Real Madrid’s title challenge may have suffered a 4 day
disintegration, with back to back defeats derailing the previously strong La
Liga favourites, but they should feel confident about avenging their semi final
defeat against Borussia Dortmund in style tonight and reaching yet another semi
final in their bid for a tenth La Decima.
Madrid came to this stage last year hoping to reach a final
for the first time since their famous Hampden night in 2001 but were
eviscerated in Germany by a truly rampant Dortmund side in Germany, building a
three goal lead that could not be pulled back in Madrid despite late efforts.
How different things are a year later. Madrid, despite their
setbacks of late, are still right at the forefront of the La Liga title, in the
final of the Copa Del Rey, and approach this quarter final as heavy favourites
for yet another semi final spot. Barring those two defeats in the league, the
last time they had lost was at Barcelona in October. They have 14 wins to their
name domestically to add to their cup final run, and eviscerated Schalke 9-2
over two legs in the round of 16.
Dortmund are two points behind Schalke coming into tonight’s
game primarily thanks to one thing; injuries. Jurgen Klopp’s side has not been
known for defending but their slim, albeit high quality, squad has suffered
like at no other point under his tenure this season. The back 4 has not had a clear run as a four
all year, and both Neven Subotic and Marchel Schmelzer are absent for tonight’s
game. So is Ilkay Gundogan with a back problem and Sven Bender, and while those
are all hard absences to deal with, the absence of Jakub Blaszczykowski and
Robert Lewandowski (suspended) may be terminal for their chances in the tie.
Blaszczykowski’s incisive wing play proved decisive at times last year and
Lewandowski’s four goals were just a fifth of the 20 that he has scored or
created for Dortmund in the Champions League out of their last 40.
Madrid’s foursome of Di Maria, Bale, Benzema and Ronaldo
have scored an astonishing 86 goals between the in the league this season and
29 between them in the Champions League. Dortmund avoided defeat in three of
their 4 games against Madrid last season but it is not the same side that will
travel to the Bernabeu, one of the hardest games in world football. No side
since Barcelona in 2011 has won here or prevented Madrid from scoring at the
Bernabeu (in the Champions League they are yet to be held in 33). Last year it
is forgotten that Dortmund could have been overwhelmed early before halftime
but were let of the hook due to some slack finishing and Madrid come here playing
down claims of revenge, but in arguably better shape than before while this
Dortmund side, even coming off a morale boosting win at Stuttgart, is
unrecognizable to the one that came here last year. Madrid should be looking to
win the game and the tie before their visit to Germany and can do so here, with
the one goal handicap our preferred betting method.
Advice
4 pts Real Madrid -1 (20/21 general)
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