1.20 Newmarket
Rewarded: Proven rapidly progressive on all types of ground
this season, being unlucky in attempt for four wins on the bounce when fourth
in strong looking renewal of London Gold Cup; Then third at Royal Ascot when
being blocked for a clear run until too late, but did look as if this sort of
trip would suit and has to be respected here today.
Shantaram: Laboured to win here over 1m4f last time but had
previously run Model Pupil and Main Sequence to a nose and a half lengths, form
that clearly makes him the one to beat here; Excellent chance based on that,
trainer and jockey combination are on fire and trip expected to be no problem,
so the main worry here is on the ground turning against him (currently good to
soft at time of writing).
Valiant: Two starts and two wins over 10 furlongs on good to
soft ground but already looks like a future stayer in the making after hard
drive got him home at York in handicap latest; This a step up on that but
should come into his own at this trip (which will hopefully allow him to idle a
bit unless the pace is farcically slow) and has to be respected.
Yazdi: Vastly improved for the experience when Bolting up at
Thirsk, having done best of newcomers when third behind Model Pupil and
Shantaram in Newmarket maiden; Dissapointed in Queens Vase though and while
this drop in trip is sure to help him, he never looked like winning at Ascot.
Good Morning Star: 50/1 winner of Cheshire Oaks in spring
but done nothing since and opposable.
Naseem Alayasmeen: Been progressive at a handicap level and
won easily at Chester when last seen, his third handicap win of the year; This
a big step up on that though and seems to be much the better for faster surface
underfoot, so others get the call today.
Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £31,190
Advice: 1 pt win Valiant (2/1 general)
Rewarded: Proven rapidly progressive on all types of ground
this season, being unlucky in attempt for four wins on the bounce when fourth
in strong looking renewal of London Gold Cup; Then third at Royal Ascot when
being blocked for a clear run until too late, but did look as if this sort of
trip would suit and has to be respected here today. Shantaram: Laboured to win here over 1m4f last time but had
previously run Model Pupil and Main Sequence to a nose and a half lengths, form
that clearly makes him the one to beat here; Excellent chance based on that,
trainer and jockey combination are on fire and trip expected to be no problem,
so the main worry here is on the ground turning against him (currently good to
soft at time of writing). Valiant: Two starts and two wins over 10 furlongs on good to
soft ground but already looks like a future stayer in the making after hard
drive got him home at York in handicap latest; This a step up on that but
should come into his own at this trip (which will hopefully allow him to idle a
bit unless the pace is farcically slow) and has to be respected. Yazdi: Vastly improved for the experience when Bolting up at
Thirsk, having done best of newcomers when third behind Model Pupil and
Shantaram in Newmarket maiden; Dissapointed in Queens Vase though and while
this drop in trip is sure to help him, he never looked like winning at Ascot. Good Morning Star: 50/1 winner of Cheshire Oaks in spring
but done nothing since and opposable. Naseem Alayasmeen: Been progressive at a handicap level and
won easily at Chester when last seen, his third handicap win of the year; This
a big step up on that though and seems to be much the better for faster surface
underfoot, so others get the call today.
VERDICT: One of the biggest and best meetings of the year,
with the ground looking likely to ride with at least a fair bit of cut in it.
Shantaram comes from the most inform trainer/jockey combination in the country
and is the best horse in the race based on his first two starts this season,
although one would have slight doubts about him on softer ground given how
laboured he was at Newmarket (ground soft), and those looking to back him
should wait until as close as possible given that the forecast is for ground to
ride with a good amount of cut in it. VALIANT and Rewarded are rivals that can
push him if he’d below his best, with the William Haggas runner having cried
out for a step up in trip on his first two successful starts over 10 furlongs
on the very ground we will get tomorrow. He’s needed excellent rides to win on
both starts (including a Ryan Moore special at York) but as said previously,
this longer trip will help and he may well be one to watch in running given his
style (he was matched at 48.0 in running at York). Similar comments apply to Rewarded,
who should also be there at the finish, while Yazdi has a lot to prove after a
poor showing at Ascot even Ii it can be attributed towards a trip that was
longer than he wanted.
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