Some things in sport change and some things in sport stay
the same, and the tradition of Augusta National hosting the masters has given
it it’s own special place in the yearly calendar. Early summer or many is
heralded by the changing of the clocks and first summer days but the Masters
brings with it the feel of the sporting and traditional summer.
The course may be unique but that’s not the only thing that
makes the first major of the year so different from others. Golf events are
massively populated, with the US Open, The Open, and UPSPGA all contested by
156 players each year on a changing course, but only 97 go for the Masters and
even for a tournament which is at times - as unpredictable – as the Masters, a
certain amount of those can be crossed out before the first tee off time. No
debutant has won since 1979, which gives 24 first timers a mountain to climb,
and the 9 veterans going even themselves would admit they are there purely for
ceremonial reasons. With fair weather also meaning that tee times won’t ruin
your chances, it’s arguable that this is also the best betting and watching
major of the whole season.
This is a major that, in terms of betting trends, is
extremely flexible. Between them 7 of the last 16 majors have been won by Tiger
Woods and Phil Mickleson, while three of the last four winners have started at
triple figure prices at the first tee. In short, the best approach is to have a
see-saw and liberal approach with prices and contenders.
Cutting straight to the chase, Mickleson, a three-time
winner of the green jacket, is once again at the head of our shortlist. Around
for what feels like an age even in this game, his consistency has been
remarkable and he showed not only his class but his superb mental resilience
when bouncing back from a US Open second (his sixth) to take the Open over the
Murifield links, becoming the first player to land the Scottish equivalent and
take the main event a week before.
This year he hasn’t been at his peak, with a poor season
blighted by injury – namely an oblique muscle pull that forced him to pull out
of the Texas Open, although he also tweaked his back when he made his debut in
Abu Dhabi – that has produced only two top tens. It all looks like reasons you
would steer a mile clear of Lefty, but after coming in cold, posted his best
effort with a 12th in the Houston Open, an extremely encouraging
effort when his troubles have been considered, putting ‘the major parts of his
game together’ for the first time his season. The long, tough, modern Augusta
suits few players better than Mickleson and with that recent appearance under
his belt, there must be a chance of him reaching his peak form this season at
the right time both mentally - despite claims of him being nervous at his
recent form - and physically in time as well for the four days. There’s a
slight chance being taken on his form and condition but despite him being third
favourite there’s a feeling he has snuck under the radar going into this event
and he would not be the first winner to have broken his duck in the Masters for
the season; Infact Of the last six champions, only Charl Schwartzel had won on
a main tour already that year and that was in a low-grade SA event for which
he’d gone off a short priced favourite.
With players like last year’s winner Adam Scott in
appearance however, it’s understandable that Lefty doesn’t go off favourite.
After Greg Norman’s famous heartbreak many Australians didn’t feel they would
ever get a green jacket, but Scott’s prodigious talent had already taken him
agonisingly close to this title in 2012 before Schawartzel made four birdies in a
row, and an Open when the same thing had happened to him with victory in
touching distance, but he held his nerve to land the title in a playoff.
A player who peaks for majors - he has a win, two seconds, a third, a fifth,
a seventh and an eighth in the last 12 majors – he is also building the kind of
record legends have around this course with finishes of second, eighth and
first in the last three tournaments. His third at Bay Hill was a disappointing
result given his opening 62 but it confirmed him in the same touch that he
would want to take to Augusta and he can go close to retaining his title and
defying the wretched stats of back to back attempts since Tiger Woods in 2002.
It would be rude and foolish in the extreme not to address
the obvious and significant chances of this year’s favourite, Rory McIlroy, who
arguably should be coming here as the winner of the 2011 edition when he took a
four shot lead and some of the best golf played here into the last shot before
his epic collapse. However that talent has been converted into two major wins
and a Ryder Cup since, and his season has not had the luck that his play has
deserved so far. While we prefer the chances of Scott and Mickleson here,
nobody could be put off his chances.
McIlroy’s major temperament is not an attribute that many
would apply to Sergio Garcia but in the last 3 seasons especially the
prodigious Spanish talent is now beginning to show the kind of form that
matches his ability in a turn to his prominent showings in the 2000’s and a
bold showing to build on last year’s eighth is entirely possible with the
Spaniard in the right frame of mind to make a challenge. His ball striking and
putting – the two factors that are the difference between winning and losing
this tournament – have rarely been in better form as underlined by the fact he
hasn’t missed a single top-20, won the Qatar Masters and enjoyed the perfect
Masters warm-up by finishing third at Redstone last week. His mental state of
mind at the beginning of the tournament couldn’t possibly be healthier and few
players have games better suited towards the course, or in better shape; He currently
leads the PGA Tour in scrambling and bogey avoidance, along with putts form 5
to 15 feet.
Going back to the idea of players reached a rapid peak after
a slow season, there’s reason to think that Brandt Snedeker has come in under
the radar here. This season has been mostly a write off for him but his top 10
at Bay Hill, a route many use to find their groove towards Augusta, suggests
that all obvious problems are behind him and his course and major record is
persuasive. He has seven top 20’s,
including an Open third, in his last 11 majors, and he’s gone out in the final
group on Sunday in his last 5 tries at Augusta National, lading to a record of
4 top 20’s in his last 5 Masters, including a third and sixth. The worry is
that he folded with rounds of 77 and 76 for those two finishes but six Tour
wins and a FedEx Cup trophy is not the record of a bottler and he has a big
round in him this week.
The competition for our last outright place in the staking
plan is fierce, but the price of Luke Donald gives him a final spot. Swing
changes, in order to combat an over-reliance on his short game – much like Seve
– seem to have worked to a large degree based on his form this season, where
he’s built up a run of four straight top 25s, which include a fourth at Tamps
Bay and an eighth in the Honda Classic. A lack of power around this gaping
course might be a worry but it hasn’t prevented him from a third, a fourth and
a 10th in The Masters, more than enough to convince us he handles the course.
He is also worth backing for top European at 14’s.
Of those on the shortlist that didn’t make it, Dustin
Johnson’s massively hit and miss record including his collapse when leading for
us last year just put us off him, and it was even harder to leave out the in
form – forget last week’s withdrawal – 2012 winner Bubba Watson. Matt Kuchar
was high on our list but two collapses in recent weeks with victory at his
mercy was unnerving at a fairly short price, and it was hard to leave out Jason
Day, although no action for six weeks is so hard to look over and Henrik
Stenson, who was playing the best gold on the planet for a large part of last
year, made a more tempting choice although his horror year has few valid
excuses so far. Gary Woodland and Rickie Fower are not bad 50+ shots, having
improved their games for this course immensurable, and remembering Nick Watney’s
rounds last year makes 125 look awfully large, and Thobjorn Olsen’s round last
year – as noted by Steve Palmer. For me, Charl Schwartzel was best of the South
Africans.
Advice
1 pt each/way Adam Scott (12/1 general)
1 pt each/way Phil Mickleson (14/1 general)
1 pt each/way Sergio Garcia (20/1 Stan James, general)
1 pt each/way Brandt Snedeker (35/1 Paddy Power, general)
1 pt each/way Luke Donald, (55/1 Paddy Power)
Advice – Top American
1 pt each/way Brandt Snedeker (18/1 Betfair)
Advice – Top European
1 pt each/way Luke Donald (14/1 general)
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