July Festival 2012 - July Stakes

1.50 Newmarket

TNT July Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £34,026

Advice: 2 pts win, 3 pts place Ahern (5/2 general, 4/6 Boylesports), 

Ahern: Overcame inexperience on  to make a winning debut for David Barron in juvenile conditions race at Musselburgh, beating 4 other winners; Only fifth in the Norfolk at Ascot but shaped much better than that result, having lost a lot of ground at the start before making up plenty of late ground; This sixth furlong might well suit him and has to be respected.

Alhebayeb: Green, went left start and continued to look that way towards the finish when winning at Nottingham on debut, and then second at Ascot in the Windsor Castle, running on hard late; This should suit and high on list although this seems to be a step up in class on ratings.

Birdman: Impressive winner at Chepstow (heavy ground) after his easy win in Brighton maiden (promising 3^rd before over Rowley Mile here); Deserves respect stepping up in class but others preferred and this seems a far harder task.

Chilworth Icon: Only fifth in Chesham on second last start but got second Listed win on the board when back to 6 furlongs at the San Siro latest; Likely that’s his trip but exposed in the Chesham and others make more appeal here at this level.

Gale Force Ten: Got the better of good yardstick in neat style when winner second time out at the Curragh, and then excellent second in the Norfolk, having been rousted earlier than others; This trip should suit on that basis and no worry for how much rain actually falls for him, so high on list.

Heavy Metal: Typically tough and progressive Mark Johnston 2 year old, eighth on debut but convincing winner of two other races before just failing in bid for Listed event & hatrick at Epsom (Chilworth Icon); Well beaten in Coventry and others make far more appeal.

Lewisham: Good speed when second and third in maidens at Newcastle/Doncaster (too keen early and then tried to come from last to 1^st at Doncaster); This a whole different ball game.

Sir Prancealot: Well backed for debut at Bath and won going away with plenty in hand at the end, but that nothing compared to how impressive he was in National Stakes at Sandown, suffering disputed passage; Looked the better the further he went so 6f of Coventry was expected to be no problem to him, and ran a brave race there, pulling and failing for a run before ending up fourth late on; That form arguably the best here and feeling that he can do better still, so has to be a worthy favourite here; Would want to settle better and can’t have the ground soften up too much but the one to beat here.

Smoothtalkinrascal: Caught late on by a combination of extertions and soft ground by good type in strong maiden at Newbury on debut and easy winner at Lecister to follow that one; Better than  bare result in Windsor Castle last time but still well beaten and others make more appeal.

VERDICT: A good looking renewal at first glance and the first real acid test of the Juvenile colts form from Royal Ascot, with the obvious disappointment that Sir Prancealot (fourth as favourite that day despite noting having circumstances go against him) not running today. Norfolk second Gale Force Ten looks sure to go well and is the one to beat but AHERN lost the race at the start that day and was staying on powerfully at the end to finish only 2 lengths behind the Ballydoyle charge; With an extra furlong sure to suit he looks worth giving another chance if over his greenness today. Alhebayeb should like the extra furlong here but his form looks a touch below that of the others and it might be best to look elsewhere.