July Festival 2012 - Falmouth Stakes

3.00 Newmarket

Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £90,736

Advice: 4 pts win Golden Lilac (10/11 general), 1 pt win Joviality (14/1 general)

Alanza: Extremely progressive throughought last season, rounding off hat trick with swooping run in the Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster (beat Chachamaidee); Disappointed behind that rival on Rowley Mile but suspicion that she’s better than that came about when making promising reappearance behind Emulous and then when winning Group 3 in cosy style; Needs a career best to get into frame here and ground might not suit.

Barefoot Lady: Excellent level of consistency shown last year at top level and same case this time around with her two fourths in Group 2 company; Will try her best but held by several members of this field based on form and may not like ground softening.

Chachamaidee: One of most improved fillies last year, travelling strongly on her was to winning Oak Tree Stakes and then running creditably in Sun Chariot/Challenge Stakes; Return was that of exceptional horse and hugely creditable, if not unlucky, second in Windsor Forest Stakes where she lost several lengths at the start and expended yet more energy with last to first move on outside of the field; Should go well here but seems to appreciate ground as fast as possible and today’s surface might not bring out the best in her; Faster the ground, better her chances.

Giofra: Put in one of the most impressive performances seen this season  when trashing stablemate to win the D’Harcourt over 10 furlongs at Longchamp, but then proved no match for Cirrus Des Aigles there next time; Nothing wrong with that effort (The softer the ground, the harder Cirrus is to beat) but clear that we didn’t see best of her in that ground and soft/tacky surface would remove confidence; Also has nine lengths to make up on Cirrus on that form.

Golden Lilac: Showed herself to be an exceptional filly last year with French Classic double, sprinting clear on both occasions; Only third in Deauville Group 2 later on in year but well below par thanks to virus and back with close to a career best when winning Prix D’Isphan on seasonal debut, pulling fiercely early but still having more than enough to quicken away and beat Cirrus Des Aigles at the end; That form the best in the race by far, stays further and does have form with cut to her name, so sets a sky high standard.

Joviality: Career best when winning Windsor Forest Stakes at Ascot (just ahead of Chachamaidee), having more left in hand (nearer front the whole way round and helped thanks to that) at the end of the race despite hanging across to the right late on (was keen early); This harder than that but been steadily improving, gets further than this (Musidora winner last year), and does have some form on soft/easy ground, so has to be strongly considered for those wanting to oppose the favourite.

Lay Time: Showed tremendous promise in Listed and handicap wins last season and while she disappointed a few on Epsom comeback, clear she didn’t like the track and better in Windsor Forest when not getting quite the clearest of runs late; Can do better still but this harder and winner that day (Joviality) preferred still.

Siyouma: Progressive this season and 10 furlong third in Saint Cloud Group 2 her best effort yet (form of that extremely strong on a line through 1^st two) and conditions  going soft wouldn’t trouble her, but drops back to a mile which doesn’t give her much appeal as she does much of her best work towards.

Elusive Kate: Made expected improvement from promising debut when cosy winner at Kempton and has since landed two Group events in France since, winning with ease on both occasions; Followed that up with convincing Marcel Boussac win despite drifting very wide into middle of course; Never in with a chance from stall 10 at Breeders Cup (pace too slow for her too) and while much better than that, this a belated comeback for one so talented and fitness might be an issue.

Irish History: Shaped like group class filly when bolting up from fair field at Windsor and them messed around in Heron Stakes at Sandown; Proved herself worthy of step up to Group 1 level in Coronation Stakes, coming a good third on soft round despite running around late on; Could be interesting here for all this is a tougher task.

Maybe: Undisputed champion filly of last year, stepping up in Grade on each of her 5 starts before winning Group 1 Moyglare Stakes impressively; Not lived upto same hype this season, disappointing when third in the 1,000 Guineas on soft ground in the Rowley Mile before Oaks fifth, although little went her way that day; Seen similar types come and win this but must improve still and get feeling that despite her Ascot win last year, she would want quicker gound; Each/way shout.

VERDICT: A quality field but they all face a tall task on form against GOLDEN LILAC, who may have posed a career best on her reappearance when beating Cirrus Des Aigles on her reappearance in the Prix D’Isphan despite being a dual French Classic winner last year. She can be extremely keen early but does have easy ground form, stays 10 furlongs, and could well improve from that reappearance, which means they’ve all got work to do to get to her. Of the likely chasing pack, JOVIALITY appeals most, as she looks to have improved from last year based on her Windsor Forest Stakes win (where she had a little bit in hand at the end), stays further, can cope with a slow pace, and looks to be the type to cope with ease in the ground. Giofra looked exceptionally on her seasonal debut and deserves respect, although she looks to want fast ground (especially at a mile) and has a lot of ground to make to Golden Lilac on a line through Cirrus Des Aigles. Chachamaidee would become very interesting if the ground was to dry out, while Maybe has a similar profile to 2010 winner Music Show and deserves some respect; The other 3yos in the field (Elusive Kate and Irish History) could be given chances at their best, although they have a lot to find.