The Grand National is often the hardest race of the season
to predict but this year’s Topham (3.40) is at least as competitive with any amount
that could be given a serious chance. Our main hope is Your Busy, who hasn’t
shown anything since finishing second to Rebel Rebellion in the Grand Sefton
but comes here only 5lbs higher in the weights today and if in the same form –
and his latest effort at Leopardstown was a little more like it – he has a
cracking chance on the weights. Also of serious interest using that formline is
You Must Know Me, who is only 2lbs higher albeit having run very badly when
last seen. If both turn at their best then they are well entitled to be in the
shakeup.
Two of the best marks may have been given to Paul Nicholls
horses in Cedre Bleu and Kauto Stone, who is thrown in on a mark of 145 here.
In a first time tongue tie, the latter makes more appeal with Cedre Bleu
sometimes not putting everything he can into the finish and is well worth
chancing at 33’s with Carberry, if any, the man to pull of a come from behind
ride around this course.
In a race where any number can be given winning chances,
Double Ross and Ma Filleule are likely to take some pegging back from the front
but this is very much a course form shoot from our view with nothing
approaching confidence.
In the Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle, Caid Du
Berlais is capable of defying topweight. An excellent third in the Conditional
Jockeys handicap at Cheltenham, if able to back up his close effort he comes
here just 2lbs here with that form collectively some of the strongest available
in the race today. Attaglance, returned to hurdles after an unlucky Cheltenham
chase second, and Alavaian, who should enjoy this step up in trip, are both
solid contenders in a race where a whole host can be given a chance, but if
Nicholls’ runner backs up today he could take some stopping.
Advice
1 pt each/way Your Busy, Topham Chase (14/1 general)
1 pt each/way You Must Know Me (20/1 general)
1 pt each/way Caid Du Berlais, 4.50 Aintree (8/1 general)
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