Congratulations and Bloody well done mate! Bradley Wiggins is getting the credit and adulation he really deserves now but I take no hesitation in heaping it all upon him once again and he processes into Paris this year with the yellow jersey on his back and the honour of being the first British person ever to win the Tour in 99 years of trying, with Chris Froome three minutes behind and Italian Vincenzo Nibali over 6 minutes in arrears.
Today’s stage is a procession into Paris for everyone to have a good time and celebrate the end of the race, before 10 super-fast laps of the capital and a then sprint finish which has a sharp right hander just before the bend.
It really suits the experienced types and proper flat out sprinters, so it’s no surprise to see Mark Cavendish – who has won the tour’s final stage every single time he’s finished the tour – as a hot odds on favourite. Cavendish was expected to become largely anonymous throughough this year’s tour thanks to the duty of helping his Team Sky team mates proved by taking Stage Two in Tournai without any help from his team and then again when taking Stage 18, this time assisted by Wiggins and Bosson Hagen. With both men expected to busy themselves to help him today, the odds on is a fair bet, although he’s too short for us to seriously consider unless properly smashing into him. The hard work of Lotto Belisol has helped Jurgen Van Den Boreck into fourth overall and Andre Greipel, who has won three stages, could be called arguably the best sprinter on this year’s tour. He’s been exceptional weather in or out of the train, and has the turn of speed that flat stages demand, so he should be right there and the 4/1 on him is fair, although it’s hard to see him beating Cavendish unless Lotto get ahead of Sky at the top of the train. Some have suggested that backing him each/way could be a way to prospect for those with better each/way terms, but at 4/1’s he’s too short for us to consider.
The best way to eek out value looks to be to find the third placed man, either each/way (although I do believe that the top two places will be taken by Cavendish and Gripel and Cavendish). The two best sprinters not mentioned are Peter Sagan – who has the yellow jersey in the bag – and Matthew Goss – who has no stage win to his name but would hardly be more deserving of one. Sagan is sure to want another stage win but he has the green jersey in the bag, thrives of a stiff finish, and will be riding the final sprint for the first time. Goss needs things as flat as a pancake, seems adept at hanging onto the wheel and getting into a good position despite not winning a stage, and has been involved in four bunch sprint finishes this year. The 16/1 looks to be a good way to end the tour for value seekers.
A good case can be made for Tyler Farrar – who’s had a rotten Tour for many reasons – given that he made fourth last year behind Greipel and also was third in 2009, so the fact that he was involved at the end of Friday’s stage agurs, well although his team has been decimated by injury. At 50’s he could be worth the risk for some, while Bosson Hagen, who does such a good leadout job and can sprint to a high standard – he’s a winner on the tour before – and was second last year may well foil our plan by placing due to positioning, as Mark Renshaw took second in 2009.
Advice
1 pt each/way Matthew Goss (16/1 Betfred)
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