effects of that race next time out in February of last year); Return in Welsh National a good tuneup and then ran screamer in good Ascot handicap before Gold Cup tuneup run to hopefully get him spot on for this; 2lbs lower, targeted at this, and no reason that he can’t go very close today.

Across The Bay: Came into this last year off Grade 2 hurdles win, a 40/1 shot, and Showed up well for a long way before fading to finish fourteenth; Possibly, like Baltazar King, that more restrained ride could pay benefits this time; However strange failure to get going in latest race at Haydock was worrying given his win last time and stamina doubt possibly still persist.

Double Seven: Has been on a roll since June last year, landing 5 races at trips ranging from 2m4f upwards; Prefers to have a good surface underfoot so latest effort can be forgiven to a point (his first since October last year) and feeling that he’s been plotted for this today with AP having picked him to ride; Possible jumping issues but otherwise on the shortlist.

Battle Group: Carrer bests when winning 3 handicaps in a row, including over hurdles and fences at this meeting last year, and then following up at Haydock, but old attitude problems have resurfaced this winter, and 105 day absence disconcerting here; Others make more appeal this time.

Buckers Bridge: Quickly looked as if he could be a useful chaser last season when winning Grade 1 but since been exposed and doesn’t look well treated off a mark of 147 given how he faded so badly latest when behind On His Own in Bobbjyjo Chase latest and hard to believe he’ll stay.

Lion Na Bernai: Won Irish National in 2012 following 50/1 shock in Grade 2 novice chaser; Hasn’t shown much since apart from winning chaser over impressively short distance at Fairyhouse before behind even Buckers Bridge in Bobbjyjo.

Prince Du Beauchene: Has been very strongly fancied for this race for the past two years, running sterling trial in Bobbyjo Chase, but not made it thanks to injury; Possible to come to clusion that his best chance might be past him after quiet winter (midfield, well beaten in Hennessy) but not been in a race to suit since last year’s Bobbyjo and possible this test the most suitable he’s had; Warmed up in good style last time over 2m4f and still interesting.

Monbeg Dude: Won Welsh National last winter, edgeding out Teaforthree after creeping ride from Paul Carberry; In good form this season, fourth to Alvardo before winning competitive Cheltenham handicap in November although he was disappointing last time at Doncaster; No distance too far for him and serious form case to be made for him, although whether he can get into proceedings remains to be seen and jumping errors also undermine confidence. 

Big Shu: Excellent cross country performance, a clear winner of Cheltenham’s feature last year before winning at Punchestown and then returning to come close third at the Festival this year behind Balthazar King, travelling into race on the bridle before flattening out; No reason why he can’t go very well although slight worry that he’s got to keep in touch with the frontrunners.

Burton Port: Won the Grade 2 novice in 2010 and second in Betfred Bowl two years ago; Tendon injury cost him chance at this last year when he may have been in better form but mark dropped rapidly since as result of trouble; Better in cheekpieces latest at Newbury; Stayer but faded badly off the lead latest.

Our Father Only eight but feels like a long time since he trashed Sire Collonges at Cheltenham and been massive disappointment since, 11/2 favourite at Newbury in Hennessy but limp fifth and not much better the last twice; Feeling that he needs really soft ground to be seen at his best.

Mountainous: Didn’t go so well after winning Welsh National latest but possible he was feeling effects of being all out to hold Hawkes Point and then Tidal Bay at Chepstow; No reason that he can’t make a bold show here with that under his belt although his best form does seem to come on deep ground; Respected.

The Rainbow Hunter: Unseated early last year when 50/1 but showed what he can do when landing Skybet Chase at Doncaster in style of a horse that had a lot more to give latest when breathing operation may have worked the oracle (tongue tie left off);

Vintage Star: Steadily been making up into a much better chaser with experience, second to Hey Big Spender in Rehearsal Chase and then a staying on sixth at Chepstow in Welsh National; back in better form than others when second at Haydock but heavy fall at Cheltenham latest offputting; Worse options still though and high rank on the outsiders.

Chance Du Roy: Only ninth in Topham but proved these fences were no problem when landing Becher Chase when always in the front rank, travelling well and finding hand over first to repel Baby Run and others; Nowhere next time out but fourth at Ascot latest was a decent enough effort.

Hawkes Point: Always shaped as a long distance staying chaser and after one warmup run, defied by just a head from Mountainous in Welsh National last year; Have to assume that race left it’s mark to forgive his run afterwards but if back to form, nothing to prevent him from going extremely well here.

Kruzhlinin: In fine form before Christmas, making may in Scotland when winning twice at Kelso over 3m, defying 8lbs rise to follow up but well behind in Doncaster’s Skybet Chase and well beaten back at Kelso latest; New mark might be getting the best of him.

Pineau De Re: Ulster National winner of 2013; Fell when midway through the race in Becher Chase, and followed up with solid run at Carlisle and deeply impressive winner at Exeter in Veterans Handicap despite fluffing at the last and perfect tuneup when flying home in Pertemps final at Cheltenham; All looks set for him to go very close.

Golan Way: Prolific winner who took n uncompetitive hunter chase at Warwick for his new stable last month on just his second run back following a lengthy layoff; That nothing compared to this test and had lost his way beforehand; Needs to retain all old ability.

Twirling Magnet: Had been on a progressive trail until November when he won 3m novice at Cheltenham, but always blundering the next twice after that and first run beyond 3m1f today is a huge issue and looks to have hit the wall in handicapping terms. 

Vesper Bell: Looked a potential contender for this when a close second to Gooneyella at Punchstown but fell here in December, unseated in Warwick’s Classic Chase, and very disappointing in Thyestes at Gowran which has taken the shine off him.

The Package: Talented handicapper who bounced back from poor couple of runs when third in Cheltenham handicap after a year off; Has the class to go close in this for sure but seems best after a break now and wasn’t enjoying things when unseating here in 2010; Interesting but doubts on more than one count.

Raz De Maree: Dismal this year but find 2012, notable when following up wide margin Munster National win with Cork Equivalent; Nothing of  the same sort in form since although better latest; Stamina might not be an issue but worry about if this the ground for him.

Rose of the Moon: Very promising stayer last winner when landing pair of chases at Northern tracks in fine style but hadn’t been in same form since before landing Wetherby chase latest; Stamina might not be an issue but only midfield in Becher and pulled up in National Hunt Chase; Vulnerable off current mark.

Shakalakaboomboom: Came into this race in fine form, was joint favourite, and travelled extremely well before emptying in 2012 renewal of this; only the three runs since, well beaten in Festival handicap; 9lbs lower today than 2 years ago but looks a sure non stayer.

Alvarado: If everything falls right for him as it did when he won over 3m3f at Cheltenham in November, then not hard to think that he’s better than 139 there and way he dismissed Knockara Beau that day was promising for test like this; Shocker on New Year’s Day trying to follow up but better ground sure to help and more of an issue is how hold up tactics work for him.

Last Time D’Albain: Third in the Paddypower.com Chase behind Colbert Station, then in Topham behind Tirolo D’Alene; Nothing shown since but only 2lbs higher today; The worry is that he’s never shown anything close to a liking for the trip.

One in a Milan: Fourth in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December, but not in the same form twice since around same track; Hard to envisage him reversing form with the others from that day an would want significant amount of rain as well; Others preferred.

Swing Bill: Fine record over these fences, but stamina gave out in this race last year and also in 2012; Fifth in Becher Chase gives him a lot of record to make up and others make far more appeal today although he can get round.

VERDICT: The new fences and alternations, based on the Foxhunters and Topham Chases, have worked in making this as safe a test as possible and the main hope is for 40 sets of safe jockeys and horses at the end. Huge credit should go to BetVictor for going 6 places, while most bookmakers are 5 each/way spots across the board. This new test has bought a better class of horse steadily into the race and while some that have taken the carrot haven’t appreciated the test LONG RUN has been crying out for a stamina test such as this for a long time and in a race where it is positive to keep front rank, he looks to have a fine chance with a mark of 160 well within his reach, his rider a natural around these fences, and his jumping not the worry of old. Our preferred option of those at a price is PINEAU DE RE, who could have won the Pertemps final with a clearer run at Cheltenham, building on his impressive win at Exeter the time before. The Ulster National winner of last year fell in the Becher but was jumping well and if putting ina clear round, can make a bold bid late. There are any amount who made big appeal but at the end of the day it’s hard to get away, obvious as it might be, from TEAFORTHREE, who has everything set for a magnificent bid. Frontrunners seem to hold sway nowdaays, which is a question over Monbeg Dude, whose umping is a worry, and Tidal Bay, who didn’t enjoy this when unseating 2 years ago despite not being in the form he is now. And least but not least, the final vote goes to PRINCE DU BEAUCHENE, who showed last time out that he might still have most of the talent that saw him as favourite for two years before being injured both times. Mr Moonshine, Alvardo and Vintage Star were three of the most appealing outsiders.

1.     Long Run

2.     Pineau De Re

3.     Teaforthree

4.     Prince Du Beauchene

5.     Vintage Star