Tuesday 25 December 2012

Feltham Novices's Chase 2012

2.00 Kempton
Kauto Star Feltham Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark)(Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £22,780
 Advice: 2 pts Poungach w/o Dynaste (7/4 Paddy Power), 1 pt Hadrian's Approach to beat Lovcen (5/6 Hills)


Owner detailsDynaste: Very smart hurdler who has proven to be at least asgood over fences with potential to be even better judging by his two wins over2m4f (already numbers fiercely contested handicap winner Unioniste and  subsequent Grade 2 winner Court In Motion amongsthis victims); Only the one race on soft but that when trying to run the finishout of Big Bucks at Ascot and this vastly different; Should take the beatingand easily best form of those so far.

Owner detailsHadrian’s Approach: Unbeaten when staying up under rules andsignificant potential based on how he was travelling 4 out in Newbury Grade 2,along with tenacious attitude shown to grab beginners chase at Ascot out of thefire (2m3f, good to soft); Won only attempt at soft as hurdler so should handlethe ground but better jumping.

Owner detailsLovcen: Very useful novice hurdler, fourth at CheltenhamFestival in 3 miler and then winner of Aintree Grade 1 (ratded 150); Not sogood on soft this time around, staying only as beaten favourite twice this timearound in handicap hurdlers over 3m, and while he’s always looked the type tomake a chaser, this a stiff introduction.

Owner detailsMolotof: Beat subsequent dual winner on debut at Tauntonover 2m but need a lot longer for a good while so no surprise to see him uppeda mile at Doncaster latest, where he was beaten readily by promising sort (Nota through test of the trip either); Will stay trip and winner on soft butothers look to have stronger form.

Owner detailsPoungach: Very useful hurdler (rated 155) and made goodstart to life over fences, making it third time luck in softest ground he’s encounteredat Haydock (previously beat returning Court In Motion by just a nose, himselfwho was 7 lengths ahead of Theatre Guide who gave 7lbs); Sure to improve forthe step up in trip and should handle the ground, so of obvious interest.

Owner detailsTheatre Guide: Line through Court In Motion at Newbury(Court In Motion was 7 lengths ahead of him but was getting 7lbs) makes himclosely matched with Poungach but well behind Dynaste on that form (11 lengthswinner and in easy style); Winner of maiden hurdle on soft and might be more tocome but others make more appeal.

Owner detailsThird Intention: Not at all disgraced in three chase starts,two of them finishing eight lengths behind Captain Conan over 2m on softground; This far more testing and not sure stayer so best to look elsewhere.

VERDICT: If able to handle the ground, DYNASTE is by far andaway the best of these and should win easily, although that's reflected in odds of just 8/15 and he's not looked in love with the three trip; Certainly in top company over hurdles he was running on empty late. On ratings it's hard to find something to beat him, POUNGACH and Theatre Guide being closely matched, with Paul Nicholls’s charge looks much more suited to the step up in trip on the ground and is the best option in the without/place markets, while Hadrian’s Approach holds significant potential upped to this trip if his jumping allows and can get the better of betting head to heads with Lovcen, making his debut over fences. 

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