Ulster lost their unbeaten record in agonising style against
Northampton last week but they can do yet more damage in the Pro12 title race
in their gigantic clash against Leinster tonight. Ulster have an abysmal recent
record against Leinster - have only won two of the last 20 games between the
sides and even at Ravenhill they have only won once in the last eight meetings –
but they’ve been a totally different outfit this season in winning 13 of their
14 games and look to have one of their highest quality sides for many years
based on their mainly superb performances this season. Even in defeat to
Northampton, they were hardly by far the poorer side, with a late missed kick (which
would have been far easier for Ruan Pienaar had Tommy Bowe not been injured so
badly) costing them victory along with a catalogue of calamity knock ons. In a
game where Ulster made 443 meters to Saints 312, 8 clean breaks to 3 and 16
offloads to 5, while Saints Ben Foden got away with a knock-on in the build-up
to Northampton's try.
The same kind of mistakes will cost them badly against
Leinster but there are reasons to believe that they can be beaten. Two defeats
against Clermont Auvergne (a far stronger team than Northampton) are nothing to
be sniffed that, but Leinster have been shaky on the road in the Pro 12. They
have already lost three times as many road games in the league this season than
they did in the entire campaign last season, and they come here without their
best backline, which gives an Ulster side boasting Payne, Cave, Marshall,
Gilroy, Jackson, and Pienaar in their backline a serious advantage in the
running game. The front row matchup are less one sides on paper - Healy, Cronin
and Bent against Court, Best, and Afoa is sure to be one of the best forward
matchups of the season – but it’s still a battle Ulster could hope to win and
if doing s there, then the match is theirs for the taking. A home win by 1-12
points is the call.
Glasgow Warriors have home advantage in what should be a
tight first game of the 1872 Cup, although Edinburgh’s full strength side
boasts more than enough quality to make it a serious test for them hosts if
able to get the opportunities. The Warriors should have gone to Castres and got
a win in the Heineken Cup though, and make appeal to win by 1-12 points on home
turf is able to put the squeeze on upfront.
In the big Welsh matchup, second placed Scarlets can continue
their terrific away record by beating Cardiff. Beaten twice by Exeter in the Heineken
Cup pool stages to all but end their chances in that completion, Scarlets have
been by far the best Welsh side in the Pro 12 this season and the second best
away side here. Scarlets’s only defeat in their last 5 in the Pro 12 was
against table toppers Ulster last time out and with the strongest Welsh side
going right now, they’re a tempting 13/8 shot to win by 1-12 points.
Clermont, now Heineken Cup joint favourites after beating
champions Leinster back to back in Pool 4, can do the same at Bordeaux Beagules.
An already frightening backline is changed but still has Benson Stanley, Regan King, David Skrela and
Julian Malzieu all in the side, and while the Beagles have a strong home record
as so many French teams do, having pushed Toulouse to 2 points in October. The
11/8 that Les Jaurnads win by 1-12 points looks to be worth taking.
Advice
1 pt Ulster to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
1 pt Scarlets to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)
1 pt Clermont to win by 1-12 points (11/8 Ladbrokes)
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