Friday, 14 December 2012

Heineken Cup - 14th - 16th December


Biarritz (1/10) v Connacht (10)

Biarrtiz’s European travel woes continued as they were soundly beaten by Connacht but home turf should see them win, although a handicap of 14 points looks a tall order on all known evidence and the home win by 1-12 is the only real appealing option. Connacht are much stronger at home but gave Harlequins and Gloucester good games on the road last year.


Advice: 1 pt Biarritz to win by 1-12 points (12/5 Stan James)

Edinburgh (11/8) v Racing Metro (4/6)

After 180 minutes without a single point in the Heineken Cup, Edinburgh restored some pride at least when gaining a losing bonus point at Racing Metro and might have fancied a first win here, but with the pool way out of their hands they seem to have accepted defeat judging by a team selection which has only one of their backline remaining from their 19-9 defeat last week. Without Greig Laidlaw, Riche Rees, and Tim Visser the Scots look unbackable and the visitors can win by 1-12 points.

Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Coral)

Benetton (5) v Leicester (2/9)

Leicester eased off the gas considerably after 4 first half tries against Treviso at Welford Road but can afford no such luxury based on the Italian’s fightback in the second half, and they may find this tougher going than expected on Italian turf. Benetton drew with Ospreys, beat Biarritz and pushed Saracens to a 6 point game in the pools last season and look good value to push the visitors to a tight game.

Advice: 1 pt Leicester to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)


Ospreys (3) v Toulouse (2/5)

Toulouse should beat the Ospreys to take full control of the pools but the Welshmen did well to keep the score respectable considering the front row injuries that they had (along with plenty of scoring chances)and might be able to push Toulouse a little more at home

Advice: 1 pt Toulouse to win by 1-12 points  (11/8 Bet365)

Harlequins (1/100) v Zebre (50)

Harlequins were superb in Italy, scoring eight tries and 57 points – and should embarrass Zebre even further this time around at the Stoop. The 35 handicap looks to be the best bet, although there might be value in a big winning margin in the morning.

Advice: 1 pt Harlequins -35 (10/11 Sportingbet)

Exeter (4/11) v Scarlets (5/2)

Exeter were superb in a truly deserved win over a very disappointing Scarlets side in Wales and they should beat the same side at home despite the return of Goerge North on the wing. Indeed with  Ian Whitten, Jack Nowell and Phil Dolman all come into the backline, they look to have the stronger reinforcements and a 1-12 home win looks fair value.

Advice: 1 pt Exeter to win by 1-12 points (11/8 Bet365)

Leinster (2/5) v Clermont (3)

Leinster’s amazing winning streak in the Heineken Cup came to an end last week but it was testament to them that they can feel aggrieved not to have won at a place where Clermont are now 51 games unbeaten. Back on home turf, they should feel confident of setting up a big bid to top the pool and a 6 point handicap is well within their reach. This is the strongest Clermont side to come to the Aviva but last week proved they’ve still got some way to go to have ambitions of beating Leinster here.

Advice: 3 pts Leinster -6 (10/11 general)

Montpellier (1/8) v Cardiff Blues (13/2)

Montpellier may have been lucky to face a 14 man Cardiff but they did beat them with eventual ease and on home soil, the result should be just as comprehensive, if not more so despite the return of Sam Warburton to the Blues.  

Advice: 1 pt Montpellier -13 (10/11 Paddy Power)


Ulster (2/11) v Northampton (7)

Ulster’s demolition of Saints last week was one of the most impressive performances in Europe all season and if previous evidence is anything to go by, then Saints could be in for a long hard night at Ravenhill. It’s less than a year ago since Ulster destroyed Leicester here, and with Saints looking short of ideas in attack last week, the home side only appeal here. Last week we mentioned that have scored more points than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 second halves, and with Northampton kept pointless after the break last week that might be the place to go, while Ulster to win by 11-20 also looks good.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster -6 on 2nd Half No Draw Handicap (5/6 Betfred), 1 pt Ulster to win by 11-20 points (12/5 Paddy Power)

Castres (1/10) v Glasgow (7)

Castres won the arm wrestle between the two sides in Glasgow last week and should seal the deal here. A handicap of 14 points is doable for the Frenchmen if they are able to show their best but the 1-12 winning option looks to be more appealing here if this turns into a similar arm wrestle.

Advice: 1 pt Castres to win by 1-12 points (7/4 general)

Saracens (4/7) v Munster (15/8)

Munster’s win in the reverse fixture improved their spectacular home record in this competition but they could easily have been beaten by Saracens had it not been for Owen Farell’s 4 penalty misses and they can overturn that result here to take control of the pool. A handicap of 4 points is reasonable but the home winning margin by 1-12 looks best and is the preferred option, with the 1-5 point winning option for the home side making appeal considering that Saracens won their home fixtures against Biarritz and Ospreys but 4 and 5 points respectively.

Advice: 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general), 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (9/2 gneral)

Toulon (1/50) v Sharks (40)

A fired up Sale Sharks and dreadfully poor conditions prevented Toulon from being anything but functional in England but at home things should be very different even with a rested side. A handicap of 23 points is more than acceptable and looks to be worth taking with sunnier weather, while the 21-30 winning margin is also an option.

Advice: 1 pt Toulon -23 (10/11 general) 

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