Powers Gold Cup 2013

4.30 Fairyhouse

Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1 Novice Chase) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €58,500

Advice: 1 pt each/way Buckers Bridge (8/1 Paddy Power, 17/2 Bet Victor)

Buckers Bridge: Only been beaten once in 5 races under rules, clearly amiss when running an absolute shocker when beaten 102 length here in the Drinmore Chase (had previously beaten Grade 3 hurdling winner on their chasing debut); First run since when winning 2m1f Grade 2 event form consistent and prolific runner up (albeit receiving weight to balance fact that trip was too short for him, Dedigout well behind); Least exposed in the field with just three chase starts to name and looked the one who will be most appreciative of 2m4f in heavy ground.

Dedigout: Hasn’t quite contained the metronymic constancy that made him a Grade 1 winning hurdler this season, winning beginners’ chase at Punchestown in good style before being slammed by Arvika Legionnaire in the Drimore here; Desperately disappointing over 3m at Leopardstown and well behind Buckers Burdge before winning well at Naas three weeks ago; Chance.

Mikael D’Haugenet: Has suffered loss of form since being so promising as novice hurdler but still retain considerable talent as shown by two of his chasing wins this season (one ahead of ; Could well have had 4 had it not been for jumping errors, closing on Argocat at Christmas when coming down 5 out and set to win (travelling ominously well to say least) when hitting the third last at Naas latest; More than good enough but jumping a major issue.

Mount Benulben: Patchy chasing career but has only had one real blot on copybook, when pulled up in same 3m Grade 1 that Dedigout disappointed in; Jumped right thoughought when fourth in Grade 2 but hard not to like the way that he went about his business at Thurles latest and more than enough ability to lay down a serious challenge here.

Oscars Well: One of the best of these over hurdles - unlucky not to have won Neptune Hurdle at Cheltenham 2011 – but worst chasing effort so far when dire, 20 length second to Beneficent ( was making fight of it until the last – still set to lose - when he banked it totally and was eased; he may have won Jewson but that inconclusive)  more than enough talent to take a hand but worry that he’s got something to prove and better ground ideal.

Realt Mor: Only had the two runs for Noel Meade but can’t fail to be impressed with how he burned his rivals at Navan nearly a month ago, with only hint of a mistake coming at the second last; Serious step up in class but could get few in trouble.

VERDICT: An uber competitive renewal with any one of the 6 being realistic winners. All have some question to answer, but one could argue that BUCKERS BRIDGE is the most suited towards 2m4f on heavy ground out of the sextet and he looks to be the value of the field if one discounts his dire run in the Drinmore here when behind Dedigout, form he reversed when winning a Grade 2 over a trip too short for his liking latest. Mikael D’Haugenet and Oscars Well have the two best pieces of hurdling form into her race but are blighted by their jumping, and Mount Benbulben looks to be a worthy favorite.

UAE Derby 2013

2.25 Meydan

UAE Derby Sponsored By Al Naboodah (Group 2) (Tapeta) (3yo)

Winner: £736,196

Advice: 2 pts each/way Lines Of Battle (8/1 general)

Law Enforcement: Bookended his fine improvement as juvenile with Italian Group 1 after wins in maiden and nursery company (off 78 and 83); May well improve again but this a much otugher test and others make more appeal.

Ellevial: Fourth in the C&D al Bastakiya last time behind Secret Number, Zahee and Snowboarder, but may have been flattered by slow pace there and clear run wouldn’t have seen him win; Others preferred.

Now Spun: Created good impression when taking Leicester maiden (soft) at Leicester last season and deeply impressive at Meydan last time when beating Deauville Prince; Don’t imagine Tapeta will be a problem and commands plenty of respect here even if second sting of Godolphin.

Lines Of Battle: Very impressive on debut in way his dismissed subsequent group winner Leitir Mor at Curragh and never put into the race when sixth in very strong Coventry; Disappointing turned over at Curragh (although that horse did go onto win Group 2) but one start on AW a very impressive win and did well considering draw at Breeders’ Cup; Should go well.

Dice Flavour: Come from humble background to win El Camino Real Derby over 1m1ff on Tapeta; This trip should be OK but steep step up in class form that event.

Emotif: Struggled in Dubai since winning sole start in SA last year, and behind 4 of these in Al Bataskiya latest; Passed over.  

Secret Number: First major signs of promise when overcoming a slow start on debut at Kempton but real star potential when beating many of these in the Al Bastakiya over C&D, defying slow start and wide trip to come home and still win cosily; The one to beat on that form and should take some stopping.

Zahee: Withing two lengths of Secret Number last time but well beaten and very falttered to get so close so look elsewhere.

Shurqu: Fillies been sub-par so far this year but did win the UAE Oaks by 4 lengths despite going widest all the way round, which must be noted; Could come on for cheekpieces once again and dangerous to dismiss out of hand.

Keiai Leone: Triple winner over 7f in Japan (dirt) but well held there latest and surface and trip botyh question marks.

Snowboarder: Unsuited by slow pace when only third in the Al Batisky and catching heels down the back straight didn’t help matters

He’s Had Enough: Second in Breeders Cup Juvenile but the more that time passes, the more he is flattered by that through having delayed his challenge late.

VERDICT: There’s any amount of promise to come from Secret Number and he’s greatly respected, but LINES OF BATTLE looks to have his optimum conditions for a trainer that had had excellent success with his limited runners here, including last year’s winner and the second by a nose the year before that.

Dubai Gold Cup 2013

1.45 Meydan

Dubai Gold Cup Sponsored By Al Tayer Motors (Group 3) (Turf) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner: £368,098

Advice: 1 pt each/way Calvaryman (6/1 general)

Imperial Monarch: Looked a horse with a future when winning first two starts (maiden and Group 3 at Sandown, both of which have gone onto work out well), with more in hand than winning distance suggests on both occasions, an impression he backed up when unlucky in French Derby and then a tight winner of Grand Prix De Paris; Impression that he needs soft ground and comes from sub par generation given from his sixth in Canadian International when last seen, although that was three months after he ran in France; This quickest ground he’s run on but 2 miles should bring plenty of improvement out of him.

Ahzeemah: Hard not to think that being race ready and benefitting from a handy ride when taking 1m6f trial from many others here; Can get 2 miles but flattered by that result and others make more appeal here.

Calvaryman: Twice a listed winner last year and went well for long way in Melbourne Cup, while return in 1m4f Group 2 proves that he’s in good shape; Has to be one of the main principals here with 2m not a problem.

Sesimos: Dual Group 3 winner over 1m2f to 1m4f in Germany last year; Hard to get grasps on that form and others preferred despite to improve for trip.

Jutland: Won weak Abu Dhabi Group 3 and surprise if he can land a blow.

Verema: Set too much to do when fourth in Group 2 over 1m7f in France and probably wanted less testing ground when fourth in Prix Royal Oak; Should have more to offer here and this trip on fast surface may well bring the best out of her.

Saddlers Rock: Was near the top of the stayers class when third in Ascot Gold Cup and then winner of Goodwood’s equivalent but disappointing since, even if he hasn’t quite had his conditions; Should go well today.

Tenebaum: Progressive stayer in France last year and did well to come so close considering how awkward his finish effort was in C&D trial; Should go much better over 2m and great chance based on that formline.

Averroes: Lost his form since fourth in this last year.

Star Empire: Very closely matched with Zaamah but that one sure to stay and deeper race.

VERDICT: Despite a relatively disappointing effort when last seen, there’s still plenty to like about Imperial Monarch, who should improve hand over fist for the steup upto 2m, although there’s s suspicion that he needs to get his toe in and a race which may be more slowly run than your average staying contest wouldn’t suit. The 1m6f trial that Azzemah won from several who are entitled to improve for today’s race should be a key form guide, but CAVALRYMAN’S recent reappearance was arguably stronger than any of those and he gets the vote. 

Godolphin Mile 2013

1.10 Meydan

Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Etisalat (Group 2) (Tapeta) (3yo+)

Winner: £368,098

Advice: 1 pt each/way Surfer (15/2 Hills, Bet Victor, 8/1 Sportingbet)

Alpha: Dead heated in Travers Stakes last year but failed to get anywhere close to that form since and others make far more appeal .

Murfarrh: Helped by an overly strong gallop when winning C&D handicap latest (went notably wider than runner up) when landing C&D handicap latest but runner up in this last year and worth considering on that basis with winner going for World Cup and rest of field closely matched

Red Jazz: Coming back here for the third time, having been third in this for two years running; Little below top class in Europe but still better than able to show on return (ridden all wrong); Still needs more here even if that run brings him on notably.

Time Prisoner: Talented in France and still progressive here, denying mark of 112 in handicap company and then staying on well when fourth in Group 3 over 6f; Still may have more to give and worth considering.

Zazou: Talented horse over further, as his World Cup fifth last time showed, but not lose to that level in two runs for his yard and this trip plenty sharp enough for one like him; Look elsewhere.

Surfer: Improved hand over first here over last year, winning twice in November and December at Jebel Ali (7f) before two excellent efforts in Group 2 and 1 company over 10f, both times coming a respectable distance behind Godolphin’s No.1 World Cup hope Hunter’s Light; This drop in trip should suit him down to a tee and arguably the form horse of the field.

Sarkiyla: Only the eight starts but already a Group and Listed winner and clear from her form that she likes a good surface (slightly disappointing on softer ground the last twice); Could go well with yet more to come and high on list.

Master Of Hounds: Went too hard when trying to repeat the front running tactics that saw him steal last year’s Jebel Hatta; This a little easier on the figures and has got the class to go well, so interesting especially if not pressured for the lead.

Rerouted: Shaped very well on each of his  four starts this season, twice arriving too late into the fray over 9f and shaping as if a mile would suit when in two smooth 7f wins; This demands more of him than just 115 however and others make more appeal.

Haatheq: Totally worked over by the draw last year (13/13) and hasn’t had a great trip since then, 14/14 when fourth in Group 3 over C&D and never able to land a blow in Group 1 latest although he was well behind Surfer there; Of interest although work to do to reverse form with that one.

Penitent: Excellent record fresh, and career best efforts in succession when winner of Joel Stakes and then second in Prix La Foret behind Gordon Lord Bryon; Surface an unknown but another with a chance (stronger than most) and he has acted on Polytrack before.

Capital Attraction: May be 6 but been on an upwards curve for good year now and second last year to African Story, and showed he’s at same level when second to same horse last time out although able to dictate then; Outside chance but draw no help.

Soft Falling Rain: Very impressive when unbeaten 4-4 as juvenile in South Africa (all sprint trips) and impressive on both starts so far here, winning nicely over 7f and a mile (UAE Guineas) although both races not worked out so well; While he can progress further still, this a lot harder and draw 13 does not make things easy for him; Vulnerable.

Saamidd: So much promise as 2yo but never been the same since Dewhurst disappointment and while he’s shown promise in the UAE on last two starts late in the day but drawn in 14 and that means the hold-up route is likely to be best chance of success; More needed.

Moonwalk In Paris: Ex French and still carries same quirks which hindered him in France judged on way he reacted to more front running ride when one place behind Capital Attraction (previously very impressive from behind having started in stall 1); Far too wide for anything but the drop in tactics to be used but this a deep event.

Barbecue Eddie: Had no answer to Moonwalk In Paris’s speed when third in Group 3 event over C&D although he had won Group 2 beforehand; 16 of 16 is a nightmare draw though and looks slightly exposed.

VERDICT: A tight renewal with many that are closely matched. Soft Falling Rain still has plenty to give judged on his two easy wins here so far but both races have worked out very badly, this is a lot tougher, and a draw of 13 is very off-putting for a race this well contested. In any case, he’s not the form horse in the race, an hour which belongs to SURFER following two efforts behind World Cup contender Hunter’s Light over 10 furlongs. The drop back to a mile will really suit him, and with a perfect draw in stall 6, he looks to be the outstanding value of the race although chances can be given to many in an open betting event. 

Premiership - 29th March 2013

With just four games to go until the end of the season, every week is a crucial one in the Premiership but when third plays fifth, first plays sixth and second plays fourth, it’s fair to say that this might be one of the more defining weekends of the season so far, especially when considering that in each of the three crunch games, as if to add more spice, the higher placed team is travelling.

Champions Harlequins are on the brink of slipping out of the top two places and missing out on a home semi-final after two defeats in their last two games and are slight outsiders for their crunch game with Gloucester tonight, presumably upon the basis that they have had only a five day turnaround from a heavy beating at Saracens, while Gloucester’s contingent are expected to improve markedly for their first outing in three weeks last weekend. That may well be accurate, but Gloucester needed a penalty 5 minutes from time to sneak past relegation favorites London Welsh by a single point in a game that they were lucky to win by all accounts – there was the issue of Johnny May pretty much preventing an overlap and try which wasn’t punished with the penalty try that head coach Lyn Jones wanted and Gordon Ross’s missed kick and conversion going array before three late penalties in 13 minutes from Freddie Burns. It may well be that the Cherry and Whites – with players like Freddie Burns and Billy Twelvetrees especially at the focus of their attacking threat -improve greatly for the outing, but Harlequins are several levels about what London Welsh have to offer in every department and may have received an important wakeup call with those defeats in the last two weeks. The heavy workload they’ve had has been co in some part with members of the LV Cup winning side now coming into the starting XV to give freshness. There’s a big worry that they’ve not won at Kingsholm since 1999, but Gloucester don’t look like value favourites and an away win by 1-12 or 1-5 points looks to be the best value in the game; Given that Quins have won by two three and 5 points on the road this term and beat Gloucester by just three points at home, the latter looks to be the value although start of 3 points at 10/11 with Coral is tempting.

Moving on from what should be a feat of Friday night running rugby, Northampton and Leicester square off in what can safely be described without offence as a game for the hardmen between two of the best packs in England. With four wins in their last 4, all thanks to their classic driving maul, the Saints are now probably favorites for a semi-final spot from the chasing pack of Gloucester and Wasps with a 4 point lead over that pair going into this weekend, and with key figures such as Dylan Hartley all at their best, they’ll feel confident about beating their famed rivals on home soil. However most of Northampton’s successes this season have come against rivals with weaker packs than them – both Saracens and Harlequins were clear winners there earlier in the season while the pace of Johnny May did for them in a 27-11 home defeat – and Leicester, who have the best away record in the league with 27 points gained on the road, boast both the weapons upfront and the skill in behind to take the honors here by the tightest of margins.

The bet of the weekend however, is resurgent Saracens to inflict just a second defeat upon Wasps at home this season and put one foot into the semi-finals, with home games against Bath and Worcester still to come before the end of the season. Mark McCall’s side have so often been cruised for playing less attractive rugby than most here but this season nothing could have been more different and the way in which they took apart Harlequins was one of the most impressive performances of the club season so far.

Admittedly their recent streak has been aided with three home games on a pitch they’re now well accustomed too but there’s no denying their talent, form or position in the table – they lie 45 points clear and have won two more games than anyone else so far – and boast a pack at least as powerful as the Saints bunch that forced Wasps into three yellow cards last weekend, while the go forward offloading game they employed last weekend looked to be an ideal tactic to take on Wasps with. The home side should enjoy the more positive approach Saracens take and the more charitable weather, but this is England’s meanest defence and the leaders can fight fire with fire if they like; Either way, they look to be the clear bet.

Advice

6 pts Saracens (8/11 general)

1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Harlequins to win by 1-15 points (9/2 general)

1 pt Leicester to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general) 

Super 15 2013 - Week 7

Highlanders (3/4) v Reds (5/4)

The Highlanders have had an awful start to the season for the talent the possess but they may be able to expose a Reds side which has made a slower start than expected despite being able to grind out 4 wins from 6 games. The return of most of the Reds backline has seen them play much better rugby, but it’s worth remembering that game went to the 90^th minute and the Highlanders do have the backline talent in the excellent 9/10 pairing of Smith and Slade, along with Nonu and Gear, to get at the Reds with enough ball, and this is probably the best chance they’ve had so far of a win.

Advice: 1 pt Highlanders to win by 1-12 points (7/4 general)

Hurricanes (1/66) v Kings (33)

Two successive big match wins have provided a timely relief for the Highlanders after two early defeats, and with a bye last week the Kings are the perfect opponents at home. The Kings have been admirable so far, but the quality sides have been beating them with ease and a similar scenario is on the cards, with home handicaps of upto 30 being more than acceptable based on their 35 point defeat to the Crusaders last week, although a home points line should be better value towards the time.

Advice: 1 pt Hurricanes -27 (10/11 Betfred)

Chiefs (1/3) v Blues (3)

The Chiefs have made a storming start towards defending their title, with only the Stormers on South African soil proving too good for them, and they should be well up to putting the Blues away. Finding value is tricky, but it’s well worth nothing that the Chiefs are a much stronger side after the break – they kept the Highlanders scoreless, outscored the Kings by 7 after the break, did the same to the Stormers, put 35 second half points on the Cheetahs (four of their tries coming after the 60^th minute) and put 25 second half points on the Highlanders on the opening day. The Blues scored just 3 second half points when capitulating in Syndey last week and may feel the force of a second half onslaught, so the 2^nd half handicap of just 3 points looks to be the bet.

Advice: 3 pts Blues -3 on 2^nd half handicap (5/6 Coral)

Brumbies (4/11) v Bulls (3)

The Brumbies were beaten for the first time last week but there was no shame in going to the Stormers and suffering a loss which was exaggerated by a late interception try  towards the end, and their 5 previous wins had been hugely impressive, including two wins here where they had conceded just 6 points to the Reds and Waratahs. They look capable of beating the Bulls, who arguably should have beaten the Reds in Queensland last week but are facing a side in far superior form. The home side to win both halves at 6/4 is interesting and the points line will be the real bet when they come out but for now a win by 8 points looks more than manageable.

Advice: 2 pts Brumbies -7 (10/11 general)

Cheetahs (1/7) v Rebels (7)

The Cheetahs have had a great start to the season and really impressed with their win over the Force last week considering the crucial loss of Johan Goosen. There couldn’t be a better time to play the Rebels, smashed 64-7 by the Sharks last week and with Beale and Vuna having been sent home in disgrace over the week, a 14 point gap could be generous.

Advice: 1 pt Cheetahs -14 (10/11 general)

Stormers (1/2) v Crusaders (15/8)

The game of the weekend without a doubt, with the Crusaders having found their form in the last two weeks thanks to two kind games at home against opposition they were entitled to beat. The Stormers on foreign soil are an entirely different challenge and while they’ll make a first of it, they may fall to a third defeat of the season.

Advice: 2 pts Stormers to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)

Waratahs (2/7) v W Force (4)

The Waratahs have been hit and miss this season but their storming comeback against the Blues could prove to be just the tonic needed and they can win what should be a high scoring game; Only the Brumbies have stopped them scoring more than 17 points all season and the home point lines should be passed if reasonable.

Advice: 1 pt over on home points line of 35 or more 

Cycling - Gent Wevelgem & Volta A Catalunya

Cycling’s classics season has already given us plenty of thrills spills, and more notably chills with Milan San-Remo amongst many of the races to have been seriously affected by freezing temperatures and snow. Gent Wevelgem, the second monument of the season, has had a significant part of the race cut in reaction to the already freezing temperatures which have battered the peloton already – Tour De France favourite Alberto Contador had to miss today’s on-going Criterium International due to cold and Slyvain Chavanel had to miss E3 Habreke earlier in the week.

There’s a huge sense of unpredictability regarding every classic but compared to other monuments Gent Wevelgem is far flatter than most of the spring events and that, along with the reduction of the race by 47KM, should prove to be a big help towards the sprinters who have found opportunities in the early classics hard to come by. With Mark Cavendish having proven himself ready for the challenge by winning the main bunch sprint in Milano San Remo it’s no surprise to see him as favourite amongst last year’s second Peter Sagan – whose Canndondale team is much underrated due to his incredible strength – and those two should take the beating if their teams decide to work for a common cause. Sagan is yet to win a major classic this season but his consistency is frightening and only opening his sprint too early cost him San Remo to Gerald Ciolek. The odds against for a top 3 finish is tempting, but if he’s close enough a straight win will do and 4.1 on Betfair appeals. If this is to be a sprinter’s race, then it would be criminal of Lotto not to put Andre Greipel – one of few fast men on the planet who can go toe to toe with Cavendish in the main position and with 14’s available on Betfair he looks to be the value.

Over in Spain, Bradley Wiggins looks set to finish out of the Volta A Catalunya top 3 unless he decides to launch an attack on any one of the seven ascents of the cat 3 Alt de Montjuïc, which comes just 3.5km from the line with a steep drop until the finish in Barcelona today. An innovative finish, it presents punchers like Joaquin Rodríguez with a chance (or seven) to take some significant seconds if able to build gaps on the short punchy climbs, with the Spaniard at present lying some 17 seconds behind leader Daniel Martin, which would explain the reasoning behind them being first and second favourites. Rodriguez is made for a stage such as today, but odds against looks too short and Nairo Quintana, who was so impressive when outspeeding the opposition on the final climb of stage 3 and also when cutting a deficit of 1.20 to 36 seconds by the finish on stage 4. As comfortable a descender as he is a climber, and much the best in short sharp bursts, a price of 10/1 with Bet365 seems very

Advice – Gent Wevelgem

1 pt Peter Sagan (4.9 Betfair)

1 pt Andre Gripel (15.5 Betfair)

Advice – Volta A Catalunya

1 pt each/way Nairo Quintana (10/1 Bet365)

Already Advised

2 pts each/way Bradley Wiggins (8/1 Paddy Power)

Malaysian Grand Prix 2013 - Post Qualifying

A rain affected qualifying came oh so close to producing the perfect result for us when Fernando Alonso had seemingly timed his fast lap just right to take the lead but it must have been the shortest spell in the lead of a pole position shootout in F1 history as Vettel and then Massa blew away his lap times with the last two laps of the session. Nevertheless, with sporadic but very strong rainfall still a possibly the each/way part of our bet for Alonso to take pole already banked – and a starting position of third the perfect spot for him to start from – we go into the race in a pretty strong position already, not forgetting the even stronger position of Felipe Massa – backed at 8/11 for a top 6 finish before qualifying – in second.

Less promising is the three-place deduction that Kimi Raikkonen suffered at the end of qualifying, but he won from seventh in Australia and we’re still of the belief that he’s in not only one of the quickest cars, but also the car that’s best at managing tyre degradations, which will be crucial in the fierce heat and sweeping corners through the dry stretchers of the race. The 2/1 we have before the race may not be value but it’s no dead rubber. Paul Di Resta’s decision to keep with slicks towards the end of Q2 cost him dearly but judged on the pace he and Adrian Stuil have showed this weekend and last, a the double points finish still holds value – the odds haven’t lengthened since qualifying.

So while we’re well stocked in terms of the pre race portfolio, there still looks to be some value in terms of the post qualifying markets and Mark Webber (pictured) is value to cement a steady qualifying performance by being top of Bet 365’s Group B against Nico Rosberg, Adrian Sutil and Jenson Button. Webber is just one place ahead of Rosberg but he posted a time nearly three tenths of a second quicker and had looked the quicker of the two all weekend. Sutiil has looked quick in patches but the Red Bull is clearly the quicker of the two cards and Jenson Button’s Mclaren has some serious issues to iron out still despite an improved performance.

Advice

3 pts Mark Webber to win Bet365’s Group B (7/4 Bet365)


Already Advised 

1 pt win Kimi Raikkonen (9/4 general) (now 15/2 w/Bet Victor and a general 7/1 after qualifying)

3 pts Felipe Massa top 6 finish (8/11 general) (Now 1/2 general) 

1 pt Force India double points finish (2/1 general)

1 pt each/way Fernando Alonso to take pole (14/1 Hills, 12/1 general)

1 pt win Fernando Alonso (7/2 general)

Malaysian Grand Prix 2013

The start to every Formula One season is dominated by on technical issue or another and this year’s hot issue seems to be tyre wear, which dominated testing and the Australian Grand Prix, with Lotus’s Kimi Raikkonen (pictured) running out a very ready and fairly comfortable winner of the first Grand Prix of the season in Australia last week with Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel never quite able to properly threaten the Finn.

Raikkkonen’s win was superb given that it came from seventh on the grid, but as far as trying to calculate a race is concerned it’s clear that while being one of the fastest cars on the grid, his Lotus is also the easiest on tyres and therefor the most manageable over race distances based on Australia. A corner heavy circuit, Albert Park is an excellent indicator of how cars handle their tyres and with many long sweeping corners Malaysia should bring similar results, even if in the past things haven’t quite turned out that way.

In Malaysia the intense track heat is sure to put yet more pressure on tyre wear, and with that in mind, Raikkonen looks to be a more than worthy favourite to take his second successive win even if some of the value from his price earlier in the week has gone, while he also looks to be value for pole based on his one lap qualifying pace so far this weekend – he pipped Sebastian Vettel in yesterday’s second practice by 0.019s after finishing the first session 0.068s off Mark Webber – certainty he would be no 6/1 shot to land the spoils on that form – and with a better qualifying performance potentially on the cards than Australia, then he makes real appeal to make it two from two and the 4/1 on him landing the title is worth an ante post bet as well. Granted, there’s a lot of the season left to, but Lotus were never stronger than at the end of last season and his price will only get shorter if he's able to get a gap upon established drivers. 

Vettel and Alonso hold obvious chances but both were well held in the later part of the race and on a circuit that will play towards the strengths of the Lotus even more, it’s hard to be enthusiastic about either of their chances, although the excellent start that Ferrari have made by their own standards bodes very well for their chances in the title race this season. In Australia there was never a moment where Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa didn’t look comfortable and with all the data supporting a three-team battle between Lotus, Ferrari and Red Bull, 8/11 looks to be very reasonable about Massa making the top 6 for the second race in a row.  The 8/13 on Lotus having two cars in the points would also make appeal, given that Grosjean could be set to improve upon last week’s limp showing when suffering a poor start and then having his strategy suffer, but the 2’s about Force India doing so for the same week is better value.

That all sounds simple enough, but the rain showers here at Malaysia can make for some dramatic changes and will have much more of an effect here in Malaysia than anywhere else on the Calendar. As seen in practice, the track will change rapidly based on how much rain falls and at what times – the pole shootout is only ten minutes and the second qualifying session just 5 minutes longer – and if the rainfall that’s expected is as dramatic as it can be then Fernando Alonso would make huge appeal for both pole and the race; His two poles last year came in rain affected qualifying sessions and his Ferrari was amongst the quickest whenever rain fell at Melbourne.

Advice – Dry

1 pt win Kimi Raikkonen (9/4 general) (now 15/2 w/Bet Victor and a general 7/1 after qualifying)

3 pts Felipe Massa top 6 finish (8/11 general) (Now 1/2 general) 

1 pt Force India double points finish (2/1 general)

Advice – Wet

1 pt each/way Fernando Alonso to take pole (14/1 Hills, 12/1 general)

1 pt win Fernando Alonso (7/2 general)

Ante post

2 pts Kimi Raikkonen to win Drivers’ Title (4/1 general)

5 pts Kimi Raikkonen to finish in 1^st three of drivers title (8/13 Paddy Power)