Tour De France - Stage 15 [Samatan - Pau]

Carpet tacks, wind, and rain threatened to setback Bradley Wiggins’s tour charge yesterday but amid several moments of drama and sportsmanship, his yellow jersey lead remained intact yesterday and he’s getting closer and closer to fulfilling his tour dream.

A number of spectators threw attack at the top of the final decent, an extraordinarily dangerous thing to do considering that the punctures would have taken place down a descent where the riders could have reached upto 70mph, which saw Evans and three of his team mates suffer punctures, while Wiggins too needed another bike. However the Londoner, Christened “Le Gentlemen” by the race organisers for slowing the Peloton – while credit must be given to Nibali for abandoning his descent when he could have gained several minutes.

As for the stage result, it was the best one yet for the Vic Page, with winner Luis Leon Sanchez punted hard at 14/1 both win and each/way, along with Frenchman Sandy Casar, who stayed on nicely in the sprint for third, just ahead of Philippe Gilbert, meaning our 20/1 third paid off very nicely indeed. As such, we’re playing with free money in this regards when the stage moved towards the Pyrnees, giving the sprinters the last chance they’ll have until the Champs Elysees on Sunday for a stage win.

Gripel may be celebrating once again

Barring a few category 4 climbs the stage is as flat as a pancake, so while a breakway looks likely to materialise, the odds are that it’ll get caught easily especially with the leadout trains working hard as they do to push for the best positioning. This means that the stage will be fought out by one of the 4 elite sprinters: Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan, Andre Grepiel and Matthew Goss. Very little will separate either of the four, and cases could be made for any of them, but the latter two of Griepel and Goss make the most appeal.

Cavendish, along with Goss, was dropped on the way to Cap D’Agde but expect him to be right in the firing line given the flat nature of the stage, and with Sky not looking likely to be threatened, he’s sure to have one or two team mates with him as a repayment for ferrying the water all the way along the tour to help the climbers at the front of the Peloton – Bosson Hagen was given a leadout on Saturday and the same thing might happen today, so he’s got to make appeal.

So too must Sagan, given how he’s the best climber of the sprinters by a distance as shown by his relentless antics over the Mue De Puguere, and the relentless power shown by him in all the bunch finishes will see him there at the finish, although with the Green jersey in the bag and a home straight of 160m only, there might be a chance for a rider to outdo him with one kick, as Gripel has done several times so far on the tour.  

The Lotto Belisol team train has been exceptional so far and with the last chance before Paris for a stage win, along with it also being Gripel’s birthday (well noticed Tristan Wootonn of Live Odds And Scores) everything’s likely to be set up for him, and that makes him the bet today – remember we’re playing with free money.

The real value in the race though, is Matthew Goss. Out of the Green Jersey race after his 30 point deduction and dropping from the main group on Bastille day, he’s his team’s main last chance of a stage win – Stage 18 is a harder task than they’d want – and his previous form makes him far too big at 7’s. Before Saturday, he’d made the top three in 3/4 sprint finishes and had beaten Peter Sagan (you decide how fairly or unfairly) in the sprint for Saturday, and for the most part he’d done well despite his team being outmanoeuvred by Lotto Beilsol, so the 6/5 on a top 3 finish and the 10’s being offered on Betfair for a stage win seem overly generous today.

Advice

2 pts Andre Greipel (9/4 general) ((100/1 Betfred, at 3:34 PM)

1 pt Matthew Goss (8/1 Bet365, 10/1 Betfair) (100/1 Betfred, at 3:34 PM)

1 pt Goss top 3 finish (199/1 Betfair at 3.37PM)

UPDATE - The breakaway has been let away by the Peloton, which means that they now have a lead of around 8:15 mins. If they'll make it is to be seen - with Orica Green Edge, Lotto Belisol, and even Sky (now currently doing the work of setting the pace of the Peloton) wanting to reel them back.  If you must hedge your bets then I would suggest going with Samuel Dumoulin, who was in a similar breakaway a couple of days ago only to fail to last it home but should be much happier with this flat finish, while at 3rd favourite he offers much more value than Thomas Vockler and Federick Pedrigo. The sprinters are trading at massive prices now thanks to the break, and that's been reflected in the update above.

Advice


1 pt Samuel Dumoulin (3/1 Betfred)