Popular belief would have you think that Liverpool are going
to beat a distracted, possibly second string, Chelsea today and with it,
effectively seal a first title in 24 years with yet another victory at Anfield
today. And in such rampant form infront of their Merseyside crowd, and 5 points
clear, it’s understandable that they’re favourites although rumours of the
Londoners having given up on the league may be premature and the so called
‘weakened team set to appear may have been severely underestimated.
Liverpool are as short as 8/13 in places, an unreal
situation for anyone to have imagined at the beginning of the season, with an
11 game winning streak having carried them to the top of the table, and all of
the numbers make ominous reading for Chelsea ahead of tomorrow’s trip. Since a
1-0 loss at home to Southampton, Liverpool have won 14 of their 15 games at
Anfield in all competitions with the other being a draw. They have also scored
96 goals (29 more than Chelsea) and at Anfield especially average exactly 3
goals a game, largely thanks to the sensational form of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge.
The latter is likely to be a massive blow for Liverpool, missing today’s game
through injury, but an adept midfield including Raheem Sterling has provided
brilliance on many occasions for a side that has beaten 2nd to 7th
in the league at home. Taking that into account, and it’s understandable
that
However for all these impressive stats and the confusion surrounding
Chelsea’s commitments, the blues could fall into a different category. The
Premiership has seen some more than questionable defending this year but even
after last week’s defeat at Sunderland Chelsea have the lowest amount of goals
conceded in the league by some margin with just 26 against them – 18 less than
Liverpool for reference – and have been by far the most solid of the top 6 on
their travels this season adopting a conservative approach that mirrors the one
embodied in midweek to such effect.
There is talk of a changed team but Mikel and Lampard’s
suspensions from the second leg mean they will surly partner the ineligible
Matic in midfield – going forward Salah will partner Schurrle in the case of with Ba likely to
spearhead a side that has a Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Kalas, and Cole as a back four; A team that I’m pretty sure would go close for the title.
Liverpool have overwhelmed the majority of their rivals,
including City and especially their top in the first 25 minutes of games but
upon every occasion they have suffered a drop off in intensity that has allowed
opposition into proceedings in each of the last 3 weeks, most notably when City
controlled proceedings for half an hour following the break and were unlucky not
to turn around their two goal deficit – that day they were gifted a winner by
Vincent Kompany’s mishit clearance. They were good value for their win on that
occasion, and better value for their win last week, but on both occasions
Norwich and City got right back in the game and Chelsea’s deeper playing style combined
with Liverpool’s uber aggressive approach are the perfect conditions for
Mournihio’s side to prosper. The market looks to have come to it’s senses about
Chelsea’s chances – from 9/2 earlier in midweek they are now 4/1 – but there’s
8/11 about them getting a one-goal start on the Asian handicap. In their 5 away
defeats all season they have lost just once by more than one goal and they have
the most points – 12 – in matches between members of the current top 4. If one
assumes that Liverpool and Chelsea will score – a common occurrence in Anfield
games this season – then the score draw at 4/1 and 13/2 for a Chelsea no clean
sheet win become massive value options.
Advice
3.5 pts Chelsea +1 on Asian handicap (8/11 32 Red, Betdaq)
1 pt Chelsea to win and both teams to score (13/2 general)
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