Today is the final day of the flat season in the UK (and
Ireland officially) but with Punchestown just around the corner national hunt
fans get one final big bite at the cherry before we go full scale for the flat.
From a betting point of view, the best bet of today may well
be in the first race, where Baradari has a fine chance of taking a rally well
contested juvenile handicap hurdle (2.05), Featuring many who went into the
Fred Winter at Cheltenham, including half unlucky fourth Keltus, who lines up
as favourite here and a worthy one at that, but Baradari was just 2 lengths
behind him that day and found himself a long way behind proceedings before
flashing home for fifth that day. If he’d taken closer order that day he would
have been an interesting player at the finish, and if over a fall at Aintree,
could be more at home on this ground – his win and place has come on ground
worse than good – with the significant rain at Sandown making hard work of the
course, and all seems set for a big run. It is surprising to see Raven’s
Towner, one place behind Baradari at the Festival and a winner on soft ground,
at 11/1 given his impressive win at Ascot where a 6lbs higher mark didn’t look
as if it was going to present too much of a problem today, and Brian Ellison’s
booking of Barry Geraghty for UK debutant Vodka Wells makes for an eyecatching
contender.
Geraghty himself, fresh from a first Irish National win, has a good chance in the Bet365 Chase (2.40), where Hunt Ball makes a lot of appeal
getting 6lbs from Menorah and Rolling Aces, and a chance is taken on the Grand
National having not bottomed him given the way his stamina gave out coming into
the home straight. With Sire De Grugy a certainty – if he hasn’t been
completely bottomed by a rather long season – in the Celebration Chase – and
significant questions surrounding nearly all of the main Bet365 Gold Cup
contenders, our next bet comes on the level courtesy of Arab Spring (7.35
Doncaster) an extremely promising colt who has shown a great deal in just two
starts.
Second on his Newmarket debut last may in a race that has
seen 9 wins from seven different horses since, he made short work of a less
competitive affair at Kempton on the AW on his return. With improvement
hopefully coming, he looks to be well upto justifying a short price with a mark
of 85 very fair – his conqueror Elkaayed ran to a mark of 83 when winning here
next time out – assuming that he handles the soft ground.
Advice
1 pt each/way Baradari, 2.05 Sandown (8/1 general)
1 pt win Hunt Ball, 2.40 Sandown (11/4 general)
2 pts win Arab Spring, 7.35 (7/5 Bet Bright, 5/4 general)
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