The week after the Masters can have a huge ‘The Lord Mayor’s
Show’ feeling after it, although the RBC Heritage is a fine event in itself and
does offer rich compensation for those who didn’t have the weekend they’d hoped
for at Augusta, along with – a unique trait shared between the two – the same
course, year in, year out.
With that in mind, Jordan Speith and Matt Kuchar are obvious
market favourites and deserved ones at that. Speith confirmed himself to be one
of the most promising of what seems to be a richly gifted generation of rookie
golfers with a magnificent showing on the final Sunday. A sensational chip in
early out of the bunker at the hole that had ruined the chances of Rory McIlroy
and Lee Westwood, where only 10 had made birdies all week out of the field, saw
him take a two shot lead and become favourite, although a trip to the water at
12 – like so many before – swung the momentum back in favour of winner Bubba
Watson. But even then the poise and prowess that he showed over the four days,
and for the final round especially, was beyond belief for his age – as it was
for the extremely impressive Jonas Blixt, who has three top 30’s in his three
majors and is looking a likely contender for the US Open in a month’s time at
triple figure prices – belied his years and if he can keep injury free there’s
not telling of what he can achieve with such a strong all round game.
Kuchar may have ended weakly after threatening to get
involved for the majority of the event but it’s a third big effort of the
season and he has delivered for each/way supporters big time in the last month
with a fourth (tied), second (tied), and fifth (tied). His game looks to be
working close to his peak and it’s hard to find any reason why he shouldn’t
contend here – his Heritage record makes for good reading – but with regards to
a win view he’s now failed to get over the line when in with a potential chance
three times in a row, trading odds on for twice of those, and that, along with
a gruelling comedown after such an effort.
The same problem may blunt Speith’s natural talent, along
with the notorious winds on a course that has some of the smallest greens of
any PGA venues – ones that saw him shoot 74 when the winds blew hardest last
year. He can make a bold bid with more experience under his belt this time and
his finish last year in spite of that was impressive, but at 16’s and 18’s well
leave him and Kuchar out reluctantly.
Third favourite Luke Donald is likely to have none of that
appeal at the top of the market after a dreadful time at Augusta, but recent
players at the last stages here have not been unduly affected and his Heritage
record is just outstanding, with form figures of 2-37-2-3-2 in the last 5
years. The course here is almost as difficult as Augusta, and arguably is far
more punishing with opportunities arguably far fewer, so such figures are
immensely impressive and while he missed the cut last week, there are
mitigating circumstances behind that before the fact you see that he went close
after a missed cut in 2009.
At Augusta a ‘dumb mistake’ when a two-shot penalty for
touching the sand with his club after failing to escape from a greenside bunker
at the first attempt on the par-four ninth contributed greatly towards him
missing the cut although the round of two under that he shot was a good effort
and confirms the earlier promise of a season that had seen four straight top
25’s, suggesting that a new sing is finally combining with a richly talented
short game. He is worth giving another chance here.
Brandt Snedeker denied Luke Donald when coming from the
clouds to nail him in 2011 and for much of the same reasons, he’s worth giving
another chance to this weekend. His season hasn’t been half as promising but he
was on the fringes for a long way at Augusta before crumbling through moving
day – it’s worth nothing that he got the worst of the tee times when the wind
was at it’s hardest and also with the greens at their quickest, as noted when
he 5 putted the par three fourth to end his chances, having also incurred a
penalty earlier in the round. He’d be far from the last to bounce back from a
poor effort here and he’s worth keeping the faith with.
Moving away from the major names, Kevin Na has gone under
the radar to a certain event but could peak here. Having placed in what used to
be called the Tampa Bay Championship, at a course that shares many of the same
qualities and needs the same skills as Harbour Town, he also has a strong
record here with a fourth in 2007 followed by an eighth and ninth place finish
here in each of the last two years. He has 20 top 5 finishes in his last 6
tournaments including strong efforts in the Arnold Palmer and Texas Open on his
last two starts and a three week break could leave him fresh here.
Going back to young potential, Russell Henley noted his
class when being one of only three players to shoot under 70 here last year, a
fine effort before one considered that he was debuting here and his tied sixth
finish suggested that at 24 this tournament could be one he was contending for
sooner rather than later. He has since held superb nerve to win a mental finish
to the Honda Classic, chipping in for birdie before finding the water next time
out before Rory McIlroy threw his chance away; He then won a 4 man playoff.
Henley couldn’t handle the attention after his previous win, missing 11 cuts in
32 tournaments and never finding higher than sixth as he tasted tournaments
such as Masters, PGA Championship, four World Golf Championships, Open, and
U.S. Open.
After his Honda Classic win one might have feared the same
with a 47th at the World Golf Championships before missing the cut
at the Arnold Palmer, but a seventh in the Houston Open was him right back to
his best and his 31st at Augusta was a solid effort coming here.
Speit and Jonas Blixt deserve huge credit for their
magnificent first time efforts at Augusta, but Billy Horschel showed all the
right signs of playing the course right on his first time and following his
ninth last year, has experience here. Ranking second for greens hit – the one
stat above all that you would want on your side – his played better than his
final positon suggests and is worth chance again here.
Advice
1 pt each/way Luke Donald (20/1 Paddy Power, general)
1 pt each/way Brandt Snedeker (33/1 Paddy Power, general)
1 pt each/way Kevin Na (33/1 Paddy Power, general)
1 pt each/way Russell Henley (40/1 Paddy Power, general)
1 pt each/way Billy Horschel (50/1 Paddy Power, 60/1
general)
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