2012 Olympics - Swimming (Day 4)

Women's 200m freestyle final: Another night, another superb swimming final loaded with talent, old and new. The women’s 200m freestyle has a cracking big three to battle for gold. Olympic and World Champion Federica Pellegrini has been imperious for so long in this event, and she’d be very hard not to make a case for if she hadn’t been disappointing in the 400m free style, finishing only fifth behind Camile Muffat (pictured) and Schmitt amongst others. However, a look back at history tells us that at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, she arrived as the world-record holder and favourite for the gold medal in the 400 m freestyle, but only finished 5th in the final but then set a world record in the heats of the 200 m freestyle and broke own world record (1:54.82) and won her first Olympic gold medal in the final that night. With this being her signature event, and her having form at these games, it’s folly to write her off, even with her time being only fourth best – she was taking it slow in her semi despite winning – and if there’s more to come then she’s big price at 3/1, while the 8/13 on her medalling is obviously a safer option if you're so inclined.

In the 400m final, Camille Muffat beat Allison Schmitt by a clear half-length – the pair clear through in one of the most dominant swims seen throughought these games barring Ye Shiwen - and little separated them once again in the heats for this, with the places reversed but only 0.03 separating the pair. I’d be willing to bet that Muffat could once again beat her American rival in the final of this event and while little will separate the pair of them, I’d be willing to bet the improvement by the Frenchwoman over the last year can see her home infront – she’s 1/2 with Ladbokes to pick up a medal and that might well be a safe punt for those who want to support her.

Schmitt is a major threat and I’m well prepared for her to ruin the portfolio, but at favourite I’m inclined to take her on given how Muffat beat her on Sunday and how Pellegrini could improve at this distance.  

New US supersatar Missy Franklin is sure to be cheered on by her many sets of adorning fans but her event looks to be the backstroke and that might be where she has her second day in the sun, and an interesting springer might be Bronte Baratt, who beat Schimitt and Muffat in the semis and is 12/1 and 3’s for a medal.

Advice

1 pt Fedrica Pellegrini (7/2 Stan James)

Men’s 200m Butterfly final: Could this be the night history is made in London’s glittering Aquatics Centre, the moment Michael Phelps becomes the most medalled Olympic athlete since the modern Games began in 1896. The American had 16 individual and relay medals to his name before London but disappointed in the 400m IM, where he was a laboured fourth, but with this being his favoured event with no Ryan Lochte, there should be nothing to stop him on paper although with him struggling as he has done, it’s hard to fancy him properly even at a tempting 4/6.

Women’s 200 IM final: Ye Shiwen is now as short as 1/66 to win after she shocked the world in the 400m equivalent, and if she can perform to that same level then she should be as nailed on as that price suggests she is. Thankfully, those who read the page regularly will be sitting pretty on 3/1 for the current world champion, and that looks to be a great price with a heavy punt on Hannah Miley already in the bank, and the knowledge that this gold medal will bring us one closer to the magic target of 38 for China, and take them one clear of the US in the race for top medal spot. Other Medal contenders include Alicia Coutts, Stephanie Rice, and Catlin Leverenz if they improve on their 400m showing, but there’s only one name we’re focused on.

Men’s 200m Medley Relay Final: Consider this. In an eight horse race, one horse sets off clear, takes a lead going strong from the front, increases that lead under pressure in the final furlong, and then slowly but surely gets reeled in by the second placed horse at that time, who takes it by a head in the last 50 yards. The same eight horses run a day later, and the second is 2/7 and the winner 10/3?

That’s the situation with France and the USA and while the changes made to the Americans looked to have a positive effect when the storming the heats, but at 10/3 there’s simply no choice – they are the bet to once again shock the USA for the second time this week.

Advice: 1 pt France (10/3 general)

Molecomb Stakes 2012

3.45 Goodwood

bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (2YO only)

Winner £22,684

Advice: No bet, strongly consider Hototo and Dylanbaru as value at their prices

Bungleinthejungle: Looked useful when taking small event at Beverley in good style last month and been beaten since although that in good company; Looks held by Hototo and Dylanbaru on recent Windsor Castle form.

Dominate: Went clear with promising maiden winner on debut at Windsor and did the job dropped in trip when running out a ready winner on soft ground at Sandown; Needs more on both efforts but respected here; On good ground for the first time.

Dylanburu: Disappointment when last of third at Tipperary but witch to good ground partly responsible for second and third in 5f listed races the past twice;

Hototo: Was the gustiest of those who came up middle of course when landing Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and while only sixth in Super Sprint next time out, heavy ground stopped his chances; Expect better from him on a better surface.

Lyric Ace: Disappointed stepped up in class the last twice, only midfield at Royal Ascot after two impressive wins and then a laboured seventh in the Super Sprint last time; Better ground will help him and potentially notable that he’s the choice of Hughes but others more progressive.

Morawij: Supported into favourite for Haydock debut (produced two subsequent winners) when he got up showing marked greenness; Tons of scope in Norlfolk when carried across his side but still fourth, and easy listed win suggests more to come.

Bridge Night: Lost the race inside the first furlong when being hampered badly and then pulling race away in Listed contest at Newmarket; Can do better but others make more appeal.

Jadanna: Bettered the form of her Queen Mary fifth when third in Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket last time, a promising effort; That form gives her a chance here and respected.

Lady Ibrox: Made all in small 5f event at Chester, showing bundles of pace to get to the front and stay there; Likely that an even greater test of pace will suit but doesn’t look good enough in the slightest and others make much more appeal.

Sand And Deliver: Showed bright speed all 3 starts but nothing more and others simply better.

VERDICT: A tricky contest with the juveniles sure to go flat out from the start, so the early part of the race could be crucial in allowing the class edge. Morajwij is the best of them on Norfolk form, which has to be respected (it looked stronger than the Windsor Castle this year), but he’s a short favourite who the bookies are sure to get and HOTOTO may well have been overlooked at 11/2 unfairly based on the heavy ground blunting his speed in the Super Sprint last time. Back on good ground – the surface with which he beat the July Stakes winner at Ascot – he could take the beating at a price like this, and the same goes for Dylanburu, while Jadanna is resected although this might be yet tougher still then the Cherry Hinton. 

Lennox Stakes 2012

3.10 Goodwood

bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner £79,394

Advice: 3 pts win Chachamaidee (13/8 general)

Edinburgh Knight: Recent seconds over 7f (close second to Libranno and even better when beaten same distance by Field Of Dream at Ascot recently, having suffered troubled start) but this is a step up in class for him;

Firebeam: Bounced back from Longhchamp disappointment with second in 6f Newbury Sprint on heavy ground latest; This will suit better but but more needed and looked stretched over this trip when landing Listed contest;

Libranno: Won Criterion Stakes on July Course (loves it there; Taking record to 1141 on that track) when beating Edinburgh Knight latest and respected over his ideal trip with trainer and jockey in great form coming into this week; Should take beating.

Mac Love: Good return for evergreen 11 year old when third at Epsom in race that has worked out well since; This a drop down in trip and step up in class so hard to see him doing as well.

Majestic Myles: Been his typical consistent self this year, coming second once and third twice before then romping home with Chester Listed contest on soft ground latest; That confirms his wellbeing but behind Libranno and Firebeam this season and can’t see that changing.

Chachamaidee: One of most improved fillies last year, travelling strongly on her was to winning Oak Tree Stakes and then running creditably in Sun Chariot/Challenge Stakes; Return was that of exceptional horse and hugely creditable, if not unlucky, second in Windsor Forest Stakes where she lost several lengths at the start and expended yet more energy with last to first move on outside of the field; That makes her the one to beat

Foxtrot Romeo: : Looked like a useful horse when winning on debut at Hamilton and then running fourth in Conditions Stakes/Group 3 but made mother of all comebacks with massive second to Power in the Irish 2,000 Guineas; Only sixth in St James’s Palace but trip got to him late on and might be better down at this trip.

VERDICT: CHACHAMAIDEE can gain compensation for an unlucky defeat at Royal Ascot, where blowing the start meant she didn’t have enough left to pass Joviality in the last furlong over a stiff mile. A bad start here would spell trouble but 7f suits her down to the ground and she’s got the talent to beat the boys here if all goes well, having shown her speed over this trip when landing the Oak Tree on this card last year. Her biggest threats look to be Libranno – so good at this trip and from the leading trainer and rider at this course so often over the week – and Foxtrot Romeo, who wants a drop in trip. 

Gordon Stakes 2012

2.35 Goodwood

bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £34,026

Advice: 1 pt win Noble Mission (7/2 Coral)

Ed De Gas: Back to the sort of form that had seen him touted as group horse when third in Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last time (2m, soft ground); Drop back in trip not expected to be a problem but this a much tougher task and others preffered.

Encke: Promising 2 year old (Debut form got a boost when winner was second in Autum Stakes and then ran out a really impressive winner of backend Newmarket maiden) who came back in excellent style when winning handicap on eagerly anticipated return, always looking as if he had more in the tank although trip not an absolute positive.

Farhaan: Progressive 2 year old until flopping in a good renewal of the Royal Lodge Stakes (the 3 Ballydoyle horses who filled the places had all won or placed in pattern company before or previously) when clearly not at his best,  returned in good style when fourth in the Fairway Stakes on his debut, an effort which at that the time had credit, but has since proven to be even better in hindsight; This trip might well suit and sure to have come on a ton for that but this a better race and stable well out of form, so others make more appeal today.

Girolamo: Has the best form claims on his German Derby third, with the previously very impressive Novelist just ahead in second and the winner having gone onto spread-eagle field in older horse Group 1 on Saturday;

Michaelangelo: Major promise when third behind Nible Mission on debut at Newmarket in Listed events and built on that majorly when then winning Listed event and valuable sales race dropped down in trip to an inadequate 1m4f; This (his first attempt) at the trip sure to bring out best in him and the one to beat here.

Minimise Risk: Not lived upto potential of maiden win at Newbury, being stone last in Chester Vase and then well behind in Derby and Queen’s Vase; Others more progressive.

Noble Mission: Full brother to Frankel who hasn’t done badly in trying to live upto his illustrious achievements, winning Listed event at Newmarket before creditable second infront of Farhaan (had also previously beaten Michelangelo on that one’s debut at 10f) in event that has since worked out very well; Second in King Edward Stakes last time as goof a piece of form as any and hopefully he can go one better here.

VERDICT: Michaelangelo is all the rage for this after a convincing win in a sales race last time, mainly upto the basis he will relish this longer trip. While that’s very true, I’m not sure he’s any value at his current price against NOBLE MISSION and Girolamo, both of whom boast excellent form courtesy of their latest runs and are sure to be hard to beat. It’s a tight choice but Henry Cecil’s runner looks sure to win a big race soon and can get the better of the German raider, with Encke sure to come on from his return for all this is a harder race upped in trip.

2012 Olympics - Swimming (Day 3)

Men’s 200m freestyle: Sun Yang, Yannick Angel, Ryan Lochte, Paul Bidermann and Park Thewan. An Olympic fantasy team or 5 of the competitors for the 200m freestyle final? Luckily for everyone, it’s the latter and we should be set for a scorching final between 5 great swimmers, 4 of which have already medalled, while the other holds the world record, which is enough to make you forget that defending champion Michael Phelps has sadly dropped this event. Given the quality of the competitors, the 4/1 freely available on the exchanges for  a new world record is interesting and might be worth an interest at the least, with plenty of records going and the effort level guaranteed to be at its highest.

Picking the winner is extremely difficult, with plenty of evidence that any of the big 5 could win. The first Chinese man to win an Olympic swimming gold (when beating Park Thewan into second after the Korean was let into the final on appeal), Sun clocked the fastest time of one minute, 45.61 seconds in Sunday's semi-finals although Lochte, who won the 400 individual medley gold on Saturday, swam a more conservative semi, saving his energy for the men's 4x100 freestyle relay final, in which he finished second as part of the USA, where Yannick Angel pulled the swim of his life to beat him in the final 100m. Yang looks to be a strong favourite after his 400m but at 3/1 there’s a temptation to side with Angel, knowing that he has a slight measure of Lochte, although this is a final to watch and savour rather than go all in, with the knowledge that a gold for China’s Su Yang would be good for us on the whole.

Advice

1 pt Yannick Angel (3/1 Youwin)

Men’s 100m Backstroke: It must be a source of frustration for many that there’s no 50m backstroke at the Olympics much loved Brit Liam Tancock has won gold in that event at the last two World Championships and would rank a strong favourite to take gold. As it is, he’s got to go double the distance and that takes a lot of the raw speed away from him after the turn. It’s to be hoped that he can repeat Rebecca Adlington’s performance on Sunday and take a bronze medal anyway, but a gold looks to be a step too far.

This should come down to a straight fight between American Matt Grevers and Frenchman Camille Lacourt (pictured above), and while it’s hard to argue with Grevers being a hot favourite – He’s been the fastest on the planet at this distance for a long time, posted the fastest time in the heats, and now has no Aaron Piersol, the world record holder courtesy of his gold at the last Olympics, to contend with), a price of 2/9 overall (he’s 3/5 with Youwin) is far too short and World Champion Lacourt, who won the other semi-final in 53.03 to be second overall, is 5/1 in a virtual match despite the fact that he eased up late on in his semi. The ½ for him getting a medal seems to be better value than the 2/9 on Grevers.

Advice

1 pt Camille Lacourt (5/1 Stan James)

4 pts Camille Lacourt to medal (1/2 Ladbrokes)

Women’s 100m Backstroke: 4 years ago Emily Seebohm couldn’t handle the pressure of the Olympics and was only ninth in the final of the 100m backstroke, but she heads into today’s final a much stronger woman and athlete and it’ll take something exceptional to knock her off the top spot. Seebohm broke the Olympic record with 58.23sec in the heats - just 0.11sec short of the world record, set by 2009 world champion Gemma Spofforth at the height of the supersuit era - and backed it up with a dominant 58.39 in the semi-final, when more than a second ahead of US sensation 17 year old Missy Franklin. With more in the tank to come, she can win another gold for Australia and possibly threaten the World Record in doing so.  The 1/2 about Missy Franklin getting a medal of any kind is interesting despite the price given how strong she’s looked in her heats, while Australian Belina Hocklin and Japanese Aya Terkwaka are bronze medal contenders.

Advice

3 pts Missy Franklin to medal (1/2 Ladbrokes)

Women’s 100m breaststroke: This looks to be a straight fight between Lithuanian teenager Ruta Meilutyte (left) and American Rebecca Soni, and with the former having posted a new European record, it’s hard to switch allegiances at this moment in time. Just 15, she blazed to a near Olympic record in semifinal two of the event with a scorching 1:05.21, the fourth fastest of all time in the event's history, surpassing the European record of 1:05.41 from the 2009 World Championships in the process.

Rebecca Soni won her semi-final in 1:05.98 and looks a banker to medal, although her chances of overturning the favourite on times look to be quite slim and she may have to settle for another silver medal following Beijing four years ago. Breja Larson did beat her in the US Olympic trials and while that form wasn’t confirmed in the semis, she is evens to win a medal (essentially racing for Bronze if the top two turn up) and that might tempt some, with Australia's Leisel Jones, the defending Olympic champion who won a silver medal at the 2000 Sydney Games when she was 15, finishing sixth overall.

Advice

2 pts Ruta Meilutyte (8/11 Betfair)

2012 Olympics - Men's Swimming (Day 1)

The Guide:

Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte will go head to head for the first of many duels
tonight

Swimmers use four strokes: freestyle (or front crawl), breaststroke, backstroke and butterfly. A medley race is one where all four strokes are used. Most of the races take place in the middle eight lanes of a 50 metre long, 10 lane wide pool, but a longer 10km race takes place in open water.

There will be 14 individual events at London 2012, added to three relays. The individual events comprise freestyle races over 50 metres, 100 metres, 200 metres, 400 metres and 800 metres. There are two events each in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly (100m and 200m).

Men’s 400m Individual Medley: Usain Bolt and Yohan Blake duelling will be the biggest fight of the games for many but Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps going head to head is one of the biggest features of this year’s events and the 400m medley promises to be a crackerjack between the two, although there was a worry that the biggest shock so far of these games would see us without Phelps in the final, as his leisurely first time in the heats stopped the clock at four minutes 13.33 seconds, just 0.07 ahead of Hungary's Laszlo Czech,who missed out on the final despite being the silver medal holder.

Ryan Lochte, the new hotshot on the block and World Champion at this and 400m, was a best priced 2/5 when last seen at the time of writing and the value from Lochte has gone now, and this is now an event to watch and savour.

Men’s 400m freestyle: This event looks to be at the mercy of Sun Yang, after Korean swimmer Park Tae-hwan, a national hero after winning gold in Beijing four years ago, was disqualified for a false start during his heat. There looks to be little value here either with the champion sadly out, so tread cautiously unless medal betting. 

2012 Olympics - Women's Swimming (Day 1)

The Guide

Swimmers use four strokes: freestyle (or front crawl), breaststroke, backstroke and butterfly. A medley race is one where all four strokes are used. Most of the races take place in the middle eight lanes of a 50 metre long, 10 lane wide pool, but a longer 10km race takes place in open water.

There will be 14 individual events at London 2012, added to three relays. The individual events comprise freestyle races over 50 metres, 100 metres, 200 metres, 400 metres and 800 metres. There are two events each in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly (100m and 200m).

200m Individual Women’s Medley:  One of the most competitive events of the whole games, the 200m individual medley has at least 5 in single figures for a gold medal, and none of the 5 winning would surprise. Young Chinese star Ye Shiwen (3/1 general favourite) won the 2011 World Championship with a stunning win after her huge kick in the final leg, roaring home to beat to defeat defending champion Ariana Kukors, an American seven years her senior, and she sets a high standard to aim at for all comers here if in the same form – with no real reason to think that she isn’t. Australia’s reigning Champion at both this and the 400m, Stephanie Rice missed out on a medal last year but by all accounts she is meant to be sharper this year round (see below, 400m IM preview and that will see her competing for medals in the finals later today, which is remarkable considering the shoulder trouble she’s had of late. 

A stronger hope may well be Alicia Coutts though, who was second to Shiwen in the World Championships and trades at around 11/2 with Skybet while being nearly half that price across the board, and at evens for a medal, the latter making most appeal. The US duo of Ariana Kukorz and Catlin Leverenz are tricky to separate. 2009 World Champion and 2011 World Bronze Medallist Kurokorz holds the record here but he world-record time, posted by Ariana Kukors at the 2009 World Championships and at the height of the high-tech suit era, is widely considered to be untouchable and serves no guide now it’s back to textile suits. Leverenz beat her at the Olympic trials and if repeating that, has a medal shot. And what of Britain? Hannah Miley was only 11^th fastest in 2008 but is judged to have come on leaps and bounds since with extra effort and her time in the trials for this event (2:10.77) would have been ‘good enough for any Olympic title, bar 2008 in the dawn of the turbo-suited era’. It’s unlikely that she can deal with the elite at this distance - her real chance to shine is at 400m, where she is Commonwealth Champion - but she can make the final and a lumpy bet on her doing so at 4/6 seems good value.

Advice

5 pts Hannah Miley to reach final (4/6 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Ye Shiwen (3/1 general)

Stephanie Rice has made a remarkable comeback from injury problems
and can gain a medal once again

400m Individual Women’s Medley: No woman from the US has won the 400m individual medley since Janet Evans in 1988 but wonderkid Elizabeth Beizel is the outstanding choice based on her world title triumph last summer, where she won by more than two seconds when clocking of 4:31.78, beating Australia's Stephanie Rice and Great Britain's Hannah Miley. At the US trials, she beat Caitlin Leverenz by nearly three seconds and missed the US record by barely six-tenths of a second, so she comes here in top form and ready to swim for her life, so the 11/10 on gold is close to maximum bet potential.

Rice and Miley are the other big medal contenders, and both look excellent bets for medals today. Having already highlighted Miley’s strong progress, 4/5 for a medal is tempting with Ladbrokes given that her time of four minutes 32.67 seconds in the longer event was the second fastest ever swum in a textile suit (bettered only by Beizel). Rice posted a time of four minutes 33.35 seconds in Adelaide, which suggests she’s coming to the boil in her best event – she does hold the WC at this event that he claimed in such tenacious style at the Beijing games. At 13/8 for a medal, she is impossible to ignore. Hungarian Katinka Hosszu has been 4:32.83 this year and is said to be in contention for gold. Hosszu and Another European, Spain's Mireia Belmonte, has already been in the 4:33 range this season, so along with China's Li Xuanxu and Ye Shiwen, both warrant attention although the 3 at the front should come home in that order.

Advice

4 pts Elizabeth Beisel (11/10 general)

2 pts Stephanie Rice & Hannah Miley to make medals (13/8 Betfred, 4/5 Ladbrokes) 

2012 Olympics - Men's Road Race (Cycling)

The Olympics are now properly underway and one of the outstanding bets of the first day could well be Mark Cavendish to land Britain’s first gold medal in the men’s Cycling elite road race today. Cavendish was the only one of Britain’s elite squad not to come away with a medal in the Beijing games, but everything has been geared towards delivering him onto the line first from team GB and now if ever is the time for the World Champion to place an elusive triumph at this level on his glittering rostrum.

The course for the race – a London showcase – begins on The Mall, before the riders head south-west through the city. They will then cross the Thames at Putney Bridge and continue out through Richmond Park and past Hampton Court Palace, where they then head to Surrey for the main feature of the race in Box Hill, which is taken in a loop and climbed nine times for the men’s race, and through Leatherhead, Esher, Kingston, Richmond Park and back to The Mall for a sprint finish, assuming all goes to plan.  The latter stages of the Box Hill climb are where sprinters would normally be expected to struggle but a flat 40KM afterwards appeals as a lot of time to chase down a breakaway and a sprint finish does look fairly likely if the main bunch can reel in an attack. Great Britain may only have 5 riders with which to control the Peloton but there are few better riders to be tasked at keeping the race under control than Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome, David Millar, and Ian Stannard. To underline the strength in depth of that team, the 1-2 from the Tour De France, Stage 12’s winner, and the British National road race champion.

Froome is an expert climber as he showed throughought his second at the Tour De France, romping Stage 7 after setting one of the most brutal paces of the whole race, winner Wiggins himself successfully led out Cavendish twice in the Tour De France during the latter stages to repay Cavendish for his earlier efforts in the mountains, David Millar’s years of experience will be crucial in judging the pace of a race where no radios are allowed, and Ian Stannard (himself the British Road Race Champion and twice a part of Ben Swift’s stage wins during the Tour Of Poland) played a massive part in the World Championship win of 2011.

That win there shows a lot of the skills which will be needed and in many ways Cavendish has a similar task on paper, even if more difficult. At the 2011 World Championships in Copenhagen, Steve Cummings and David Millar closed down a gap between the breakaway of upto eight minutes to four, one of the main reasons for Cavendish’s win and the sprint finish, in which he beat Goss and Gripel.

Cavendish himself has won around the course in the Olympic test event (seen left), shedded weight to aid his climbing, and has proven that hilly stages are no problem to him, having won Stage 18 with the aid of Sky chasing down a breakaway after the Côte de Souillac – a category four climb which Betting.Betfair’s Jack Houghton will tell us is near identical to Box Hill with ‘a climb of 118m (Box Hill is 125m); over a distance of 2.67km (Box Hill is 2.51km); on a gradient of 4.4 per cent (Box Hill is 4.9 per cent); 42km out from a sprint finish (Box Hill is around 43km out)’. Given that had come on a hilly stage (there had been a Cat 4 and 3 on the same stage before that pint) it not becomes harder to question the climbing ability of Mark, who has been pace setting over the Pyrnees in this year’s tour. With 30KM of flat to chase down any breakways, the best riders in the race for the climbs and leadout trains, his claims are unmissable and it’s impossible to get away from him and he’s close to a max bet at 10/11 with Sportingbet.

Who else can challenge him? If this is likely to be a bunch sprint, then the likes ofPeter Sagan and Andre Greipel have to be second and third on the list, as the market does have them (and rightly so).Between them these three men won all the flat stages of this year’s Tour De France and if you thin today will play out the same way then it’s silly not to have them onside. Sagan did best on long runs and stuff finishes in France but his seconds to Cavendish in the Tour’s latter stages suggest that he doesn’t lack for speed and crucially he’s by far the best climber of the sprinters on the elite circuit, so going around Box Hill 9 times will not faze him. Only seventh at the World Championships, he’s a better rider now and his ability to catch the wheels of other sprinters is second to none, so he should rank highly, while he can also get into a break and stay there. Griepel had a poor ending towards his tour but that doesn’t make him at 14/1 shot in a bunch finish if he gets around the course alright, with the possibility of his German team working alongside Team GB in a bid to keep the race under control (although they may put John Degenkolb in the break)

Fabian Cancellara, the reigning ITT Olympic Champion, is a 14/1 shot and his speed combined with ablity makes him an interesting shot as he was third in Bejing after getting into a break. Indeed, the breakway here may well be the highest quality seen in a road event this year. Those who would be looking to get away include Belgians Tom Boonen (the National Champion) and Philippe Gilbert, Holland's Niki Terpstra, Spaniards Alejandro Valverde and Luis Leon Sanchez, Irishmen Nicolas Roche and Dan Martin, Italy's Vincenzo Nibali, Germany’s John Degenkolb, Nowegian Champion Edwald Bosson Hagen, and France’s Sylvain Chavanel to name just a few, while Cadel Evans might actually be involved if not setting up a sprint for Goss later today.  With Gerrans, Evans, Rogers, and O’Grady there it’s tempting to get Goss too onside, for all that he’s hasn't got the better of Cavendish since he fell in the Giro a couple of years back. The Australian is 9/2 for a medal of any kind and that looks to be the way to go if you want him onside.

Luis Leon Sanchez appeals as a likely breakway man – his attack from the front in Foix was one of the best of the tour – although with both reigning Olympic champion Samuel Sanchez and José Joaquín Rojas’ both sidelined through injury, they’re that much weaker. At 8/1 for a medal (Alejandro Valverde is 16/1 for that honour) he is tempting, although the latter end of this stage might not lend itself towards a group staying away, with only the narrow roads likely to be a possible hinderance to the chasing pack preventing a sprint.

Advice

5 pts Mark Cavendish (10/11 Sportingbet)

1 pt Peter Sagan (13/2 Paddy Power)

1 pt Andre Griepel (14/1 Boylesports)

Olympics 2012 Preview

After 7 long years, more than 9 million pounds, nearly 9 million tickets, and the efforts of hundreds and thousands, the day is finally here. London 2012 kicks off in emphatic fashion today with the opening ceremony from 9 tonight, and the general mood in and around London today was one of excitement and optimism, a far change from the cries of boredom, wasted taxpayer money, and security concerns that had littered many minds (including those of yours truly) and papers until just last week.

The only questions for anyone now should be who wins the medals, and the gold medal battle between the two biggest nations on the planet has got many experts scratching heads.  For the last two games, nobody has touched China or the USA, and the bookmakers have it as an each of two contest between the Americans and Chinese. In Being, home advantage finally swung things the way of the Chinese, with a huge team of 639 athletes  racking up an astonishing 51 golds, 15 more than the US, leaving them with 100 in total, just 10 behind the US, who gained the most medals for the third games in a row.

Just a taster of what's to come tonight, taken on Wednesday 

Their team is nearly halved this time around but it’s still one of the highest quality outfits at the games and the major statisticians – Infostrada, Goldman Sachs, Daniel K.N. Johnson, Sports Myriad, Luciano Barra, Price Waterhouse, and the USA Today Olympic medal trackers – all have them winning at least 33 golds once again, and some have them still top of a medal table they romped 4 years ago.

World Championship performances (complicated by Luciano Barra) – which take no account for home advantage, which we will come to later – have China winning 43 golds and while it’s hard to see that happening again, the 7/5 on them topping the table is of interest in what’s a straight shootout.  The 15 medal advantage they have is a lot in hand and that makes the bigger price in a two horse race – any value about the US in the gold medal race went long ago – interesting. But with possibly 40 medals needed to top the rankings, the best bet may well be to take China to win 37 or more golds.

No predictions apart from Barra have them doing so but before Beijing they had won 32 golds successively at each games and it may be that the team sent here – while not the vintage of 2008 – is well capable of beating that target, with quality the emphasis rather than quantity this time around, with the traditional strongholds of table tennis, badminton, diving, gymnastics, shooting and weightlifting looking sure to reap nearly 30 medals once again, while there’s potential for swimming, athletics, judo, boxing and taekwondo to give the final push needed in a gold medal total push. 37 or more will be a hard target to achieve but nobody saw them making 51 last time around and I’d much rather be going above than below the line.

  

The USA will be powerhouses once again and can be comfortably expected to have a gold medal tally in the high 40’s, but they’ve got to be opposed in the betting on value grounds – they’re long odds on for most golds at just 13/20 and are 4/11 for most medals overall – and anyone wanting to get behind them is steered in the direction of Paddy Power’s 5/6 that they can total 103 or more medals, which would be my choice if forced to support the. They have only 66 less athletes in their squad this time around and it makes sense, more so than either of the medal choices.  There’s a slight worry that there’s little margin for error in the price though, and with many US strongholds under attack from all areas, it will be interesting to see if they are quite so dominant as usual. They should be looking to make 100 with ease but the line (as most of the over/unders are this year) is too tight to find any value.

Russia should be a clear third best once again and rack up plenty of medals, but the fight between them and Great Britain for third in the medal table is going to be one of the highlights of the games, with hopes high that Team GB can put up a strong showing and even take third in a medal race according to some. With Russia’s might and GB’s home advantage expect the fight for best of the rest to involve those two despite this being a Germany team high on quality, and much like above, it’s no easy choice deciding which of the two to pick.

The temptation is actually to side with Britain for third place in the medal table, given a record of steady improvement that saw them move into the top 4 well ahead of schedule in Beijing, the result of a decade of hard work and investment from all areas since it was revealed the games were coming to London, where they gained a record gold medal haul tally of 19 golds. Led by the omnipresent (to use one word to describe him) Charles Van Commenee, UK Athletics have gone above and beyond targets set so far, and the peaking effect looks to have come just in time for the games. Home advantage often has a massive effect upon the host nation at these games and with Great Britain only 4 behind Russia in Beijing, the 8/5 on them topping the table without the big two is actually rather tempting. The average rate of increase for the past three hosts in terms of gold medals is 62.33%, they have 541 athletes in 25 sports compared to 311 in 20 last time around, athletics improvement is expected, and the increased efforts since Beijing of UK Athletics can only bring more improvement, so an increased gold medal haul should be well within reach and they look worth supporting in small measures to come third in the medal table, as a swing of only 4 golds is needed and home advantage could easily do that.

On that same score, Russia have to be opposed on the total medals line of 81 with Paddy Power. The Russians are sure to rack up a hatful of medals ranging from 70 upwards, and they may find their traditional gold medal strongholds under attack from hosts Great Britain, while the US and China will obviously dominate the table once again. They gained 72 in Beijing and while they had 92 in total at Athens and 88 in Sydney, China’s squad is stronger now than it was in the earlier part of the century, and targets ranging from 60-80 (including one that had a 97.4 % correlation with the actual medals table of participating countries in the Athens games in 2004 and up to 96.9 % of the Beijing games in 2008) suggest that they can be kept under 81 in the long run.

Advice

`1 pt China to win most gold medals (7/5 Youwin)

3 pts China to win 37 or more gold medals (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt GB most gold medals without USA and China (8/5 Paddy Power)

5 pts Russia to win less than 81 medals (5/6 Paddy Power)

Olympics 2012 - Men's Football Preview

When you think of the Olympics football doesn’t necessarily come to mind and many British people will be looking forward to other events – rightly so – but don’t you dare assume that favourites Brazil are not itching to right the wrong of them having never won the gold medal in numerous attempts, having gained bronze and silver twice. One of those Bronze medals were gained four years ago in Beijing, where an Argentina side which contained Juan Ruqelme, Javier Mascherano, Pablo Zabaleta, Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, final hero Angel Di Maria and Ezequiel Lavezzi were far too good for Brazil in the second half, beating them with ease in the end. The public had expected more but in hindsight few stood a chance against ta team with so much future talent and it’s very much Brazil in the hotseat this time around.

The most known player in the squad is Neymar (left), the Santos hotshot who is ranked by many as close, if not on the same level as Ronaldo and Messi, having helped Santos win the 2011 Copa Libertadores – South America’s Champions League - (coincidentally for the first time since 1963, when Pele led his club to glory – but that’s just the beginning. He is flanked by Leandrio Damiao, scorer of 6 goals in the Copa Libratores, and Chelsea target Hulk, scorer of 26 Leagiue goals for Porto in the last two seasons, having been underused by Brazil until now, while they themselves are supplied by one of the world’s best midfields.

New Chelsea signing Oscar scored a hat trick in the U20 World Cup final and had been impressing all onlookers with Interactional over the past two years, while Ganso will be looking to prove the hype behind him before his knee injury was indeed correct, with a move from Santos on the cards according to many before this summer. Manchester United have looked towards 19 year old Sao Paulo midfielder Lucas Moura as one of the key components in the bid to grab back their title next season.  Sandro has played a key part in all that Spurs did well – and it was a lot - last season and the presence that he offers infront of the back four is an immense reassurance in this context, although Brazil hardly lack strength in depth in an area where they can call upon the World’s best centre back in PSG’s new signing Thiago Silva, while wig backs Macrcelo and Rafael offer a huge amount going forward in terms of delivery, even if there are some doubts about the latter going back on himself.

Such is the way things have turned out that Brazil are using the majority of the squad that they expect to represent them in 2 years’ time at the 2014 World Cup which they have been preparing for since 2007, and as such they have much the strongest squad at the completion though a mix of intense preparation and good fortune.  With automatic qualification towards the World Cup, Brazil have few opportunities to play competitive football and these are the last competitive games Brazil will play before the tournament, barring the Confederations Cup next summer (in a shortened format), so a bold show is expected (if not having already been expected of them), and anything barring a defeat in the gold medal match against Spain would be seen as a massive disappointment. There’s a slight worry they’ve not won the medal before but prior to Argentina's 2008 retention, there had been four consecutive first-time winners, and Spain amongst others have shown us that talent can break any seeming “curse” in world football, so the 6/4 about them winning the tournament (a short price for many) is taken with relish, given that their route to the final looks to be clear, and while second favourites Spain would be a fierce contest, they have a side well capable of beating them, if not going into the game with “confidence”.

Should Brazil fail to land a maiden title at this level then someone has to pick up the pieces and another South American side make the most appeal in Uruguay.They’ve been supported down from quotes that initially were as big as 12-1 but still look worth having onside as a saver given the progress they’ve made of recent years.

Officially South American’s top team on FIFA Rankings after reaching the World Cup semi-finals and then winning the Copa America the year after, they’ve made an excellent start to the qualification campaign for 2014, lying just a point behind in second despite having played a game less than Chile at the top of the standings.

They qualified here through their runners up spot in the 2011 South American Youth Championships – won in style by Brazil – having struggled early on before finding their feet late and come second ahead of Argentina in the “final stage” of what is effectively a youth Copa America.  That had followed a run towards the final of FIFA U-17 World Cup in Mexico, so their youth team – which is being looked to with as close to a home World Cup as they will get in just two years’ time given that they have a fairly ageing side by International standards – has experience of going through to the latter stages of tournaments, which is reassuring.

Leonardo Pais is one of many promising Uruguayan youth prospects

They should we well capable of beating all of their Group B opponents – the UAE and Senegal provide an excellent platform for two wins out of two before taking on Britain, who they are well capable of beating hands down. Facing one of Mexico or Switzerland (the two I’m backing to make it out of Group B) will not be easy, but they have one of the best sides in the completion and I expect them to make it through to the semis at least and then get a medal, for which they are 11/8, a tempting price as it pays out on them reaching the final and/or winning the fourth place playoff, which you would strongly fancy them to do so if Brazil and Spain make the final. The odds on them for Bronze are 4/1 as well, and that too should be added to compensate for them being knocked out by Brazil in a possible semi. With the third best squad in the completion and one of the best managers there in Oscar Tabrez, there’s little not to like.

I realise that this means I’m opposing Spain from an outright view technically, and of course that’s a massive risk to take, but Uruguay are twice the price of them outright and I honestly do believe that Brazil have the team to beat them in a one off game, so while it’s a big risk it’s one I’m happy to take here in the knowledge that they can be followed throughought the group stages – where they should coast through – and the quarter finals, while I don’t see them getting any shorter unless one of the top two fail to fire early on.

Their squad – which will be described in more detail during the Group profiles – is richly talented and experienced at this level, and they will make the semis of the final without fail barring accidents, so I can’t put anyone off them despite feeling the two South Americans more.

Great Britain are just 13/1 to win with home advantage behind them but it’s hard to get truly behind them from a betting point of view with Stuart Pearce’s side having been thrown together at the last minute – this is their first tournament in 56 years – and while they should be able to get through their group, they lack depth in the squad to seriously contend with the big three and could be vulnerable to Switzerland or Mexico in the first knockout rounds, while all of England’s top players barring Micah Richards and Jack Butland are unavailable.

I expect Mexico and Switzerland to make it through Group B and both are interesting long term proposition, with slight preference for Mexico given that they have won the Toulon tournament already this summer and can count upon the services of Fabian, Giovani and Peralta at this games while several members bring experience with them.  For a huge longshot, Egypt make the most appeal of the African nations. Turmoil after the Uprising of Mubarak stopped them from making the Cup of Nation but good past tournament form – they drew against Brazil in the U20 World Cup 2 years ago and were knocked out by Argentina – and they are worth supporting in the group stages after facing Brazil today.

Advice

6 pts Brazil (6/4 general)

1 pt Uruguay (7/1 general)

1 pt Uruguay Bronze Medal (4/1 Skybet) 

2012 Olympic Football - Men's 1st Round

Honduras (12/5) v Morocco (13/10)

Honduras and Morocco look to be fairly evenly matched based on their routes here – both were second in their respective groups on the way here, while Morocco were second only to Senegal in the CAF qualifying zone. The fact that Honduras kept just one clean sheet in what looked a weak group barring Mexico – who they admittedly pushed all the way to the final – is a fair negative though and that just lends out in link to Morocco. Both of their wins were 1-0 and at 6/1 that seems a good way to start the day with bigger fish to fry.

Advice: 1-0 Morocco (6/1 188Bet)

Mexico (5/4) v South Korea (5/2)

Mexico, winners of the Toulon tournament this summer, the Under 17 World Cup in 2011 and semi-finalists in the Under 20 equivalent that same year, have lost just two of their ten Olympic matches and look to have a cracking chance of beating South Korea and getting off to a flyer in their quest for the quarter finals and beyond. They have a strong squad for this level and plenty of youth, and govn there’s only 16-1 for the tournament, 5/4 for this opener is worth taking.

Advice: 4 pts Mexico (5/4 general)

Spain (4/11) v Japan (8)

Spain, the dominant force in world and European football after their Euros success and holders of the U21 European championship, have a serial winning pedigree for this event and should have little trouble overcoming Japan in their tournament starter. In winning the U21 Championship – much like their seniors – they kept 3 clean sheets in 4 games after an opening 1-1 draw, and monopolization of the ball may starve Japan of the chances to get into the game, so a win to nil at 6/5 seems a good choice.

Advice: 2 pts Spain to win to nil (6/5 Coral)

UAE (16) v Uruguay (2/7)

Uruguay are one of the best teams at this summer’s Olympic games and much like Brazil and Spain, are using this as a springboard to find new talent in preparation for the 2014 World Cup – possibly even more so than Spain and Brazil, whose talents are well known already – and they should be looking to put the UAE to the sword. The UAE did get here unbeaten but this is a much higher quality test for them and the value may be in backing Uruguay to push the game over 2.5 goals if their  class shows.

Advice: 1 pt Over 2.5 goals (9/10 Stan James)

Gabon (4) v Switzerland (4/5)

Switzerland were second only to Spain in the 2011 European under-21 Championship and a 1-0 loss to Senegal should have set them up nicely for a good crack at Gabon, despite the loss of star duo Granit Xkhaha and Xerdian Sahiquri before the tournament. The Swiss kept clean sheets against everyone but Spain and can make a winning start here based on those foundations.

Advice: 3 pts Switzerland (4/5 Ladbrokes, Coral), 1 pt Switzerland to win to nil (7/4 general)

Belarus (4/5) v New Zealand (3)

Belarus put in a good fight against Spain before going down in the semi-final at the European Championship and they’ll like their chances against New Zealand, who picked up one point in three games at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and face another big step up in class (10 of of their 11 qualifying goals were against Tonga).

Advice: 1 pt Belarus (5/6 general)

Brazil (2/9) v Egypt (18)

The quality of this Brazil side is just scary and they should face no trouble in getting towards the knockouts and righting the wrong that has seen them fail to win Olympic gold in football. Egypt should do just fine through this tournament and may have a bigger say later on but they should ease through. The 4/5 on them winning to nil should be taken before it goes.

Advice: 2 pts Brazil to win to nil (4/5 general)

Great Britain (4/6) v Senegal (5)

Great Britain have home advantage but are a long way shot of troubling the top teams on paper and their team having been thrown together at the last minute, they could take a game or two to warm up, as shown by their relative 2-0 tonking against Brazil. This is a step down but it could still be difficult and the 5/6 on under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal.

Advice: 1 pt under 2.5 goals (5/6 Bet Victor)

Tour De France Stage 20 - [Rambouillet - Paris Champs-Elysees

Congratulations and Bloody well done mate! Bradley Wiggins is getting the credit and adulation he really deserves now but I take no hesitation in heaping it all upon him once again and he processes into Paris this year with the yellow jersey on his back and the honour of being the first British person ever to win the Tour in 99 years of trying, with Chris Froome three minutes behind and Italian Vincenzo Nibali over 6 minutes in arrears.

From day one he’s been in complete control of the race, and Wiggins - just 5-4 to win the Tour beforehand following wins in the Paris Nice, Romaidie and Crtierium Du Dauphine – never really let go of the yellow jersey after putting down a big marker in the Prologue, one of three ITT’s on this tour. After winning the other two in sensational style, victory’s always looked guaranteed and the champagne that he has this afternoon is going to be richly deserved, barring accidents.  So too will the celebrations for Tomas Vockler, who has brought this tour to life with his enigmatic brilliance, bringing his all to the table in the same way that team Sky did every single day, and young guns Peter Sagan, the outstanding winner of the points Jersey, and the much deserved white jersey of Teejay Van Gerdenen, who came fifth overall, a massive effort considering he worked for Cadel Evans in the mountains.

Today’s stage is a procession into Paris for everyone to have a good time and celebrate the end of the race, before 10 super-fast laps of the capital and a then sprint finish which has a sharp right hander just before the bend.

It really suits the experienced types and proper flat out sprinters, so it’s no surprise to see Mark Cavendish – who has won the tour’s final stage every single time he’s finished the tour – as a hot odds on favourite. Cavendish was expected to become largely anonymous throughough this year’s tour thanks to the duty of helping his Team Sky team mates proved by taking Stage Two in Tournai without any help from his team and then again when taking Stage 18, this time assisted by Wiggins and Bosson Hagen. With both men expected to busy themselves to help him today, the odds on is a fair bet, although he’s too short for us to seriously consider unless properly smashing into him.  The hard work of Lotto Belisol has helped Jurgen Van Den Boreck into fourth overall and Andre Greipel, who has won three stages, could be called arguably the best sprinter on this year’s tour. He’s been exceptional weather in or out of the train, and has the turn of speed that flat stages demand, so he should be right there and the 4/1 on him is fair, although it’s hard to see him beating Cavendish unless Lotto get ahead of Sky at the top of the train. Some have suggested that backing him each/way could be a way to prospect for those with better each/way terms, but at 4/1’s he’s too short for us to consider.

The best way to eek out value looks to be to find the third placed man, either each/way (although I do believe that the top two places will be taken by Cavendish and Gripel and Cavendish). The two best sprinters not mentioned are Peter Sagan – who has the yellow jersey in the bag – and Matthew Goss – who has no stage win to his name but would hardly be more deserving of one. Sagan is sure to want another stage win but he has the green jersey in the bag, thrives of a stiff finish, and will be riding the final sprint for the first time. Goss needs things as flat as a pancake,  seems adept at hanging onto the wheel and getting into a good position despite not winning a stage, and has been involved in four bunch sprint finishes this year. The 16/1 looks to be a good way to end the tour for value seekers.

A good case can be made for Tyler Farrar – who’s had a rotten Tour for many reasons – given that he made fourth last year behind Greipel and also was third in 2009, so the fact that he was involved at the end of Friday’s stage agurs, well although his team has been decimated by injury. At 50’s he could be worth the risk for some, while Bosson Hagen, who does such a good leadout job and can sprint to a high standard – he’s a winner on the tour before – and was second last year may well foil our plan by placing due to positioning, as Mark Renshaw took second in 2009.

Advice

1 pt each/way Matthew Goss (16/1 Betfred)