Irish Derby 2011

3.50 Curragh

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €725,000

Pick: Seville (win)

Carlton House: Promising debut was blown out the of the water by demolition job in 1m maiden win at Newbury, marking him down as exciting prospect; Confirmed that impression when defying slowly run race and keen early start to come out well on top in Dante (also came through horses), cementing position as Derby favourite; Things didn’t quite go his way (previous injury scare on week) at Epsom, having been asked to make large amount of ground up from long way out, run flattening out in final furlong; Should go well with better trip here although would want quicker ground.

Dunboyne Express: Showed potential stardom when slamming Samuel Morse to win Anglesey buy wide margin, and forgiven Racing Post Trophy fifth having had an interrupted preparation (form worked out); Returned with smooth win for easy task at Leopardstown but failed to build on that promise when running into only poor fifth in Irish Guineas last time; Passed over.

Memphis Tennessee: Showed enough on his debut to suggest he could do well for himself and smashed into odds on before winning over 1m on the AW at Dundalk last November; Best of the rest behind Recital in Derrinstown Stud Derby trial on debut and had them all at it around Tattenham Corner before being reeled in; Can go well again although reversal of form unlikely.

Native Khan: Made deep impression when winning maiden and Solario Stakes in taking style, and bettered that form in defeat when fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Technically holds some of best form courtesy of his 2,000 Guineas third, an effort all the more notable given that he was one of few to be close to Frankel and not weaken; Didn’t look like a stayer in Derby, so interesting connections persevere here; Rain wouldn’t suit.

Notable Graduate: Porgressive colt who made it two wins from his first three starts this term when making all the running in a three-runner affair over a mile and a half at Gowran Park but then beaten at odds – on in Listed event latest; Says lot about him that he runs here but others hold stronger claims.

Roderic O’Connor: Took a major step forward with every run last season, culminating in Dewhurst second and Criterium International win (despite veering); Disappointed in 2,000 Guineas but chased too hard a pace and unfit, so clear that Irish 2,000 win was more accurate reflection of his ability (despite looking like a weak race); Well beaten in French Derby latest but didn’t stay the trip, having raced too close to a very fast gallop; Probably won’t stay again.

Seville: Shaped like a horse of major potential on first two runs and backed that up when run a blinder when chasing home Casamento in Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October (well ahead of Native Khan); One of those most unsuited by slowly run Dante Stakes at York, but still well beaten by Carlton House; Flop at Epsom but never handled the track for a second and better can be expected with different race today.

Treasure Beach: Progressed with each start last year and was unlucky not to complete hat-trick in nursery at Listowel; Bettered that form when respectable third in Royal Lodge (well behind winner but hampered badly in straight) and continued progression when winning Chester Vase first time out, beating Nathaniel by a head & career best when beating all but Pour Moi at Epsom; Can go well again and the one to beat.

VERDICT: A devilishly tricky race to sort out and the ground is another spanner in the works. Many will be with Carlton House and it’s hard not to see him going close after a brave and only slightly unlucky effort last time, but he’s no value and would want quicker ground in an ideal world. There’s still time for that to happen, but the suggestion is to keep the faith with SEVILLE, who was never in the Derby at Epsom but matches the profile of many winners and has the potential to be a Group 1 performer. Treasure Beach & Memphis Tennessee should again go well.