Champions League Semi Finals - Chelsea v Atletico Madrid

It has become a guarantee of late that whatever the result for Chelsea in their semi final tonight, Jose Mournhio will be at the centre of proceedings and his Chelsea side can reach yet another European final by edging out Atletico Madrid at Stamford Bridge tonight.

Much has been said of Chelsea’s conservative gameplan – “parking the bus” as everybody now calls it – but on the biggest stages it has worked the oracle for a Chelsea this season. Against the other members of the top four as it stands currently, they have 16 points from their 6 games – with home wins against each of those sides – and while the first leg last week was soporific his preference for coming here with a clean sheet is totally understandable.

Until their defeat to Sunderland Jose had not lost at home in the league in 76 games and their record in Europe at the Bridge is almost as impressive; Chelsea have never lost a semi-final leg in any European competition at home and have won their last five Champions League knockout matches at Stamford Bridge, keeping a clean sheet in the last three of these. A 3-1 defeat at PSG, much like the one they suffered against Napoli two years ago before turning around the advantage, came at the hands of criminal defending by their lofty standards and given the quality of Atletico there was good reason to have the game decided upon home turf where Chelsea are undoubtedly strongest.

It’s with good reason given that Atletico are a side that boast exactly the same qualities as Chelsea. The Rojiblancos have actually conceded less goals than Chelsea in the league and Champions League while they also have three more clean sheets in La Liga than their hosts tonight. Being at home is not going to deliver Chelsea automatic victory, either; Madrid have taken 4 points in league meetings with Real Madrid including a victory at the Bernabeu and in 6 meetings with Barcelona this season they are yet to be beaten – and against La Liga’s top 6 they have won all their away games so far.

This already has the shape of a game that could go all the way to extra time and penalties, but Chelsea had no problem with a more aggressive approach against PSG when the French club sat back to play on the break and they should have had the game wrapped up before Demba Ba’s 87^th minute winner. Breaking down Atletico – and keeping them as quiet as they did in Spain last week when they go forward in search of their opener – will be a different matter, but at home, with more options than anyone thought they would have – John Terry has recovered to partner Gary Cahill in defence and the pair will be ably protected by their midfielders and wingbacks  -  they have the quality to edge Atletico with home advantage and give Jose yet another night to remember.

Advice

1 pt Chelsea (6/4 general)

1 pt Chelsea 1-0 (6/1 general)

 

Already Advised

2 pts each/way Juventus (20/1 Hills, 18/1 general)

1 pt each/way PSG (16/1 general)

1 pt each/way Borussia Dortmund (20/1 general)

1 pt each/way Atleico Madrid (40/1 Coral)