Champions League Quarter Finals 2013/14 - Bayern Munich v Manchester United

Of this year’s four Champions League quarter finals, Bayern Munich v Manchester United had widely been picked as the most predictable, but after a shock draw at Old Trafford – a phrase few would imagine they’d seen written about United – the outcome of this game is up in the air and while even without winning, Bayern left in pole position with their away goal as it stand putting them through.

With home advantage and the away goal on their side, they’re just 1/6 to qualify but the reality is likely to be far more complicated than that. Many, me included, expected the tie to be over before tonight but United’s simple gameplan, carried out brilliantly, well and truly mastered Bayern’s attacking prowess a week ago when conceding 74% of possession but actually having more shots on target than their visitors, shading that count 4-3 over the 90 minutes and on the balance of chances created, United could be aggrieved not to be heading here in front, with Danny Wellbeck missing when straight through. Coming here infront would have given United a real edge but as it stand’s they have more than a punchers’ chance of shocking Bayern – or at least public opinion.

Convention says that Bayern will find the final ball that was so lacking in their visit to Old Trafford last week at the Allianz Arena but United have consistently performed far above themselves in their Champions League camping and barring a 3-0 defeat to Olympiakos, have put in some of their best showings away from home in Europe. The same is also true of the Premier League, where they sit top of the Premier League away table despite having their worst league season in well over a decade.

Their 4-0 win at Newcastle, while actually achieving little and reminding us of how much Juan Mata would boost their chances, also showed the promise of Adnan Januzaji and Shinji Kagawa at St James’s Park while Wayne Rooney consistently exposed Bayern on the counterattack last week with Danny Wellbeck and Antoio Valencia on isolated occasions threatening the Bayern backline.

Bayern should get more clear cut chances tonight with United having to score to go through but apart from Manuel Fellani’s momentary lack of attention, Arjen Robben’s snapshot and a Thomas Muller halfchance Bayern never threatened properly and it is difficult to know why the result tonight should be different if Bayern attack at the same tempo.

Bayern are also without Bastian Schweinsteiger, suspended from last week, and Javi Martinez, would have been an effective guard against the counterattacks United are presumably likely to use. Having Thomas Muller and Mario Mandzukic in the side is a forced blessing in the creative stakes – as Lahm is as good in midfielder as he is out wide – but the return of Dante may not be the blessing that many think with him and Jerome Boateng badly exposed three or four times against pace last week.

United are 11/2 to qualify which is a tempting price along with the same odds on a draw, but Bayern’s massive perceived superiority allows us for a large margin on the handicap. United +1 and 2 is of great interest but the +1.75 Asian handicap allows for a two goal defeat with half our stake back and that is where we’ll settle.

Advice

4 pts United +1.75 on Asian H’Cap (4/5 BetVictor)