Grand Prix De Paris 2012

6.50 Longchamp

Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €342,840

Advice: 2 pts win Saint Baudolino (9/2 Stan James), 1 pt win Last Train (10/1 general)

Last Train: Extremely well bred, being a son of past winner of this and Arc hero Rail Link and a half-brother to dual Group 1 winner Powerscourt; Not lived upto much on first three starts after successful debut there in April but trainer farms this race like no other (won three of last six renewals) and step up in trip should help so has to be considered strongly on value ground.

Lidari: Not sure that he coped with the ground when last of sixth behind Hard Dream in Group 2 and maybe fact he’s been supplemented after 2 Listed wins suggests that; Hard to think he’ll be good enough though on all evidence.

Saint Baudolino: Beaten favourite on his first two starts but as with so many from his yard, made leaps and bounds of progress with racing and quickened very smartly to beat Sofast when getting through tight gap in Prix De Guiche at Chantilly and then followed that up with second in Jockey Club when getting smashed around, like many in that race; This promises to see him in better light and has to be respected coming from Fabre yard.

Imperial Monarch: Looked a horse with a future when winning first two starts (maiden and Group 3 at Sandown, both of which have gone onto work out well), with more in hand than winning distance suggests on both occasions; Sent to French Derby last time and shaped as best horse in the race when one of worst affected by barging that took place at the end of the home straight, being shuffled back to last before rattling home for eighth; May well have won that day with better passage and this trip sure to be up his street, with ground no problem; One to beat.

Main Sequence: Highly progressive for racing and stepping up in trip, winning two good handicaps at Newmarket and then the Lingfield Derby trial before second in the main event, snatching second on the line from tired runner up; Still worthy of major respect here for all that sounder the better and some now questioning the Derby form; Chance here nonetheless.

Hard Dream: Improved enough to land a 1m2f Group 2 here when ground was heavy  and seventh in Jockey Club creditable enough when looking as if he’d have enjoyed a longer trip, but was well behind Saint Baudolino that day (and Top Trip to an extent) and others make more appeal here.

Albion: Far better this year than at 2, having gotten better of Luynair here on soft ground (10f) before being narrowly denied by Kesampour in Group 2 at Saint Cloud; That flattered him a little though and no answer to pressure in Prix Du Jockey Club; Others preffered.

Top Trip: Beaten by Prix Du Jockey Club winner Kesampour with ease  but found his form at longer trips, sweeping home for relatively easy Group  2 win here (1m3f) before fifth in Jockey Club’ Should be taken into account that he had to come widest of all from last to first but wasn’t interefered with and while no surprise to see him better that, others today preferred.

Nutello: Won three of his first four starts, being well placed on each occasion by Olivier Peslier; Stark improvement on all previous form when 3^rd in Jockey Club but had a clear passage all the way and expect to see that form reversed over this trip.

VERDICT: The race that has had a reputation as the “Real French Derby” ever since the switch in distances eight years ago and that will ring true today, with this year’s Prix Du Jockey Club having been a farce in the latter stages. Imperial Monarch suffered most that day and is generally expected to compenstate for a luckless run that day, but SAINT BAUDOLINO had just as much trouble that day – despite not being shuffled back – in running and is nearly double the price for a trainer which has won half of the last 6 renewals and 11 in total. At the prices he has to get the vote, while his stablemate LAST TRAIN is also worthy of support. A beaten favourite the last twice, he’s got a lot to find but is bred to come into his own over this trip, being a son of Rail Link and a half-brother to Powerscourt, and the Prix Juigne winner has come 1^st and 3^rd in this in recent years,  so he bears a few similarities to some recent winners.