For the first time in a decade, The Open Championship returns
to Royal Lytham St. Anne's in what’s sure to be one of the highlights of the
golfing season, with thrills and spills aplenty on the way given the typical
British Summer we’ve had and the fact that any course form here is largely
obsolete bring one case (as I will show will show you later), and that makes up
for a wide open tournament.
Royal Lytham is a supremely testing course and the challenge
has been heightened since 2001. The layout has been lengthened by 181 yards and
the par reduced from 71 to 70 - the sixth has been changed from a par-5 to a
par-4. The weather means the test will be even more severe. Rain has made the
course lush, green and soft and the ball is not running out as much as usual as
expected on a links course for many tournaments, while the rough has grown up, moving
even favourite Tiger Woods to call it “almost unplayable” amongst several other
complaints.
Tiger Woods once again heads the betting with many of the
opinion that he’s recovered back to his best following on from the troubled
period he’s had for two or three years. Three titles in eight events (two in
his last four) would be regarded as extremely strong form for any player, and
he’s deserving of his favouritism at his best, but the complaint I made about
him before the Masters still rings true; I can’t have anyone as short as 9/1
for an event like this, a price which assumes he’s at his best and clear of
everyone in the field, while there are other doubts too installed into that
price.
Firstly, the fact that he’s not won a major in 12 attempts –
and secondly his inconsistency when the going gets tough, having missed the cut
at the Greenbrier Classic (worrying noted his excellent form going for a follow
up after PGA Tour wins, along with the fact it was the the hardest recent PGS
tournament he’d have ), while his capitulation during the latter rounds of the
US Open, where he finished 75-73 after trading as short as 2.68 on Betfair
before the third round along with his Masters disappointment, cast the major
doubts once again.
Add the fact that Woods finished 22nd and 25th on his last
two visits to Royal Lytham & St Annes, and he is well opposable at any
price, let alone leading the field at a price which is only going to get bigger
in the run up to the start of the event – Ladbrokes will lay you 10/1 and I’d
expect others to push the boat right out in the run up to the event.
Next best is Lee Westwood and to be honest he seems like a
much more likely challenger at double the price. He’s yet to win a major but
he’s only once finished worse than 16th over the past three years
and has registered an astonishing 7 top 3 finishes in that time, especially
considering the knockers of his short game – and there are many – while he also
has nine top 5 finishes in major events, which is a huge reassurance given that
many are paying seven each/way (1/4 he odds) and the top 10’s and 20’s markets
make obvious appeal.
In contention for the US Open before losing a ball up a tree
early in the last round – he tied for 10th that day – he’s overcome
a slight injury scare to get here and with his game suited towards this course
(he excels from tee to green before usually finding the problem later on) and
if anything he’s a far more appealing bet than Woods even if the win is beyond
him, with 4/5 on him making the top 20 also worthy of major attention, perhaps more
so than the each/way bet at 14’s which is losing its appeal in light of strong
support.
So what of finding the winner? Fourteen of the last 15 major
winners have been breaking their duck, in a remarkable trend that has started
and not stopped since Phil Mickleson won the 2010 Masters. These were also –
despite their relatively unknown status – proven top golfers who had won events
on their tour that season or at the very least in the recent past, while also
proving they could handle the demands of that given event too.
Step forward Rickie Fowler (left), who produced arguably the round
of the tournament two years ago when shooting lower than anyone in the field
over the final 54 holes, ending up tied for 14th on his debut. What
was even more impressive was his huge effort in 2011, where he lifted himself
from tied 19th to tied third in the final standings after shooting a
two-under 68. An excellent maiden title
win on the PGA Tour for the first time in May at Quail Hollow – followed up
with a second placed finish in the Players’ Championship - is a brilliant prep for
this, while previous experience of fierce links competition – the Walker and
Ryder Cups in 2007 and 2010 – suggests that he will handle the course better
than most, so he make obvious appeal despite third being just his third Open
start. Take the 35/1 with Paddy Power (who will go seven placed at ¼ the odds)
while Ldbrokes ate a standout 40/1.
Another from the same category is Adam Scott, who has played
in 13 Opens and holds 18 Worldwide titles under his belt despite being just 32,
making seven of his last eight cuts, and finishing 27th and 25th
in the last two renewals. He’ll need to step up on that in quite a way to
threaten seriously here, but an eight in the Masters and 15th in the
US Open suggest that he’s in a run of form which can see him contend, and while
he’s rarely got into proper contention at the Open Championship, his two solid
efforts this year give serious encouragement that he’ll be man enough to get
into contention and plenty of players have produced career best links
performances on the links to win their maiden titles, so at a general 40/1 he
looks worth adding to the portfolio – while the 8/1 on him in the “Rest of the
World” category looks to be a very solid shout as a top 20 finish would sure
see him there or thereabouts.
With that progressive pair onside, it’s time to look for
some solidity to back up the first timers and there looks to be no reason not
to have the last non maiden major winner onside at 33/1. Phil Mickleson (left) has
often failed at the Open but was an excellent second last year behind Darren
Clarke proving that he does have the tools for poor weather golf after all,
with his Open form reading /48/-/19/mc in the four years before that –
explaining a record with had seen him make the top 10 just twice in 18 starts.
What makes last year even more impressive was the fact he’s arrived after poor
efforts in that year’s Masters (T27th) and US Open (T54th), so it was a huge surprise
to see him move into a tie for the lead only to lose it at the 11th
hole of last year with a missed two footer.
Some have written him off but objectivity is needed when
looking at his form. There is an easy argument to make for thinking that he
should have won the Masters, where he recovered from an Opening round of 74 to
end just one behind the lead on Saturday night and tie for third despite
scoring a triple bogey at the start of the fourth round. Barring that exceptional
win at Bay Hill – where he beat Tiger Woods by 11 shots – and a lost playoff at
the Northern Trust Open, he’s been besieged by problems but his Scottish Open
sixteenth hinted at a lot more to come and it showed his comfort with the conditions
that he’s going to have to handle this week. Yes, he started badly, and yes, he
faded late with a 74 on Sunday, but his charge to 14 under with a third-round
65 to add to Friday's 64 gives a serious sign that he’s capable of reaching top
form, and the fact that was his first finish under par in seven rounds since
the HP Championship may well see a turning of the corner for him in the same way
that his -6 under as the Phoenix Open saw him move onto that exceptional
performance at Bay Hill. I cannot leave 33/1 alone, and neither can I leave the
11/1 on him being Top American either.
Speaking of top class experienced players,2002 winner Ernie
Els has come to my attention after a ninth place finish in the US Open and
several good mentions from . He’s seen as one of the veterans of the game – and
rightly so – but with that comes a world of experience and his form around this
course - second and third in 1996 and 2001 – while he has 12 top 10 finishes around
this course. Stats like that are the sorts that favourites possess but two
missed cuts in the last two years might have put some off, there are real signs
of a revival this year , and not just his last time out finish at the Olympic
Club. A second at New Oreland in the Zurich Classic and a fourth at Bay Hill in
the Arnold Palmer show he’s got the talent to contend and while he was down the
field in the Scottish Open, that was surely a sightseer and there’s a lot to
like about his chances this week here if ready from the get go, while the 4/1
about him being top South Africa also makes appeal, despite the stern opposition
Oosthuizen and Schawartzel will provide.
Sergio Garcia’s got nothing like the experience in winning
majors that our above mentioned pair have but he’s one of large section of
extremely talented golfers who have always threatened to romp with a Major –
the type that has won the last 14 majors – and while there’s a worry that he’s
become a serial bottler, his solid playing style and exceptional ability could
see him contend, if not actually win the event. He has three top 7 finishes
this century in the Open – his 5 year record reads 9/14/38/51/2 - and it’s only
at the end of the last year that he posted the biggest winning margin in
European Tour History. He was hardly in peak form last year but seven top 20
finishes and no missed cuts this year suggests that he can launch a challenge
and with this being a specialists event in every way, he makes strong appeal at
least in the place markets, while he can contend for Top European and Top
Contential European.
And last but not least, let’s add a pair of standout
outsiders. Those who have read the two Vic Page Golf previews, or these who know
me well on Twitter, will not be lost on my love for Big Bo “More important than
my education” Van Pelt (left) and one of the biggest surprises of the week was to see
him at 100/1. One of our headline tips in the masters – second only to
Mickleson – he looked totally out of it approaching the weekend (shot 73 and
two 75s in the first three rounds) but he came from nowhere in posting a 64 in
the last round at Augusta, tying the best-ever score on a Sunday at the Masters
and falling a stroke shy of the all-time single-round record in an insane show
of talent.
He’s since been up and down but we’ve seen big flashes of
talent, including a brave and bold show of courage to push none other than Tiger
Woods all the way to the line, matching Woods for the 1st 15 holes
of the tournament, before missing the crucial chance to put Woods again under
pressure at the 16th. He ended up just 2 shots behind but that show
of talent has only reaffirmed my belief that if holding his nerve, he can
contend for a major and the superb driving and tee to green game that he possesses
is exactly what’s needed to succeed here. Figures of 30/52/MC/44/57 won’t
inspire but he’s in the best form of his life and can’t be ignored now.
And last but not least, Ben Curtis deserves adding to the
roster at a similarly big price. Known for ripping up the formbook by winning
this on his 1st start in majors, while he dropped a hint that he
might be back to his best when ending a a six-year win drought by capturing the
Texas Open, and he showed that to be no one off when making it to joint runner
up in the Players Championship at Sawgrass two starts later, and his place on
the top 5 in the US Money List is backed up by some seriously impressive stats –
he’ s third in Driving Accuracy and sixth in Greens In Regulation, while he's
also third in Strokes Gained – Putting. A solid open record - was also tied
eighth at Carnoustie in 2007 while a year later he was tied seventh at Royal
Birkdale – only serves to highlight the value in his price.
And if you need one that would really blast everyone else
out of the water, then Frenchman Rapahel Jacquelin, sure to be boosted by
contending for the French Open earlier this month (ended third), warmed up with
a good sixteenth in the Scottish Open last time, although his 21st
in the US Open serves noticed that he’s coping with the elite better than ever
this year. Jacquelin was 13th here back in 2001, so has course form
is in the bag, and produced a career best when eight here last year. Why not?
What of the others? Luke Donald has the talent, the game and
the consistency - but has a worrying trend of falling too far back to make an
impact on the Sunday. He hasn’t broken 70 in an opening round since 2005, seven
of his last ten major starts have seen him finish outside the top 30, and while
he was fifth in 2009 and 11th in 2010, he missed the cut last year,
so others (Westwood) make more appeal.
McIlroy has the talent to win in this – that along is not in
doubt – and he does have links experience – but his record in the last 5 Opens
reads 25/3/47/-/42, he’s missed four of his last 6 cuts and it’s a worry that
driving accuracy has been given as the main problem for that around St Lytham.
Justin Rose’s poor record here (44/mc/13/70/12) – apart from when storming onto
the scene as a teen 14 years ago – is once again the big putoff, as he’s just
an excellent golfer in general, but we have plenty of others onside. Martin
Kaymer was once the prodigy of the golfing world but has fallen badly out of
that form over the last 2 years, Graeme McDowell’s in great form and has a
great links record but a shocking open one, Franceso Monlinari is in the form
of his life right now and was brilliant in Scotland but has missed 3 out of
four cuts, despite that one time he made the cut reaping a thirteenth place,
and much the same is true of Hunter Mahan, who was sixth in the 2007 Open and
has missed 3 cuts since.
Padraig Harrington – the leading tip in the portfolio of RP
Sport’s Steve Palmer- is a worthy challenger with six top-20s from his last
seven starts, while Ian Poutler has only made two top 20’s here, albeit one of
their being his second place in 2008 behind Harrington. Louis Oosthuizen’s
incredible 2010 win means he deserves attention here and the Albatross at the
Masters has to be one of the sporting highlights of the year, although he’s
only made three cuts from his last 7 since winning the Malaysian Open. Jim Fuyrk
makes far more appeal than most given thae he has six top 12 finishes and four
top 5’s, so the best way to keep him onside might be to back him for Top
American at a big looking 14/1. Masters winner Bubba Watson has got to keep it
straight with 200 bunkers, and Thomas Bjorn might be a springer given his
record, although how he lost the 2003 renewal in a bunker is a big worry, Retief
Goosen’s record interests here, although of the South Africans we like Els more
and will stick with him, using Goosen as a backup.
Advice – Outright
1 pt each/way Rickie Fowler (40/1 Ladbrokes, 35/1 Paddy
Power)
1 pt each/way Adam Scott (40/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Phil Mickleson (28/1 Paddy Power, 40/1 Bwin)
1 pt each/way Ernie Els (40/1 Paddy Power, 45/1 general)
1 pt each/way Sergio Garcia (40/1 Bet Victor, 33/1 Paddy
Power)
1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (100/1 general, 90/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Ben Curtis (100/1 general, 90/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Rapahel Jacquelin (125/1 general)
Advice – Place only bets
4 pts Lee Westwood Top 20 finish (4/5 Paddy Power)
2 pts Sergio Garcia Top 20 (11/8 general)
Advice – Top American
1 pt each/way Rickie Fowler (10/1 general)
1 pt each/way Phil Mickleson (11/1 Sportingbet)
1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt (28/1 general)
1 pt each/way Ben Curtis (28/1 general)
Advice – Top European
1 pt each/way Lee Westwood (7/1 general)
1 pt each/way Segio Garcia (16/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Rapahel Jacquelin (50/1 general)
Advice – Top Continental European
2 pts Sergio Garcia (6/1 Sportingbet)
Advice – Top South African
2 pts Ernie Els (4/1 Bet Victor)
1 pt Retief Goosen (10/1 Blue Sq)
Advice – Top Rest Of The World
1 pt each/way Adam Scott (8/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Ernie Els (8/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt each/way Retief Goosen (18/1 Paddy Power)
No comments:
Post a Comment