Tour De France - Stage 16 [Pau - Bagnères-de-Luchon]

The Tour De France moved another step towards a proper conclusion yesterday with the Peloton taking it easy for the second day in a row following the sprint finish on Sunday, allowing the breakway group - Pierrick Fedrigo (FDJ), Christian Vande Velde (Garmin), Thomas Voeckler (Europcar), Dries Devenyns (Quick Step) and Samuel Dumoulin (Cofidis) and Nicki Sorensen Saxobank) -  to gain a lead of 11 minutes on the pack (presumably resting for the Prynees this week), who carried all the GC contenders safely home.  In the end the group of 6 split in to three pairs, with Pierrick Fedrigo eventually easily outsprinting Vandervelde, while Vockler, Devenyns, Sorensen and Dumoulin were all left behind, showing the virtues of kicking with the leaders when bunch sprinting. Annoyingly for those who had backed him into favouritism, Griepel was seventh in the best of the rest sprint, beating Farrar and Sagan, which inclines one to think that he could have won the stage had the Peloton not allowed them to get away.

Moving on, and after yesterday’s rest day we move onto the home straight of the tour, with the last two big chances to attack Wiggins coming in consecutive days as the race enters the Pyrenees, with tomorrow offering the biggest test that the tour can provide with four climbs, two being hors category and two being category one climbs – so the wheat is sure to get sorted from the chaff here. Keeping in mind the perilous descent before the downhill finish in Bagneres-de-Luchon, it’s no surprise to see expert descender Vincenzo Nibali – who has looked very strong on the tour for all that he’s 2.23 behind Wiggins in the general classification – as a strong favourite, with the Italian sure to have it set in his mind that he has one or two chances to attack Wiggins left, taking in mind that Saturday brings yet another time trial during which he is expected to put at last a minute between himself and the rest of the pack, and the way he put 53 seconds between him and Wiggins earlier on during Stage 10. He was reeled in coming upto the Col De Richmond by Team Sky, but today’s finish is even more downhill and he’s clearly been saving himself just as much as the Londoner and race leader has, so he has to be rated a worthy favourite with the possibility that Peter Sagan and Ivan Basso could team up to help him. He makes a lot of appeal on a stage that should suit and he may well be worth backing, but 9/2 seems short at this stage and it’s hoped his price drifts beforehand, and then he might well be worth backing for either the win or a top 3 finish, which he’s currently evens for.

Cadel Evans – another noted descender – is second favourite and needs looking at, for all that he’s not had an ideal tour so far, having lost time to Wiggins not only as expected in the time trials but also almost 90 seconds on Stage 11 – although he’s looked weak at times during the climbs this year, and this, the most testing of all the stages on the tour so far, might take the energy out of him going up to take the fight to Wiggins and his team going downhill.

Jurgen Van Den Broeck (left) was the only main contender to take any time out of Wiggins on Stage 10 – one of the best recent guides to this affair – has launched meaningful attacks already while staying with the main jersey group, and has been one of the strongest climbers in the tour so far, so it’s not hard to see him contending for the stage win and also bidding to try and stage a fight for the podium (Sky may well see him as far behind enough not to move instantly to cover an attack from Lotto) and with his descending skills adequate enough for this finish, he’s got to be taken seriously at 9/1 each/way.

Given the threat that Nibali has going down the descent, it’s likely that Sky will be bcalled into action, which automatically brings the race leader pairing of Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins into the equation. We all know both have the capacity to win stages, and with Porte, Cavendish and Knees sure to set the pace before the chase goes on in the latter stages, the two are interesting, Froome more so than Wiggins as he looks to be the better climber of the two, but it’s been confirmed that they’ll be a tandem act from now on so in running might be the way to play either of them, while the uphill finish tomorrow could see them both shine.  After the unfortunately attack on Sunday I’m not sure how popular Pierre Rolland would be even if he was to win but with King Of The Mountain point to fight for he has to be considered strongly even if as short as 10’s – He would also be likely to get into a breakway at some point if instigated, and the Tour lends itself to repeat stage winners.

Looking for real big priced winners, it helps to go back in history to previous stages with several similarities that have been used in past renewals. Around this day in 2008, Juan Jose Cobo finished second in giving his team – Sanier Duval - their third stage win over a route which had 2 Hors Categorie Climbs and was run at a furious pace with the riders of the leading team – then CSC – burning off the Peloton to chase down a breakway before the elite formed through (to set an example, Jens Voigt and Fabian Cancellara were leading the effort). He beat none other than Badley Wiggins and Chris Froome to last year’s Vuleta – where there were 9 of the 21 stages ranked as mountain stages – while also ranked as a domestique for his then team leader Denis Menchov, much like he is for Movistar leader Alejandro Valverde now. At 33/1, he looks too big to take a hand at the finish. 

The last of our three that makes significant appeal is Italian Michele Scarponi (below left), who hadn’t done much in this tour before taking second place behind Vockler on Stage 10, where he lamented the fact that he focused on Luis Leon Sanchez instead of Vockler before closing the gap to 3 seconds on the line. With that day having confirmed his ability to handle big climbs and steep dents, as well as getting into the breakway of the day, he can’t be left out at 33/1.

 

Frank Schleck has been seen out and about for want of a better word, but he’s not in the same form of years past and I’d want to see him in a break before getting involved, while  Rui Costa of Movistar might be one to keep your eye on from an initial price of 61 on Betfair.

Advice

1 pt each/way Jurgen Van Den Brocek (9/1 Skybet)

1 pt each/way Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (33/1 Betfed)

1 pt each/way Michele Scarponi (33/1 Skybet)

-       UPDATE – Another day, and yet another breakaway with none of our men in it which you can’t count as being reeled in by the Peloton given that no one presents a threat and the gap’s already 4 minutes. Dan Martin (Garmin-Sharp), Yukiya Arashiro (Europcar), Thomas Voeckler (Europcar), Steve Cummings (BMC Racing), George Hincapie (BMC Racing), Jaroslav Popovych (RadioShack-Nissan), Jens Voigt (RadioShack-Nissan), Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana), Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana), Rein Taaramae (Cofidis, Le Crédit en Ligne), Samuel Dumoulin (Cofidis, Le Crédit en Ligne), Sergio Paulinho (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank), Chris Anker Sorensen (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff Bank), Matthieu Sprick (Argos-Shimano), Jorge Azanza (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Gorka Izagirre (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Egoi Martínez (Euskaltel-Euskadi), Danilo Hondo (Lampre-ISD), Marco Marzano (Lampre-ISD), Simone Stortoni (Lampre-ISD), Maxime Bouet (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Sébastien Minard (Ag2r-La Mondiale), Brice Feillu (Saur-Sojasun), Guillaume Levarlet (Saur-Sojasun), Jean-Marc Marino (Saur-Sojasun), Johnny Hoogerland (Vacansoleil-DCM), Rafael Valls (Vacansoleil-DCM), Giampaolo Caruso (Katusha), Yury Trofimov (Katusha), Eduard Vorganov (Katusha), Pierrick Fédrigo (FDJ-BigMat), Sandy Casar (FDJ-BigMat), Matthieu Ladagnous (FDJ-BigMat), Steven Kruijswijk (Rabobank), Laurens Ten Dam (Rabobank), Vasil Kiryienka (Movistar), Vladimir Karpets (Movistar) and Rui Costa (Movistar) are the men in the break, and Martinez and Costa are two that make the most appeal.

Advice

1 pt each/way Egoi Martinez (40/1 Bet Vcitor)

1 pt each/way Rui Costa (10/1 general)