Having had the pleasure of being at Sandy Park for two
Heineken Cup games this season, I’ve got no greater Premiership wish than to
see Exeter make the European places once again and the Chiefs can take a
big step towards that aim by gaining a first win over Bath in four attempts.
Bath were the last team to beat Exeter, but it’s never easy going to the Rec
and the Chiefs could easily have won that game but for a late onslaught at a 14
man side which were reeling badly following Dan Hipkiss’s second yellow.
Exeter have won their last 5 at home in the League and only went down by 2
points to a Gloucester side riding high in the table at Kingsholm, so are the
clear choice here with Bath reeling from a 22-0 thrashing at the hands of
Saracens last time out. The handicap of just 5 points is tempting (it would
have been overcome on all but one occasion at Sandy Park, and that against
Saracens), but the ‘no draw’ second half handicap of 2.5 points is especially tempting
given Exeter’s penchant for strong finishes at home (they’ve scored 18 out of
29 tries in the second half), and allows us to avoid the decision on a winning
margin (Exeter by 1-12 has come in only against Sacarens at the Park so far and
if Bath are as hapless as last week they could get another drubbing once
again).
Nearer the top of table, Leicester can take a step closer to
the top of table with a win against Gloucester, although it might not be pretty
with a wet and windy forecast for Welford Road tonight. These two team provided
arguably the game of the season when Gloucester emerged 27-21 winners in a pulsating
encounter in October, and it would be foolish to expect anything different this
time around, although with Leciester having battered the Cherry and Whites’
pack that day – they let in 20 penalties and had just 13 men on the pitch at
the end – and the home advantage, they should be able edge a physical encounter.
Gloucester have lost just two road trips in the league though, pushing Quins to
three points and Saracens to 5, so thee 1-12 winning margin is the one place we
go to here, with the 1-5 winning margin market being worthy of interest.
In Ireland, the big provincial derby is a done deal
according to bookmaker who give Munster a handicap start in the mid-teens, presumably
based upon the 110 changes made from their win over Leinster at Ravenhill. Only
Craig Gilroy and Luke Marshall in the backs, and Neil McComb and Robbie Diack
in the forwards, are retained from the team which beat Leinster 27-19 last
Friday night and that, combined with the home advantage for Munster, should see
a only a second defeat of the season inflicted upon Mark Anscombe’s men, but a
handicap in the mid-teens is disrespectful and the home side to win by 1-12
looks the best bet.
The other big province – Leinster – have lost their last
three games in a row, something that’s not happened since May 2010. However
Clermont and Ulster are the best two sides going in Europe right now and a home
fixture against Connacht is the perfect tonic for Joe Schmidt’s men, who have
the luxury of being able to name a side which still has Andrew Goodman, Fionn
Carr, Issac Boss and Heinke van der Merwe despite making 9 changes from the
side that lost to Ulster last Friday night. A home win by more than 13 points
at 8/11 with Ladbrokes looks to be good value. 
Tomorrow, Saracens can keep up their strong recent run of
form with a win over Northampton, who may well be reeling from a comprehensive
defeat to Harlequins at home last week. The 13 point difffence there was the
biggest winning margin between any of England’s ‘top sides’ (Gloucester included)
while Saracens have not beaten any of the other top sides by more than the 10
points they beat Saints at their place. At ‘home’ (this is being played at the
Stadium MK) one would think there’s the potential for that winning margin to be
extended, but a a heavy pitch might keep the margin in the 1-12 zone.
Advice- Aviva Premiership
3 pts Exeter – 2.5 on 2nd half no draw handicap
(4/5 Betfred)
2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (13/8Paddy Power)
1 pt Saracens to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
Advice – Rabo Direct Pro12
2 pts Leinster to win by 13 or more points (8/11 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Ulster to win by 1-12 points (9/4 Stan James)
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