Champions League Semi Final - Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

Is there any situation in which Real Madrid should be a 7/2 shot to win a match regardless of opposition, location, or situation? For many that would depend upon the situation involved and a trip to the Allianz Arenas is as hard as it gets, but there still seems to be no reason for the price about Carlo Ancelotti’s men.

Scorers of the only goal in last week’s semi final legs, Madrid come here in a position any team would have taken but with reasonable cause to be frustrated that their advantage is not significantly greater coming into tonight. After Karim Benzema’s early opener, both Cristiano Ronaldo especially and Angel Di Maria found themselves with very presentable opportunities before the first half was over and Madrid were a threat throughought the second half as well whenever getting forward.

There is good statistical reason to think that things may change on German turf, however. Bayern have won 20 of their last 24 home games in the Champions League, with three of the failures to win being games against Arsenal and Manchester City that did not need winning for them to progress. While they face no opposition of note, the sheer dominance of their Bundsliga performance and their smooth progress to the DFB Pokal final are a reminder of the class they possess in light of the derision heaped upon Guardiola’s style of football.

There is also the significant problem of Real Madrid’s away struggled. Although they are a much smaller problem then they have been in the past, 9 of their 11 failures to win this season have come away from the Bernabeu and the latest failure, a 2-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund in a quarter final that should have gone to extra time at least, is the biggest worry for Los Blancos – a continuation of a wretched German record that saw them exit the competition again at this stage last year as they lost 4-1 to Borussia Dortmund in their away semi final leg. However it should also be remembered that defeat – albeit by the slender margin of one goal - would not be terminal, with an away goal for Madrid meaning Bayern must score three to progress.  Bayern have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 16 games and Madrid have scored in 34 of their last 35 Champions League games. 

 

 Such a feat is not beyond the holders but they were very much reliant upon Manchester United’s collapse after holding the lead for less than minute in the quarter finals and until then they had struggled to break down David Moyes’s side who were using the tactics that they had employed to such success the week before.

Madrid are 8/13 to reach the final for the first time since 2002 and that seems fair enough given that the one goal means Bayern must score three. The only time Madrid have lost by more than one was in Dortmund, removing any feeling of certainty in backing them, but the 13/2 for them to win with both teams scoring is far too large to ignore and so is the opposite for Bayern, who are more than capable of reaching the final with home advantage.

Advice

1 pt Bayern to win with both teams scoring (11/5 Betway)

1 pt Real Madrid to win with both teams scoring (13/2 general)  

1 pt Real Madrid (7/2 general)