I usually struggle with the Brittainia Stakes (4.25), so
using the excellent Paul Jones ATR Page * I’m trying to solve it a different
way today.
Featuring 30 three-year-olds, the majority of which are
unexposed and from top yards, the Britannia Stakes is the most competitive
three-year-old handicap of the season, so it’s extremely surprising that 14 of
the last 20 winners could be found in the first half-dozen in the betting.
An even more surprising stat is that he last time the winner
came directly off a victory of any kind was back in 2001, also combined with
the fact that eight of the last 12 winners were drawn no more than four
positions off either rail.
Combining those stats leaves me with Ashva, Polar Kite,
Dimension, Baptist & Catalyse (who can be removed on the basis that just 2
winners since 1991 were worse than fourth) Rigoletto, Belgian Bill and Tropical
Beat, who gets the vote given that he comes from the Yard of John Gosden, four
winners, a second and two thirds, albeit from 27 runners. Notable, like all
four of his previous winners he ended their juvenile season without a victory
and also failed to break their maiden tag at first time of asking as a
three-year-old.
In the King George V
Handicap (5.35) it’s very interesting (although possibly not surprising to see)
Apache pitched in here. He’s got significant potential and many have him down
as Group class but a mark of 99 is a big wallop even with the ease of his win
last time and his attitude under pressure can still be called into question if
you look at his defeats on his first three starts this season.
The one for me is Sud Pacifique, a decisive winner of 1m2f
Doncaster maiden in April who followed up in good duel for a well contested
handicap over the same trip at York in May. This is obviously harder but he’s bred
to improve for the step up to 12 furlongs and another race (only had 4 more
furlongs) and he can go close here, with the profile of a typical winner.
 |
| Sud Pacifique - Can progress further |
Mark Johnson’s challenge is hard to work out but Eternal
Heart would be the pick for me, as he comes here off a win last time out and
has only been raised 4lbs for that win. His confirmed stamina is a valuable
asset here and he’d be the pick over Malthouse and Art History who both looked
well held last time. Communicator seems well held by Purification on their maiden
form, while Dandana can also take a hand.
* All credit for any statistics used in this
Advice
Britannia Stakes (4.25)
1 pt each/way Tropical Beat (9/1 Boylesports)
King George V Handicap (5.35)
1 pt each/way Sud Paciifque (11/1 Bet365)
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