Glasgow (5/6) v
Castres (evs)
Glasgow get a tight vote in what should be a humdinger of a
game due to home advantage, with Castres in strong form domestically both at
home and on the road (they sit fourth in the Top 14) but also poor on the road,
as they showed last year when failing to take a point from any of their trips
on the road despite being fourth in the Top 14. They should push Glasgow far
closer today, but might just come off second best.
Advice: 1 pt Glasgow to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
Connacht (9/4) v
Biarritz (2/5)
Biarritz need to take maximum points from their double
header against Connacht but will not find the away trip comfortable at all and
despite naming their strongest side, could be limited by a Connacht side that
has proven a stiff task so far in Europe. Connacht typically rely heavily on
their home form but they have lost four of the six games at the Sportsground
this season, but Biarritz are just as bad on the road and look inferior to the Harlequins
side that only won by 8 points here.
Advice: 2 pts Biarritz to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Hills)
Northampton (3/4) v
Ulster (11/8)
The first of many massive double headers between Europe’s top
sides this season with Northampton taking on Ulster in the battle for Pool 4 supremacy.
Home advantage makes Saints favourites but they were beaten heavily here by Munster
last season and Ulster had no problem on the road when beating said rivals in
last season’s quarter final, and this year they’re unbeaten in 12 games –
leading the Pro 12 by an astonishing 9 points – and while some of their performances
have dropped off in recent weeks, they’ve been the strongest side by far during
the Autumn Internationals and can now call upon their full squad, making eight
changes from their 19-12 win against Scarlets in a side so strong that recent
Ireland sensation Craig Gilroy is only on the bench. Northampton too are able
to call upon firepower; England duo Tom Wood and Courtney Lawes returning will
add fire to the battle on the floor, while no-one should need telling about the
Pisi brothers and Ben Foden, but there’s a certain feeling that Ulster will
have enough to make a real statement to Europe and snatch the tightest of wins
here. Anyone backing either side should be going for the 1-12 or 1-5 winning
margins, with a potential dutch of the latter option looking like potential
value given that Northampton’s two defeats to Leicester and Saracens came by 4
and 6 points respectively. Ulster on the
second half handicap getting 2 points also makes appeal considering that they’ve
only outscored teams twice in the final 40 minutes and let in 7/17 league tries
conceded in the final 20 minutes, while Ulster have scored more points than
their opponents in 9/10 second halves.
Advice: 2 pts Ulster +2 on 2nd half handicap
(10/11 Ladbrokes), 1 pt Ulster to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general), 1 pt
Northampton to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
Scarlets (1/2) v
Exeter (9/4)
Scarlets are 0-2 so far but should get their first win on
the board against Exeter, who started so well against Exeter but folded against
an admittedly excellent Clermont at home and have struggled a little in the Premiership
since against quality opposition. Scarlets should have gotten even closer to
Ulster in their last Pro12 game and can now welcome back their internationals Jonathan
Davies, Scott Williams, Liam Williams, Matthew Rees, Rhys Priestland, Aaron
Shingler, Tavis Knoyle, Sione Timani, and Samson Lee. The return of Simon Alcott, Hoani Tui, Damian Welch and Tom
Johnson; whilst behind Gonzalo Camacho and Sireli Naqelevuki should keep Exeter
close enough, but the extra class of the home side (who are second in the Pro
12 only to Ulster) should see them through. Back a home win by 1-12 points.
Advice: 1 pt Scarlets to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Hills)
Toulouse (1/12) v
Ospreys (15/2)
The champions of the
Top 14 and the Pro 12 meet in the first of a double header and Toulouse are
rightfully heavy favourites with the home advantage that has proven so
formidable over the years. The Ospreys are off the pace in 6th in
the Pro 12 and also come here without Alun Wyn Jones, Adam Jones and Aaron
Jarvis, three absences with could prove fatal against a side so known for their
physicality. The home win by 11-20 points seems wise.
Advice: 1 pt Toulouse by 11-20 points (9/4 Skybet)
Zebre (8) v
Harlequins (1/12)
Harlequins should seal their pool win with a convincing pair
of victories over whipping boys Zebre, with the trip to Italy an opportunity to
pick up one of potentially two bonus points. An away win by 11-20 points looks
good value at 9/4.
Advice: 1 pt Harlequins to win by 11-20 points (9/4 Skybet)
Sale (9/2) v Toulon (2/9)
Sale have just two wins to their name so far this season and
have lost their 10 others, making the visitors the only choice. Touloun are
clear of at the top of the Top 14 by 5 points and have named their strongest
side, including Carl Hayman, Andrew Sheridan, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe,
Bakkies Botha, Jonny Wilkinson, Frederic Michalak and Matt Giteau to name just
a few. Sale have lost their games by an average of 14.2 points, while they’ve
lost to the Top 4 of Northampton, Leicester, Harlequins and Saracens by an
average of 13.25 points. Toulon are arguably stronger than any of those sides
mentioned there, making the handicap of 10 points and the 11-20 point winning
margin look like seriously attractive options.
Advice: 2 pts Toulon to win by 11-20 points (23/10 Paddy
Power)
Munster (8/13) v Saracens
(8/5)
Another big highlight of the weekend with Munster and
Saracens going at it for victory in Pool 1 in a game that should be between two
unbeaten sides – but for Conor Murray’s poor decision making and also the
horrendous weather conditions that blighted their opener. Saracens are known
for functionality above all but they’ve been very impressive in going 2-2
against Edinburgh and Racing Metro and a back 5 of Goode, Ashton, Farell,
Barritt, and Strettle is more than good enough to create and finish opportunities
as their opening two games have shown. Munster’s exceptional home record – they’ve
been beaten at home during the Pool stages just once in their last 33 games and
5 of 6 at home in the league this season – should just about seem them through,
with a home win by 1-5 looking like the best value, although dutching the two
also makes good sense.
Advice: 1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general), 1
pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (11/2 general)
Racing Metro (2/7) v Edinburgh
(3)
Lying ninth in the Top 14 and seventh in the Pro12
respectively, this is a tough one to call with neither side giving much
confidence – while Edinburgh have been bad Racing Metro fluked their win over
Munster at home thanks to awful conditions and a poor kicking game from Conor
Murray. Racing Metro have been the better side though and should be able to
reverse last year’s agonizing defeat, albeit but a small margin.
Advice: 1 pt Racing Metro to win by 1-12 (7/4 Hills)
Cardiff (4/7) v
Montpellier (7/4)
Cardiff are probably the most badly hit Welsh side due to
injuries but they can still sneak past Montpellier at the Arms Park. The
Welshmen performed admirably when going down to Toulon when they last seen and
while they mucked up a winning position against Sale, but they showed plenty in
those two games and with home adnvtage are worthy favourites to beat a Montpelier
side that while strong on the road, won just one game last year. The Frenchmen
lost their two road games last year by 3 and 5 points respectively and that
might be the best value once again here.
Advice: 1 pt Cardiff to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
Clermont (2/5) v Leinster
(11/4)
Clermont were
agonisingly beaten 19-15 in the semi-final on home turf but can avenge that
defeat by taking a grip of pool 5 and winning the first leg of their double
header against champions Leinster. Barring a late Biarrtiz try in November
2009, no side has beaten Clermont at the Stade Marcel Michelin since then (including
Leinster) and while the European Champions hold the upper record in this
fixture (5 wins from 6) and have been unbeaten in 17 European games, it was
Clermont who were the last side to beat Leinster and with the improvement they’ve
made over the past year – a dozen tries in two games, albeit with the help of a
red card and sin bin for Scarlets – shows their intent this time around, as
does the fact that they can afford to
make 12 changes to the side that lost 30-22 in Toulouse last weekend, an
impressive feat. Leinster have recovered well from a sticky start to the season
– they now lie third in the Pro12 Table with 4 wins in their last 5 – but come
here without Rob Kearney, Brian O’Driscoll, and Like Fitzgerald – all so crucial
to making the difference last season.
Advice: 2 pts Clermont to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Coral), 1
pt Clermont to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills)
Leicester (1/50) v
Treviso (25)
A double header
against Treviso is just what’s needed for this Leicester side to make up the
ground needed before their final games against Ospreys and at home to Toulouse
and with a side containing Manu Tuilangi, Goerge Ford and Ben Young, along with
a top class pack, they should be well upto destroying Treviso, who lost on the
road to Saracens and Ospreys by 25 and 27 points respectively last season. Take
the 21-30 home winning margin and the hosts to score 37 or more points.
Advice: 1 pt
Leicester to win by 21-30 points (11/4 Paddy Power), 1 pt Leicester to score 37
or more points (5/6 Sportingbet)
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