I’m not quite sure that the measured guys at Team Sky believe in having Cake, or let alone the icing on said cake, but Mark Cavendish’s second stage win and their fourth has taken this tour to new heights and with the British team looking nailed on to land a fifth victory in the individual trial, it’s all rosy for Brailsford, Yates and co. The 53.5KM stage between Bonneval and Chartres is a near exact copy of the 1st with the only difference being the extra 12 KM here, which if anything suits Bradley Wiggins (pictured) more given his dominance over the longer time trial scene.
Wiggins was expected to take a big hand in the opening Time Trial – he started just 2-1 but he was expected to be beaten by Cancellara – but by covering the 41.5 in just 51.24 he smashed his team mate Chris Froome by 35 seconds and jumped into a yellow jersey lead that he’s not relinquished since. The winner of the Tour De France elect – this was set to be the stage that decided the tour de France but any of his rivals will need to take 2.21 minutes out of him plus to pass him here and this is his domain – Wiggins is 2/5 across the board and it is hard to imagine him getting beaten, such to the point that even that long odds on price is hard to fault in any way, and barring accidents he should win (and even then the long haul distance with a car just behind should really help him). You won’t get rich backing him, and there’s much better value to be found anyway, but good luck trying to beat the Brit. What’s really interesting to know is that his two major time tiral wins this year – in the Dauphine and Stage 9 of this Tour – have been by 34 and 35 seconds respectively – and the 6/4 on him winning by that margin seems like a very nifty wager.
The one man who bookmakers think is close to capable is team mate Cristopher Froome, who has shot onto the main scene with several massive climbs in Wiggins’s bid for the Yellow Jersey (including a stage win and two seconds), and shocked many by going faster than world champion and time trial king Fabian Cancellara in the opening seconds and holding that time to the finish to beat Cancellara by 22 seconds at the end. He should finish second once again and a clear one at that, going into the podium place that he’s held ever since.
The others? Slyvain Chavanel was fifth in Stage and is France’s champion but is now out, while both TT specialists Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin sadly out of today, which means that white Jersey and future Tour winner Teejay Van Garderen looks to be an exceptional bet for third. The standout performer for BMC this year, with Cadel Evans cracking in the mountains after losing time in the time trial, and he was a clear fourth on Stage 9, who was faster than Cancellara at both checks before the finish and ended up clear of Chavanel in fifth. With no other rider in 20 seconds of that time he set, the 13/8 about him being best without Wiggins and Froome is a no brainer and close to maximum bet. That market also features the likes of David Millar, and Bert Grabsch, a former TT Champions, although it’s surprising to see Cadel Evans and Peter Velits behind those given that they were sixth and seventh on Stage 10 respectively and the 14 and 33/1 offered about them with 3 places ¼ each/way might be the bet for those who want some real value, although I’m more than happy with my big double.
Advice
5 pts Teejay Van Garderen w/o Froome and Wiggins (13/8 Skybet)
2 pts winning margin to be 30-60 seconds (6/4 Blue Sq)
No comments:
Post a Comment