It’s a common generalization to (correctly) point out that French rugby teams have a lamentable record on the road but beating them at home is a different matter and Munster’s invasion of Marseille looks very likely to come up short against defending champions Toulon today.
The Redmen have had a strong season upto this point, with an easy pool won in facile fashion following up by a destruction of Toulouse at the quarter final stage infront of the Thompond Park faithful backed up by a strong Pro12 run, but they will have to find a new level of intensity today to cope with the likely onslaught that their hosts will provide.
Toulon's defence of their own title - and their season - hasn't been without troubled patches but since the new year they've become the sum of their parts and now sit at the head of the Top 14 at the business end of the season thanks to a run of seven wins in their last 8 league games - an impressive run in itself before one considers the fact that their defeat came at Clermont, unbeaten in 76 games at home, with two away successes, a quite phenomenal feat in the Top 14.
The way they brushed aside Perpignan away from the Mayol with a bonus point was particularly ominous for this weekend's matchup given the levels that we know they can reach at home.
Munster's away record is a formidable one in itself - after all their last gasp win at Perpignan pushed them towards their home quarter final - but Toulon's quarter final destruction of Leinster was a performance only bettered by Saracens' semi final win yesterday and it is a marker of the task that Munster are facing the same Leinster side that beat then with homefield advantage at the Aviva stadium the weekend before.
The loss of Peter O'Mahony, while not terminal, is a crushing blow against a pack that has such dynamism and power in equal messier and the key aim of their game will be to use the choke tackle in a fashion similar to Ireland in this year's 6 Nations, a Gameplan they're more than capable of carrying out with CJ Stander and Paul O'Connell amongst their ranks, but the great strength of Toulon has been their unity as a pack and Smith, Armitage and Lobbe could give them the edge at the breakdown. Behind the scrum both sides have plenty of options but the class of Giteau as a playmaker behind Wilkinson and the pace of Mitchell, Armitage and Habana could stretch the game beyond reach. Our backing of a Saracens/Toulon final gives us a solid position but a mark of 6 gives short cover to the travelling men in red.
Advice
1 pt Toulon -6 (20/21 Bet365)
Already Advised
2 pts Saracens v Toulon final (9/4 Ladbrokes)
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