1 pt each/way Kirthill, 3.00 York (10/1 general)
From the minute that Kirthill ended up a never nearer sixth
in the Wolferton handicap (one of the strongest, if not the strongest, handicaps
run this year anywhere), I knew that I’d be backing him on his next start and
while today’s John Smith’s Cup is a very strong race in itself, I’ve got no hesitation
in recommending him once again.
Having gotten “eyecatcher of the week” –“ Largely unconsidered for the Wolferton, he
never made any real inroads towards the end but he never looked like dropping
away and the quality of the horses infront of him, coupled with the fact that
his best form had previously come on ground described as good to firm, made it
a commendable performance from the Luca Cumani trained colt” – a big run is expected
today with confidence only emboldened by the fact that Kireren Fallon has 52
wins from 299 rides around the round course this century, as highlighted by
James Pyman in today’s Trading Post. With the ground presumably as good as it’ll
be it anywhere in the UK at York, he’s got to have a great chance of giving Luca
Cumani his first win in the race.
The outstanding favourite is and has to be Mijhaar, who has
only had six races and never been worse than fourth in any of them (that time a
non-staying fourth in a strong King Edward Stakes), and having been picked for
the Wolferton he ran a huge race only to be caught late on for third. He’s got
a huge chance once again but the main problem is his refusal to settle in race,
which in handicaps of these nature is beginning to cost him badly late on, and
that has to be a worry. He’s fairly prices if you want to have a go at him, but
he’s just best left until latest to see how fresh he is early on.
1 pt each/way Area Fifty One, 3,00 York (13/2 general)
Best of the rest might well be Area Fifty One, who comes
here having progressed immensely for Richard Fahey again after improving for
Willie Muir last season. Much like Kirthill, he needed the run badly on his
seasonal debut behind Gatewood and allayed fears about soft ground when running
a cracker having been narrowly outpointed by the reposing Navajo Chief over here
at a trip a furlong shorter. He had looked set to win that day but a Fallon special
dragged him back and the soft ground might be to blame for that. He put that
right when romping away with a competitive handicap at Newmarket, and a 5lbs
penalty is more than fair – while it’s negotiated by Shane Kelly, another
pstive in a race where the last 4 winners have been ridden by apprentices.
If Kirthill wasn’t here then I’d be keeping Media Hype –
winner of a strong C&D handicap this year and a confirmed performer on
ground with cut – well onside given how well he did to get into fifth late on
at Newmarket after a poor trip, while he might have been feeling the particularly
quick ground that day. This is an excellent chance for him and he’s rated but
Area Fifty One gets the hype. Aikimos has to be respected dropping in trip for
a Godolphin team which are amongst one of the hottest in the country, for all
that he’s always looked (for both this stable and Luca Cumani) like he wants to
go further than even 12 furlongs, and others are just preferred today. Navajo Chief
could be massive is his form is taken literally, but for a screamer look at
Right Step, who won on heavy to start
his season at Epsom and is only 6lbs higher despite shaping well when sixth in
the Duke Of Edinburgh; He might want the ground firmer but is worth a look.
1 pt each/way Mount Athos, 2.25 York (8/1 general)
Sometimes you have to look log and hard for value but I struggle
to find a reason why Mount Athos should be as big as 8/1 in the John Smith’s
Silver Cup. Yes, the top two (Suraj, an easy winner on his last handicap start
on hist his fourth start, and High Jinx, who won one of the stronger July
Course handicaps seen this year and will stay this trip) look to be very
progressive and should take some catching but Luca Cumani’s charge made the
frame in the Chester Cup and Cesarewitch last term, and while he disappointed in
the Ebor, his impressive win at Newamrket when last seen suggests he’s in as
good heart as he’s ever been and there seems to be no reason why he can’t make
a bold bid here once again and he looks to be a great each/way bet form the
plum draw in stall one, with the ground having dried out enough for him (been kept
clear of soft ground since 2010).
Plenty need considering, including Crakentorp (who goes on
good as well as soft and is running career best after career best) , Motivado
(who showed enough to be backed into 5/1 for the Northumberland Plate and hated
the heavy ground , having won twice over this trip), and Never Can Tell, who didn’t
handle soft ground on her return in the Chester Cup and is only 7lbs higher
than for her Cesarawitch win.
1 pt win Stepper
Point, 3.35 York (10/1 general)
Another bunch sprint with a tight finish likely, and plenty
to choose from. At his favourite track Hamish McGongall demands favouritism,
but he was well behind Stepper Point in the Prix Du Gros Chene and is big at 10/1 considering that he had Hamish
McGonagall half a length behind at Ascot, and just on value it seems to be
worth having with the draw in stall 1 possibly being a help too. Masamah, Ponty
Acclaim and Confessional are all worth looking at, with the first names of
those getting preference given how he’d have needed the return in the Temple
Stakes, but the value could be with Stepper Point and his 3 year old allowance.
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