Less is more.
Racing at the top level has never been more competitive so
the wide range of choices presented at group level can become very tempting.
Taking 2 against the field has often been a strategy used for just handicaps
but in the strongest group races of the week it turned to be a very attractive
– and sometimes incorrect option. Covering a well landed banker in the shape of
So You Think with an unsuccessful each/way saver on Planetur was a good
example, while other choices such as adding Tales Of Grimm and Perennial didn’t
work out so well, which took away from what had been a good meeting, especially
in the 1st few days.
Think Simple.
It’s very easy to approach a race from several different
angles, and then come back to (as said once again later) a race confused about
exactly where to go. Saturday’s Hardwick Stakes saw me do this with Aiken. Initially
a good win bet to supplement my big chances of landing a top trainer/jockey
double with Gosden and Buick (themselves leading at the time), I then decided
that the 4/5 for a place was also well worth advising given that Sea Moon had
the edge on his best form, and then after seeing Dunaden’s last run in the
Grand Prix De Chantilly I suddenly felt – at the time of writing, which
happened to be 11PM the night beforehand -
that he needed including in the
portfolio. Aiken went for home too soon and Dunaden (despite being second best)
got a shocking run around the turn, but neither were good enough in the end.
The main point was that it was one of many races throughought the week where
too much staking had been advised to make a realistic profit unless things went
perfectly, which is never the case at these big meetings.
Always, always hedge.
This was only the second year that I’d done a top jockey and
trainer extract on Royal Ascot (putting up Johnny Murtagh last year being a
damp squib) but it was the best choice I’d made all week. In hindsight John
Gosden and William Buick as a top trainer choice would seem to be the obvious choice,
but at 10/1 each they were fantastic bets (especially each/way) ad they allowed
– from day 2 onwards especially – for the opportunity to have at least 1 horse
running for you in each race from then on, which while providing an added level
off excitement, meant that one or two skinners that would usually annoy you (I’d
looked hard at Joviality and given her a good mention in the verdict for the
Windsor Forest) could actually be good results for you over the week. Having
the favourite ‘covered’ in a race can also be helpful in terms of letting you
look around for other value in a race (a lesson that I hadn’t learned with The
Fugue and Fame and Glory), not to mention the brilliant feeling that you get
when three winners you didn’t tip are all amongst the best results of the week
for you! It can’t work out that well every time of course, but it’s a wise move
to have onside over the course of a meeting and well worth the extra effort of
looking ahead in advance. If only I’d had this frame of mind with the Hardwicke
(Sea Moon, as said below, was staring me in the face)
If you look at a race for long enough and you still can't
find one, you won't win
Friday’s races – The Queen’s Vase and Albany, given that I
wasn’t keen on tipping Newfangled in such a big field and then Sandreamer being
declared a non-runner – were real headscratchers and it was only about after 2
hours of analysis that I came up with The Gold Cheongsam and Tassel as decent
small each/way bets, while Yazdi and Perennial (both a point each/way) were not
my idea of super strong chances in the Vase. It’s really just best to leave it
sometimes.
Play races by the horse, and not the trainer or jockey’s “form”
at the time of writing
In the leadup to the week, much attention had centred upon
the disappointing season – by his high standards – that Sir Michael Stoute was
having, while Godolphin had been behind the pace in the UK for a long part of
this season, suffering a disappointing Guineas weekend and then going from back
to worse. It’s easy to believe that this will carry on through a week but I made
the serious mistake of not looking specially at the top horses from each stable’s
form (Stoute’s two winners in Sea Moon and Estimate had both won on their
seasonal debuts) and I can’t help but feel that I ignored a really obvious
winner in Sea Moon (which would have gone someway to covering the blow of Moore
being top jockey) while in hindsight Suroor’s runners needed a lot more looking
at, even if he only had the two winners during the week,
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