Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase 2012

1.25 Leopardstown
Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase (grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner €65,000

Advice: 1 pt Sizing Europe – Big Zeb straight forecast (8.23 Bet365), 1 pt Big Zeb w/o Sizing Europe (7/2 general)

Owner detailsBig Zeb: Veteran of 2m chasing game who has 6 Grade 1 wins, last of those archived in this race a year to the day (retaining title for the second time) and showed a lot of old spark when second (admittedly well beaten, but still second) to Flemenstar in Fortia Chase; Shouldn’t be able to cope with Sizing Europe (well down in head to heads) but can run with credit.

Owner detailsEdgardo Sol: Capped spectacular first season in UK with emphatic handicap chase win at Aintree by 14 lengths (now rated 150 over fences which still gives him a lot to do); Good return to hurdles when second in Newbury Listed handicap Hurdle but doesn’t look good enough.

Owner detailsFoildubh: Consistent sort, if not short of top class; Steady rise through taking big 2m5f race at Leopardstown looking unlucky when coming down in bid to take similar race next time out; Winner of a handicap hurdle and a handicap chase this year but not upto this standard.

Owner detailsForpadydeplasterer: Amazing to consider that his latest win was his first since 2009 Arkle; Not quite the same horse he was then and trashed by Sizing Europe on their last meeting.

Owner detailsRubi Light: Exceptional front running chaser at his best over intermediate trip on soft ground, as he showed when trashing rivals in 2m4f chases on two occasions last season; Very disappointing when unable to raise a gallop in John Durkan this year but badly wrong afterwards (infected lung); If back to his best, could take a big hand, but this trip shorter than he wants so would be out in front.

Owner detailsSizing Europe: Lost his Champion Chase crown by fairly narrow margin (to high class horse in Finian’s Rainbow) but not after two brilliant performances, first in Tingle Creek and then in Tied Cottage Chase, and won yet another Grade 1 in gutsy style at Punchestown Festival; Looked as good as ever in two wins this season and shouldn’t be beaten here.

Owner detailsBlazing Tempo: Plenty of ability as her numerous wins show (including Garde 2 Normans Grove Chase) but well beaten in Hilly Way Chase latest and this a lot tougher.

VERDICT: SIZING EUROPE is a class apart on paper, with none of his rivals in the 160’s on official ratings and even then being held on form or needing further, he’s safe acca/banker material. Big Zeb, who’s second placed effort in the Fortia Chase now looks even better with Flemenstar’s John Durkan romp, can follow him home with Rubi Light coming back after a lung infection and Edgardo Sol having some to prove in this company. 

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