So often it’s a nightmare trying to work out form for 4
runner conditions races & the opener at Newcastle is a typical example but
there’s one horse than comes along every so often and leaves a taking
impression and that’s why I’m siding with Parc De Lunay to take the opener
(2.10). A well backed favourite on debut from the useful Tom Tate yard, he
travelled like a more than useful horse before lengthening out well despite
hanging badly late on. The time was very good for the race (which hasn’t worked
out) & he can take the beating here with Jamie Spencer having a good time
of late.
There are obvious threats, the main one probably being Bartley
on a weight basis given that he gets 3lbs having given away a ton of weight to
the runner up in a Carlisle maiden auction last time, also Piece By Piece (a
gutsy winner from a subsequent scorer latest) Kenny Powers, who was a promising
debutant from a top stable for juveniles this season last time even if he didn’t
quite look like a sure-fire winner in waiting when making good process into
fourth last time.
The next doesn’t at all seem like a betting race but given
that things fall her way there’s more than enough (given a bit of close
attention in the betting) to recommend Citizens Charter’s (2.45) is worth a good
look. Firstly, she’s a brother to the top class colt Commentator and also is a half-brother
to Savvy Supreme, a 6f Listed winner in the US at 3. She would need to have the
rain stay away but if the betting speaks, it should be noted despite the group
1 entries of the Tom Dascombe trained Electric Qatar & the booking of Jamie
Spencer for the second string Captivity.
The horse that makes most appeal in the handicap ranks at Newcastle
is Extraterrestrial for the inform and ever reliable Richard Fahey yard in what
looks like a really good handicap for the money at 3.20. He got back to his
best when taking advantage of a very lenient mark when winning with plenty in
hand at Thirsk on penultimate start and he was far from disgraced in a really
good quality Epsom handicap last time when Just in front of stable-mate Arabian
Spirit (whom Hanagan again deserts, yet another positive. He goes on all ground
and is well worth backing to beat a host of talented types.
Tipperary’s card will have future winners a plenty although
it’s not easy to work out who (as it the game played with nearly all punting)
but there are two that take the eye. Johnny Murtagh once again did this blog a favour
when producing a masterclass to land the Windsor Castle on Frederick Engels
& then the Wokingham on Deacon Blues and if anyone here wants to watch a masterclass
at negotiating the wide draw then his last win on Adiynara (7.20) is textbook. Without
hesitation Murtagh settles into a block free gap right on the outside for his mount
and is always there from the outset, before then going at it four furlongs from
home and having more than enough in hand to just hold on late. That may have
boosted her confidence and given that she has a good record with ease in the
ground, she has a fine chance at the weights and is sure to go well based on
her recent win.
Being a sharp, flat, left handed track, Tipperary can be a
rather advantageous track to be drawn low and in a race where any of 5 can be
given a realistic chance (7.50), it’s very encouraging to see one of the most
unexposed sorts (once raced) who already has some of the best form drawn as low
as 4. Red Calima was given a lot of ground to make up on his debut to an
impressive winner and next time out scorer (consistent type) at Leopardstown
and given the improvement he should make, combined with an easier looking race
and a good draw advantage, he rates a big shout here. Of the 2 Ballydoyle colts,
Enchanted Forest is readily exposed and vulnerable to others, while Paint Your
Wagon is badly drawn in 10 & didn’t quite look the type for blinkers to
make huge improvement last time. A bad draw also puts me off the chances of
Sonapour while Highly Efficient’s race has worked out really well and he looks
the main danger.
Of the other races, only one really appeals and while I’d be
backing Self Preservation to be reversing form with Perfect Goddess in the
opener (5.50) but that’s a trappy contest and the ground might not suit the
pick so that’s left.
Advice (To best
morning price if no price given)
Newcastle
2.10 – 1 pt win Parc De Lunay
3.20 – 1 pt win Extraterrestrial (6/1 Paddy Power)
Tipperary
7.20 – 1 pt win Adinyara (9/4 Paddy Power)
7.50 -1 pt win Red Calima
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