July Cup 2012

3.20 Newmarket

Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £256,320

Advice: No bet (but consider Ortensia in running) 

Dandy Boy: Had lost way after Meydan win in early 2011 but roaring back to best win decisive and clear cut win in the Wokingham at Ascot, that win coming in a time which was significantly faster than Black Caviar’s Golden Jubilee win; This requires more of him but foolish to rule our and does have the one soft ground win of his back in 2009.

Genki: Sixth in this race by just three lengths last year and then ran creditably for rest of last season but taken his time to come to hand this time around and near last in Golden Jubilee; Others make more appeal.

Hawkeyethenoo: Back to his best (had been running in and out of form although with varying circumstances) when third in Wokingham and deserves respect on the back of that but now 4lbs worse off and ground might not be in his favour.

Krypton Factor: Progressed into one of best sprinters around at this distance in AW earlier this year, beating international field impressively when winning Golden Shaeen; Not been at best on turf since although would want to forgive his poor run in Singapore (poorly drawn) and Diamond Jubilee effort creditable from wide; Worry that he can’t seem to get a blow in and wants top of the ground but interested.

Mayson: Been extremely progressive this season, winning over 6f and 5f in Listed and Group 3, the latter a well contested event for the grade; Had two excuses for poor defeats since  (very upset in the stalls and heavy ground no use to him) but others preffered.

Sepoy: Champion 3yo sprinter in Australia who came up just short in bid for seven timer in Oakleigh Plate, when conceding topweight to all and trying to run finish out of them from the front; Had previously won four Group 1’s on the bounce, including one on soft, and while he disappointed in UAE and has been off since then, can’t help but feel at his best he’s more than capable of winning this and has to be seriously respected with yard on form of late and at this track.

Sirius Prospect: Had failed to build upon rapid progress last season in four runs so far this year but Ascot seventh a step up on his first three efforts; Handles the soft ground and of interest here but others make more appeal.

Society Rock: Known as an Ascot specialist and did nothing to change those thoughts when running a scramer in Diamond Jubilee, ending up fifth having fluffed the ace at the start; Might well have won had he not had that mishap and has to be hugely respected on that, being a sprinter who has a Group 1 win on soft, but worry that he’s not shown his best away from Ascot, having run poorly after his Golden Jubilee effort in 2010 in this race; One of the main players.

Strong Suit: Made into an excellent colt at 7f last year, winning Jersey, Lennox, and Challenge Stakes with more than something in hand; Not at best over a mile on last two starts but draw filled his chances in Breeders Cup Mile and never anywhere near fit enough for Queen Anne Stakes; This will suit him far more and was second on soft in Middle at as 2yo, but wants it better than this.

The Cheka: Found form of old when dropped in trip this season and York Group 2 second is a career best for him (Society Rock was having his seasonal debut and got blocked for a run) he disappointed in Diamond Jubilee and others make far more appeal.

Ortensia: : Top class Australian mare who ended winless streak of almost a year after moving to current yard when running out an impressive winner of Listed race and then following up in Burswood Winterbottom Stakes; Made it a hat trick in the most impressive style when landing Al Quoz Sprint, beating Sole Power in a style that suggests she’s at least as good as Bated Breath (had to come from behind and widest of all); Disappointed when only ninth in King’s Stand but said to have become agitated beforehand and in any case, this is a much weaker race; Big chance even with the ground being a problem (won on soft once before but clearly does not want it that way).

Reply: Third on reappearance in Irish 2,000 Guineas a truly excellent effort but that form not worked out and lifeless effort in admittedly strong Jersey suggests he’s not in the same class as his yard’s other winners of this race.

Fire Lily: Tuned into a top sprinter this year after consistent Group 1 efforts at 2 (twice second at that level last year); Showed good form this season and Group 3 win (first of year) long overdue so has to be given a chance.

VERDICT: A tricky renewal of the July Cup with the ground having gone to soft, heavy in places just to muddy the waters, and the lower drawn numbers doing well earlier in the week, suggesting the stands rail is the place to be. Society Rock has run poorly after posting some excellent efforts at Ascot, which takes some of the appeal away from him although his chance has to be respected too. If on his best form, they’ll all have to go some to catch SEPOY, who was Australia’s Champion sprinter last year, has a Group 1 win on soft for a yard that has already had two winners at this meeting so far (and one that’s in form and does well traditionally), and can be given a massive chance on his best form. Sadly the value's gone from his price following his selection by Pricewise, but he should have a first rate chance.  The softer ground is a massive negative for ORTENSIA, but I can’t help but think that she’s one of the best in this field and a line through Sole Power on her Al Quoz Sprint form has her at least equal with Bated Breath, and she does have some heavy ground form in the past. While not quite recommended as a bet, she’s one to keep in mind or in running if she travels well and it looks like she’s handling this ground. Of the outsiders, Fire Lily and The Cheka make most appeal, with Dandy Boy one of those who would make more appeal on faster ground.