Over half the Tour De France has gone and it’s still the same situation – Bradley Wiggins (above) has the yellow jersey and Team Sky have the race in the palm of their hand. With the Peloton exceedingly tired following heavyweight punches in the mountains, the last two stages had been non-events before today, where the Peloton caught the breakaway with ease, to the point where Wiggins gave Edward Bosson Hagen a leadout in an attempt to gain a well-deserved stage win. In the end the Lotto train proved too strong for everyone, although Peter Sagan’s green jersey lead now only has one main contender with Matthew Goss and Mark Cavendish being dropped badly and finishing minutes behind the main pack.
Today’s stage sees things move back to the main GC contenders, with two Category 1 climbs as the race enters the Pyrenees. The two climbs are the Port du Lers, 11.4km at 7%, and shortly after the descent there is the demanding Mur de Peguere, which is a 9.3km climb at an average gradient of 8%. This is expected to bring the main players today and there’s no doubting that the likes of Vincenzo Nibali – a worthy favourite today - have looked in exceptional shape so far this tour and the two extremely steep descents should really suit him, but Boasson Hagen, Porte, Rogers and Froome have kept every attack of his in check so far and it’s likely he’ll be reeled in if trying something today – They cut a gap of 57 seconds back in around 10 minutes on Stage `11.
With a flat finish – especially for a stage that will demand so much of the riders throughought the middle – it’s likely a breakway will succeed and Luis Leon Sanchez, an excellent climber and winner around the Pyrenees in 2008, has shown more than enough intent and talent to suggest he can finally get a stage win for Rabobank. The winner of two stages on this year’s Tour Du Romandie (the second of which included three first-category climbs; the Col des Mosses, the Piste de l'Ours and also the climb of the St-Martin, with each climb rising to in excess of 1,450 m (4,760 ft) above sea level), he tried for a sneaky late push yesterday but was reeled in quickly, which was no surprise given the power of the Sky and Lotto Belisol trains, and with today’s stage not offering such an opportunity for them to be reeled back should he make the break, he makes obvious appeal at 14/1, while he climbs more than well enough to be involved at the front of the Peloton if things become a grinding battle.
Of the big names, I can’t help but feel that there might still be value in Froome (pictured) considering that Sky are riding from the front in the Peloton and that he covers Wiggins’s every move – and late in this race with no flat finish, would be allowed to kick for the win, but the GC contenders might just be watching eachother today with the drop giving things the feel of a transition stage.
Maybe more value might be found in the Frenchman Sandy Casar – who saved himself yesterday, can climb, get in a break and is no threat whatsoever in the GC (the formula for stage winners), while Ajeandro Valverde’s two stage wins this year give him some appeal, although Rui Costa has been seen off the front more than his team mate this year.
Advice
1 pt win, 2 pts each/way Luis Leon Sanchez (14/1 general)
1 pt each/way Chris Froome (20/1 Betfred)
1 pt each/way Sandy Casar (20/1 general)
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