Last week’s Grand National was noted as one of the strongest
renewals from a quality point of view for a long time and the same can be said
of today’s Scottish equivalent, with any number of horses that can be given a
competitive chance, so I’m going to cut straight to the chase and give you two
novices that I think hold big chances today.
The first is Green Flag, who has been progressive from start
to finish this season, improving beyond recognition from winning by a neck at
Kelso on his novice debut, taking novice handicap here and at Newcastle in fine
style before a second to Annacotty (the form of which has been readily boosted)
in the Feltham at Kempton. While he was denied a chance (clipping heels) to
land the Towton novices’ at Wetherby his Cheltenham Festival run was a new
carer best, where the good pace looked to have been his undoing as he found
himself well beaten before three out, only to find a second gear once faced
with the hill, flying for fourth in what has turned out to be – at least on recent
evidence – one of the strongest handicaps run of the season. Winner Holywell is
now battling for favouritism in the Gold Cup market following a devastating
Aintree win in the Mildmay, Ma Filleule ran away with a competitive renewal of
the Topham Chase at Aintree, an even The Package ran well for a very long way
in the Grand National until stamina gave way, giving the form a rock solid
look. For a form comparison, he carried 2lbs less than Holywell and ended up
just 11 and ½ lengths behind, form that makes a mark of 142 look outstanding.
There has been no sign that the extra mile shouldn’t be right up his street and
he has a fine chance of keeping the prize in Scotland this year.
There is a high quality novice turnout this year, and Mendip
Express was strongly fancied to take high rank amongst this year’s novices when
landing a 3m2f handicap chase in style at Cheltenham by 5 lengths. The form of
that hasn’t worked out as one would have liked, but there was no denying that
he looked like he had more to give and third placed Ballypatrick’s third in the
Eider chase and fourth behind favourite Roaldo De Farges gives some quality
towards the form. He was sent off 11/10 to beat Sam Winner and Smad Place, but
bled at Newbury, meaning that he’s not been seen since, but he still retrains a
huge amount of raw promise and it is worth taking a chance on the tri and
ground or him today with his stamina not up for question, he makes considerable
appeal.
It was hard to pick him over Sam Winner, second to Smad
Place at Newbury in the same race that Mendip Express giving 3lbs after his
impressive Cheltenham win, especially given that one’s RSA fifth when the
National Hunt Chase looked a more than acceptable option, but stepping up in
trip today to a marathon distance looks long overdue and he too can go well
with Tidal Bay’s presence perfect for his weight. Before Paul Nicholls
confirmed Tidal Bay I managed to get 24 about him to win and 7.6 to place,
although a failure to read the small print of Betfair markets means that I’ve
got to let it run today. To be fair, with his class, that is no bad thing, and
he has proven being weights to be no issue with his Bet365 Gold Cup romp over
today’s favourite Roalco De Farges and his Welsh National second as examples,
although some more rain would have been nice for a horse of his hold up style,
although I am of the belief that it is easier to make ground up from behind in
this race than around Aintree.
For those who want meatier prices, the veteran Roberto
Goldback is well handicapped based on a third in the Kim Muir at the Festival
where he took forever to come up the hill, with his fourth in November’s United
House Gold Cup off 151 now looking very good. Forgive Merry King his latest run
were he broke a blood vessel and he also begins to become very interesting in a
race that is wide open, while Trustan Times is following in the footsteps of
Aintree National winner Pineau De Re, coming here well in following a run in
the Petemps final.
Advice
1 pt each/way Green Flag, 3.50 Ayr (12/1 Bet365, 10/1
general)
1 pt each/way Mendip Express, 3.50 Ayr (14/1 general)
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