Champions League Semi Finals 2013/14 - Atletico Madrid v Chelsea

The last time Chelsea faced Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, the scored over their two legs was 6-2 and the beating they received at the hands of the Blues at Stamford Bridge proved enough to bring about a change of manager for the Spanish club before a 2-2 draw with a much changed outfit at the Calderon saw Sergio Aguero break through.

Tonight Chelsea come here as 4/1 outsiders for the first leg of Atletico’s first European semi-final in over 40 years; A sign of just how much has changed in Madrid. The past 4 years have two a pair of Europa League triumphs and last year a Copa Del Rey, but tonight they face Chelsea three wins away from a first La Liga titles and slight favourites to go through to the final in Lisbon.

And nobody could argue that they don’t deserve it. Madrid have been flawless in all competitions this season barring a Copa Del Rey exit to neighbours Real Madrid and a wobble when they suffered two heavy defeats in away games in February but since a draw against Real in the league they have won their last eight games home or away, including the 1-0 win against Barcelona that sees them at this stage tonight, a scoreline that belies just how impressive they were; In the first 25 minutes they had hit both posts and the crossbar, and had the better of the chances for the large majority of the game.

Since their draw against Real, Madrid have shown all the qualities that have bought them to this stage. In their eight games since they’ve conceded just one goal, and won their last 5 at home to nil. In their last 11 they’ve conceded just three and in the Champions league they have the best defence with just 5 goals conceded from 10 matches. The allowance of Thaibut Cortouis to play is a huge boost, with his shot sopping crucial to their progression against Barcelona, and if they add to his total of 26 clean sheets this season tonight they will feel more confident of reaching the final.

 

Chelsea, however, will be a very different test to the ones they have faced so far. Atielti’s counter attacking style has proven to be too much for nearly all opposition but facing a Jose Mourinho side that would appear to be  – without making overblowing a tired references to parking the bus – set up for containment and to spring upon the counter attack, the style that has favoured them far more in England than when faced with breaking a side down, which has seen some frustrating performances in the league, notably away from home (especially in defeats to Crystal Palace and Aston Villa to name two recent examples, and upon both those occasions wastefulness infront of goal has proven costly.  A changed side, albeit not a weak one, seemed to struggle with profligacy infront of goal once again when a shock loss to Sunderland knocked their title hopes into all but shreds at the weekend.

However with Europe now their only realistic trophy chance to read too much into that performance would prove unhelpful and a siege mentality that Jose has used to such effect could prove to be the spark they need once again. Chelsea ‘s away form in Europe is a worry – they have been held by Galatasaray, were beaten by Basle in the group stages, and while a 3-1 margin of victory flattered PSG in their quarter final they were not undeserving of victory based on a strong start and finish to the match that night.

The same lapses in concentration are not likely to appear here with a team that should present an extremely hard  challenge to break down and from a neutral viewpoint this game is hard to evaluate given Chelsea’s decision to leave Oscar and Schurrle on the bench while Eto’o, their best striker this season, not even present, raising questions as to whether the sharp attacking bursts we saw against PSG or when they bested Manchester City tonight. Atletico have been magnificent and are deserving of favouritism but haven’t looked so comfortable dominating the ball and this may end in a blowout, and I’ll sit on my 40/1 ante post with a hedge of Chelsea on the night.

Advice

1 pt Chelsea +0.75 on Asian h’cap (9/10 Bet Victor)