King George Chase 2012

3.10 Kempton

William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £113,900

Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Cue Card (25/1 general, 6^th November 2012)

Ante Post: 1 pt Long Run to win today and Gold Cup (16/1 Paddy Power)

Advice: 1 pt win Grands Crus (8/1 Paddy Power)*

Captain Chris: 2010 Arkle winner who is still capable of reaching that level of form granted right conditions, as he showed when taking advantage of very favourable weight structure to land Amlin 1965 Chase; That proved that he handles the heavy ground well and still has some of ablity which won him Arkle, but 17 lengths behind Long Run last year and more needed; Stamina question.

Champion Court: Behind the very best as novice but held head high in defeat to Sir Des Champs and Siviniaco Conti at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, although big worry that he shaped as if serious non stayer on latter occasion and line through Silviniaco Conti puts him well behind Long Run on all known form; Handles the ground but staying power a worry.

Cue Card: Bumped into some otp nothcers since Champion Bumper win in 2010; Only beaten by RSA and Arkle winners when staying up in 1^st season chasing.  and scoring in convincing style at Newbury (beat For Non Stop with ease at Newbury); Most impressive performance yet when destroying Haldon Gold Cup field at Exeter last time out and big form chance on that basis, for all he’s untested over 3m (pedigree offers hope, so does run style if settling); Would want ground to dry out as much as possible.

For Non Stop: Good novice, although no match for Cue Card or Champion Court when he met them last season; Admittedly vastly improved when running away with Old Roan Chase, for all that cards fell exactly right for him; Weighted to turn around the form with Captain Chris from their Ascot meeting and no problem with soft but others make more appeal.

Grands Crus: Exceptional hurdler who made progress through the novice chasing ranks last year, winning three of four starts impressively, especially when thrashing Silvinaico Conti and eventual RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth in the Feltham at Kempton in a time 2.3 secs quicker than Kauto Star’s King George; Only fourth in RSA but scoped badly afterwards (clearly not the true form) and easy to forgive his Paddy Power flop (travelled very well considering) upon basis of small breathing problem which has since been corrected; If back to his best after that, then massive player here for all that ground is a potential problem.

Junior: Fell in Grand National when set for the big attempt but timely reminder of his better quality when winning Rehearsal Chase in tenacious style on heavy latest at Newcastle, after which he was supplemented for this; That still long way behind what’s required for this level but will handle the ground and trip, which is more than can be said for many others; needs plenty to underperform.

Kauto Stone: Half-brother to 5 time winner Kauto Star and not half bad himself, landing 1^st Grade 1 in good style at Down Royal last month; Runner up not done form any hard with excellent third in Hennessy and should handle the ground with aplomb, so interesting here if able to step up from that effort and god prospects for Paul Nicholls.

Long Run: Not lived upto the promise of his tremendous campaign of two seasons ago, winning just one of 5 races since his 2011 Gold Cup win although he was second only to Kauto Star in this last year and is the best horse out of the Betfair Chase thanks to absence of winner; Feeling that he needs out and out slog to be able to show his best but found tons of improvement from Betfair Chase reappearance last season; Does handle the ground and the one to beat still.

Riverside Theatre:  Confirmed himself top class when second to Long Run in this two years ago, but that was by 12 lengths; Since won three Grade 1’s at 2m4/5f (one on soft) and Aintree run after huge effort at Cheltenham Festival best forgiven, but hard to see how he turns around 12 length deficit even if Long Run’s not the same horse he was then; Ground no worry for him.

The Giant Bolster: As talented as any staying chaser around when it all falls right for him, as shown by Gold Cup second (beat Long Run into third); Good reappearance when third in Betfair Chase but worry that shows him to be far inferior to favourite if both come forward for the run; Big place chance.

VERDICT: A race which is much weakened by not only the heavy ground, but the absence of top class second season chasers in the shape Paul Nicholls’s pair of Al Ferof and Sivliniaco Conti. In the circumstance, the 25/1 we have on Cue Card looks pretty strong, for all that he must settle to get the trip in this ground. Long Run’s best puts him some way clear but he doesn't seem to be the same horse nowdays and it’s very hard to find him as value at just 2/1 for all he came on a ton for his reappearance last year. The 16/1 on him winning this and the Gold Cup would seem to be the only way to go if trying to keep him onside. Riverside Theatre holds claims but has 12 lengths to make up on a peak form favourite, and while Long Run’s evidently not that good anymore he still looks held, and The Giant Bolster too looks safely held on Betfair Chase form, which draws one to Kauto Stone and GRANDS CRUS with the latter having shown the potential to play a big hand as a novice (especially when winning the Feltham last year) although soft ground would be a huge worry considering his flop in the Paddy Power, so stakes might be best kept small.

*Paddy Power offer moneyback if your horse is second to Long Run, which is an extremely tempting offer