British Grand Prix Preview 2012

This year’s F1 season has been noted for how competitive it’s been but in Valencia last week there was only one man to catch during qualifying and the race andSebastian Vettel can count himself sincerely unlucky not to have become the first man to win more than one Grands Prix at Valencia two weeks ago, and he looks to have a first rate chance of winning at Silverstone for the second time this weekend.

There had been little to separate most of the top teams throughought most of this season but Red Ball (after a slow start) have slowly emerged as the team to beat (they’ve taken the last 3 poles and 5 this season), and a major aerodynamic upgrade took them clear of the pack in impressive fashion last week, seeing him go 2^nd and 1^st in Friday’s practice, taking the pole position by 0.324 seconds before lapping about a second a lap faster than anyone else throughout the race. He had a lead of 20 seconds before a safety car took that advantage down, but he was still infront and going very well until Alternator Control saw him drop out. It was a horribly unfair end to a great week but the raw pace he showed there has to put him right up there as the one to beat, with Silvertone’s circuit one that works very well for Red Bull based on recent evidence (two out of the last three wins here and three out of four poles for Vettel).

There’s a worry about a horrendous forecast – there’s a 70% chance of rain and Vettel has never had the best of records in the wet, while the hotter the track conditions, the better the Red Bull usually is – but with the practice sessions likely to be very wet he should be getting his eye in early this weekend and anyone who wants to reconsider will have plenty of time to change their minds after practice 1 and 2. If all goes to plan, 3/1 is an outstanding bet for the World Champion. With Vettel having taken 3 poles this season, the 12/1 on a Win/Pole/Fastest Lap treble also makes appeal, that having been a treble he completed in 2009.

According to the market, Red Bull’s main threat is seen to be Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso, but on pace this season Romain Grosjean has been the second fastest car without success and the 12/1 offered on him, along with the 7/2 on him taking yet another podium, seems to be real value based on his excellent efforts this season. A formguide of his completed starts reads 6-3-4-2 and it’s really hard to think that he wouldn’t have made the podium in Valencia last weekend but for tyre failure. He’s made the top 6 on all his starts this season and the 4/6 on that pre event is very tempting too, although I’ll stick my neck out and say podium given his recent pace. Rain is a worry for his chance as well but we’ll get time to see him in the wet tomorrow if the conditions are as expected.

Next is Pastor Maldonado, the perennial underachiever who’s gotten the best out of Williams on each race this season only to blow it late on with the exception of the Spanish Grand Prix. His drive in Valencia to all but make second place – I am certain that he would have passed Lewis Hamilton had he held his nerve – was all the more impressive given how outpaced the Williams actually was, but it emphasizes the point that it’s a car that sticks around until the finish and Maldonado is capable of making large amounts of ground in mid race and fighting at the finish. He’s one on the shortlist and the 4/6 on him making the points had it’s appeal, so much do I respect him, but the value might not be there this weekend.

Should the race actually turn into a rain sodden affair, then there would be 4 drivers that need serious attention in Malaysian Grand Prix 1-2 Fernando Alonso andSergio Perez, alongside the home

duo of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button. Alonso is not only a master of driving the safe race, but he’s getting everything out of the Ferrari at the moment (which in itself has improved a lot since the opening weekend), excelled with his tactical changes in Malaysia’s downpours, has a good record around this track, and is driving three times better on raceday than in qualifying. The 11/2 for him to win would be tempting if we knew we were getting rain and it’s got legs in the dry as well, but there could be tons more value on him in running or after qualifying, as he’s done so well from an uncomprising starting position this year.

Perez himself chased down Alonso at a rapid rate in Malyasia in both wet and dry conditions – it’s worth noting that he may have won had Alonso not switched to dry-weather slick tyres a lap before Perez, or if he hadn’t got on to the kerb at Turn 14 and ran wide - and his chance has already been highlighted by Betting Zone’s Tom Millard, but he still offers obvious value. The 12/1 for a podium finish is big, and the 5/6 on a points finish could be the way to go.

Mark Webber also interests as a value proposition, as he’s been around Vettel for most of the season and one can’t ail to be impressed by his rise to fourth from 19th on the grid there, and in dry conditions he would be more of a value proposition for the podium or indeed the pole position.

Advice – Assuming a dry forecast for raceday

7 pts Sebastian Vettel (3/1 general)

2 pts Romain Grosjean Podium finish (7/2 general)

1 pt Vettel Pole/Win/Fastest lap treble (12/1 Paddy Power)

Advice – In wet

1 pt Fernando Alonso (11/2 general)

1 pt Sergio Perez Podium Finish (12/1 Bet365)