It’s the last ever Heineken Cup but in the first semi-final
at Wembley both Saracens and Clermont will be aiming to give themselves a
chance of winning the tournament for the first time.
The two met in the quarter finals 2 years ago when Clermont
were so dominant in winning 22-3 that there were several serious article
written about the Premiership salary cap, but things have changed drastically
in the two years since and Mark McCall’s men come into this game on a roll that
many hope will carry them towards cherishes silverware.
The men in black come here with eight victories in their
last 9 – the sole defeat being their LV Cup semi-final at Franklins Gardens
when a much changed outfit was used, a result that was reversed in style
despite a flatteringly close scoreline at Allianz Park– and whatever the result
this afternoon, with a home semi final awaiting in the Premiership, they can
feel strong about their chances of domestic success as well.
Given their ‘home’ – Wembley is likely to be just a third full
with a window of only three weeks for Saracens to sell tickets – advantage, it
is actually surprising to see Saracens as the relatively clear underdogs for
this final across the board.
Clermont’s strong European record – despite a propensity to
fall at the final hurdle in major tournaments since their Top 14 records – has
given them favouritism but their away record is cause for great concern, with
just two wins and a draw in the Top 14. That may be indicative of the casual
nature taken to travelling in France, but in two home games against English
opposition their inability to build upon rapid starts (16-0 v Harlequins in the
group stages and 19-0 v Leicester in the quarter final) saw them become very
vulnerable for extended period against the Tigers in particular they were
scraping over the line with Alain Rolland’s questionable decision late on
preventing what looked like a game winning attack.
Saracens will need to finish better than they did with a man
advantage – for 70 minutes - when scraping home against Ulster in a heated
quarter final at Ravenhill but the overwhelming majority of their performances
infront of their own, including at Wembley when dispatching Harlequins a month
ago, will present a serious challenge for the travelling visitors. The
advantage of being able to rest most of their first teamers in preparation for
this while Clermont were given the run-around in Paris by Racing Metro last
week is also a significant advantage for such a physical team to have onside.
A big part of Saracens’ price may be to do with their
relatively poor record against French teams – Clermont romped to victory
against them 2 years ago, Toulon’s power game shut them down and dismantled
them last year while Toulouse – a side with just as dire a record as Clermont’s
if not worse on the road – beat them at this very venue in December. However
Saracens have been playing at a higher standard for the last two months and
they make more appeal of the two sides with home advantage to right some
significant wrongs. With a hefty stake on Clermont, hedging bets seems to be
the right option and instead of the 6/4 on a straight win, the 9/4 on a
Saracens-Toulon final makes more appeal with the French giants in a vein of
form that suggests they should be too much for Munster tomorrow. Coral’s
alterative handicap has Saracens getting a start of 6 points at 11/8, which
seems overly generous for a game which has the very feel of a 50/50 to it, and
along with that, the 1-5 winning margin for Saracens at 11/2.
Advice
2 pts Saracens +6 (11/8 Coral)
1 pt Saracens – Toulon (9/4 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 (11/2 Bet Victor)
Already Advised
Advice
4 pts Clermont (5/1 general)
1 pt each/way Munster (20/1 Youwin, 16/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Northampton (25/1 Stan James, 22/1 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Montpellier (33/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 general)
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